On a much lighter note............

The Daily Mail (yea, I know it's a British tabloid) had a "shocking" post the other day (thanks Laura!) about the climate change hypocrisy of certain famous celebrities. Just looking at their list I would say that Mr. Travolta is the worst offender of the bunch (a boeing 707 and a private runway. Are you kidding me!). Leo and Charles probably could have been left off the list. Sorry folks, Al Gore did not qualify. Here is the link to the story by Tom Sykes.

Congratulations Paul!

Paul Yeager, who is a forecaster and managing editor of AccuWeather.com has on several occasions graciously filled in for me on this blog just just released his first book Literally, the Best Language Book Ever. The book is a compilation and analysis of words, phrases and expressions that we should never use again. Paul has more about his book right here on his AccuWeather.com blog. Here is the link to Paul's book on Amazon.com.

Sorry Paul, I did not mean to lump you with the "high" journalistic quality of the Daily Mail, just bad timing. LOL.

Categories: Odd News

Posted at 7:36 AM
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The Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station overlooking the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

A new study, published in the Geophysical Research letters by scientists from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the Ohio State University shows that computer analyses of global climate have consistently overstated the warming in Antarctica, according to the ScienceDaily article.

The group found that observed Antarctica temperatures rose only by 0.4 F (0.2 C) over the past century, while the climate models simulated increases of 1.4 F (0.75 C). The computer models may have overestimated the amount of water vapor in the Antarctic atmosphere.

"This is showing us that, over the past century, most of Antarctica has not undergone the fairly dramatic warming that has affected the rest of the globe," according to NCAR scientist Andrew Monaghan, as they can now compare computer simulations with observations of actual climate trends in Antarctica over the past 50-100 years. The computer models are accurately simulating climate for the other six continents, according to the study.

One reason why the continent has not warmed that much is due to the ozone hole over Antarctica, which is cooling the middle and upper atmosphere and altering wind patterns in a way which keeps relatively warm air from reaching the ground. Here is a neat movie of the ozone hole through March of 2008, courtesy of the British Antarctic Survey.

The research team believes that this new information about the warming of Antarctica could reduce the IPCC's estimated sea-level rise of 7-23 inches over the next century by two inches.

Categories: Performance

Posted at 9:29 AM
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Fellow meteorologist and South American weather expert Jim Andrews showed me these unbelievable photos (my favorite is the second one) of the Chaiten volcano eruption down in southern Chili. I saw some great shots yesterday, but these just blew me away. You can see the large ash cloud and the glow of the volcano, then you have all this lightning. This is not unusual during an eruption and we saw some of this with Mt. St. Helen in Washington back in 1980.

The volcano began erupting on Friday with a 12-mile high plume. Many areas downwind, including parts of Argentina were covered with ash.

Large volcanic eruptions can easily influence the world's climate (cooling) for a period of time, causing a decrease in solar energy reaching the earth, as the tiny particles of ash remain in the high atmosphere and reflect the sunlight. I talked with Jim, who is also well versed in geology and geography, and he also feels that this particular eruption will probably be too small in size to have a large scale impact on the climate. The far southern location might also argue against it as well. Keep in mind, this eruption is still very new and neither of us are experts when it comes to volcanic eruptions, so our quick opinions could easily be out to lunch.

Jim Andrews also takes a close look at the volcano in his blog.

By the way, I had another post all lined up for today, but this particular server was down all afternoon and I couldn't do a thing with this blog. The volcano story was a quick one to post. I will get to the comments later this afternoon.

Categories: Off Topic

Posted at 11:56 AM
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Siberian permafrost and shallow lakes.

The Chicago Tribune ran a good article Monday about a Russian scientist who is studying the release of greenhouse gases, especially methane from the thawing permafrost underneath Siberian Lakes.

Methane, a greenhouse gas that is 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide, has been coming out from the ice like small geysers, according to Sergei Zimov, a long-time Russian scientist who has been doing much of the research in the cold, inhospitable region of northern Russia.

"Sometimes a big explosion happens, because the gas comes out like a bomb," Zimov said. "There are a million lakes like this in northern Siberia." The concern from Zimov and some U.S. scientists is that this thawing of the permafrost could accelerate global warming.

