Of Droughts and Fires
You know, climate isn't just about temperature. It's also about rainfall, weather patterns, stuff like that. There's a new study from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research out of the UK's Met Office which warns that drought could double or more by the end of the century. And that's the figure for moderate drought. Extreme drought could increase 10-fold, from 3 percent to 30 percent of the Earth's land surface, and severe drought could increase from 8 percent to 40 percent of land. Moderate drought currently affects 25 percent of Earth's land surface, and that is forecast to increase to 50 percent. If you are a subscriber to the American Meteorological Society's Journals Online, you can read about this study here.
Increased drought will mean increased wildfires, and this fire season has been the most severe on record in the western states. If that trend continues, we can expect to see changes in the ecology of the West with the potential for extinction of plant and animal species. In addition, wildfires emit tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, adding yet another layer of feedback into the climate picture.
Comments (7)
Try reading this study:
Herweijer, C., R. Seager and E