Sergei Zimov's outdoor lab is a large area of tundra and larch forest along the East Siberian Sea. Many of his collegues in Russia are not concerned about global warming, but Zimov's lonely work (28 years worth) has certainly drawn the attention from the U.S. as some of his work has been published in American Science Journals. Today, millions of dollars in grants from the West and from the Russian Science Foundation have turned Zimov's station into a hive of science. Zimov also has been receiving funding for his work through the Soros Foundation-Russia.

In Siberia, permafrost contains billions of tons of organic matter from the Ice Age. As the climate warms, permafrost on the banks of Siberian lakes collapses into the water, supplying bacteria with more organic material to consume and further raising the level of methane released into the air. This is a good example of positive feedback.

Zimov believes that the melting can be slowed, but not stopped. He has reintroduced certain grasses and herbivores which dominated northern Siberian steppes over 10,000 years ago. Zimov believes that steppe terrain inhibits permafrost thaw because it retains less heat than forests and lakes.

Categories: Science

Posted at 8:25 AM
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Over the past week we have heard all the stories about the recent demise of global warming or the idea that global warming will be taking an extended vacation before returning. Late last year, we heard that Arctic summers could be ice-free by 2013, but now we have heard that there is the chance that could happen as early as this summer. Who do you believe? I remain skeptical with a lot of these studies, either pro-warming or not, but I keep an open mind when I read these reports, knowing that some of these predictions could indeed end up having the right idea. We just do not really know for sure yet since there are so many variables to consider when you are talking climate, never mind a 5-day forecast. Anyway, here is a listing, along with links to some of the more noteworthy climate change predictions over the past several years. You can see how ideas change over a period of time as scientists try to gain more information.

"If there's one thing we know about science, it changes, it evolves, it's counterintuitive, and we learn things we didn't expect before." From Roger Pielke Jr, science policy specialist from the University of Colorado.

This "small" sampling is in no particular order..........

5/1/08....Next decade may see no warming due to changes in ocean currents. link

4/30/08....Warming to level off through 2014 mostly due to ENSO then surge thereafter. link Note: this is the same story as the one on the bottom.

4/28/08....We could reach the global warming tipping point within 2-3 decades. link

11/15/07.....Climate change accelerating, scientists warn. link.

01/03/08.....2008 will be one of the top ten warmest globally since 1850. link.

12/07/07......Rising CO2 will lead to wetter storms in the northern hemisphere. link.

12/21/07....More than 400 scientists cast doubt that man-made global warming threatens the planet. link.

01/23/08....Warming oceans reducing the # of landfalling U.S. Hurricanes. link.

03/04/08........Famous hurricane forecaster predicts global cooling in 10 years. link.

04/23/08.......Prepare for an ice age. link.

02/12/08......Sea level rise could be twice as high as current projections. link.

08/31/07.......Global warming will bring violent storms and tornadoes. link.

03/27/08.......Expect more warming of extreme temperatures. link.

07/25/07....Huge sea level rises are coming unless we act now! link.

10/3/07.....Earth will only heat up 8/10 of a degree over the next 100 years and the sun is the
major driver of this increase. link.

08/10/07.......Global warming will speed up after 2009. link.

04/30/08........Global warming will stop until at least 2015. link.

04/29/08.......PDO flip could mean cooler times for the West Coast. link.

05/19/03....New model predicts greater 21st century warming. link.

10/01/03....Solar contribution to global warming predicted to decrease. link.

09/16/06.....Scientists predict solar downturn, global cooling. link.

03/20/03..... Sun's Output Increasing in Possible Trend Fueling Global Warming. link.

11/06/97......Brightening sun is warming earth. link.

04/14/08....Warming will mean fewer, but more powerful tropical cyclones. link.

08/26/06....Russian scientist predicts global cooling in coming decades then a warmer interval. link.

04/29/07.....Humans are to blame for global warming. Easrth will warm 3.2 to 7.1 F by 2100 with sea level increase of 7 to 23 inches, according to IPCC. link.

05/11/07.....Eastern U.S. will face severe heat by 2080. link.

01/31/07....Sydney, Australia will see a 9 degree celsius increase in temp. by 2070. link.

08/13/07.....Expect CONTINUED warming over the next 10 years. (UK Met office). link.

04/27/08....Ten-year forecasts produced by the Met Office Hadley Centre CAPTURE this LEVELLING of global temperatures in the middle of this decade. From the article "Is global warming all over?" link.

Note: The above doesn't seem to jive with what they (UK Met) said in August of 2007 (see second paragraph from the bottom).

Anyway, I know there were a lot more predictions that put out there, but it has been a long day and I am tired. Good night.

Categories: Effects of global warming

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Katie Fehlinger of Headline Earth shows us how families in Nepal are using their own biogas plants to improve their livelyhoods.

Categories: video

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Researchers at the University of Oxford's Environmental Change Institute say that superficial and simplistic tabloid coverage and limited depth in reporting had contributed to a "significant divergence from the scientific consensus that humans contribute to climate change", according to the Guardian article.

Overall, the percentage of coverage that was deemed to accurately represent the scientific consensus on climate change ranged from 67-83% during the study period from 2000-2006. Only 1.8% of tabloid coverage was written by specialist correspondents, according to the research team.

Quality press has been generally accurate, according to the Oxford researchers, when it comes to the topic of climate change, but UK tabloids have a far wider readership with greater public influence. (note the readership tables in the study pdf.)

When interviewees were asked to comment on this divergence (between the quality press and tabloids), many pointed to constraints they faced as journalists and editors deriving from various politicaleconomic pressures, such as covering a broad range of news 'beats' with little specialist training and understanding,

"There is a really deliberately contrarian tone to threads, and though this is part of the irony and cynicism - to the extent that this influences the public understanding and perception it is detrimental," said co-author Max Boykoff.

Do you think the "quality press" in the U.S. has accurately represented the scientific consensus? I know many will argue that there is no real scientific consensus.

Do you notice this trend with any of the the U.S. tabloids? I really can't say, since I pretty much avoid them. Anyway, there is more than enough tabloid news now on the television.

By the way, What does Britney Spears think about global warming? Now that's the ultimate question!

Categories: Media

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A group of students from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has estimated the carbon footprint of Americans, ranging from the homeless to multimillionaires. The students found that anyone who lives in the United States contributes more than two times as much greenhouse gas to the atmosphere as the global average and that individual emissions rise steadily as their income increases.

The average annual carbon dioxide emissions per person, they found, was 20 metric tons, compared to a world average of 4 tons. The lowest anyone in the U.S. could reach was 8.5 tons for a homeless person eating in a soup kitchen and sleeping at a homeless shelter.

The students conducted detailed interviews or made detailed estimates of the energy usage of 18 lifestyles, spanning the gamut from a vegetarian college student and a 5-year-old up to the ultrarich--Oprah Winfrey and Bill Gates, according to the ScienceDaily article

In general, spending money on travel or on goods that have substantial energy costs in their manufacture and delivery adds to a person's carbon footprint

But the biggest factors in most people's lives were the obvious energy-users: housing, transportation and food. "The simple way you get people's carbon use down is to tax it," Professor Timothy Gutowski says.

You can use the carbon footprint calculator, courtesy of The Nature Conservancy to figure out how many tons of CO2 and other greenhouse gases your choices create each year. Feel free to post your number in the comment section. It will be fun to compare.

According to the Nature Conservancy the average amount of CO2 emissions per year for an individual in the U.S. is 27 tons. Their world average is 5.5 tons. My number was 19 tons.

Categories: Science

Posted at 10:15 AM
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Scientists from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) warn that most of the Arctic sea ice is currently thin, young ice (only around since last autumn) and that this type of ice is much more vunerable to rapid melting than older, thick ice.

Age of sea ice in the Arctic (March 2007 and March 2008). Image courtesy of the NSIDC.

What about Arctic sea ice area that was supposedly greater than last year at this time? Indeed, the Arctic sea ice area during March of 2008 was greater than it was in March of 2007, but the overall trend since 1978 is still on the decline.

Arctic sea ice extent each March since 1978. Image courtesy of the NSIDC

Image courtesy of the NSIDC.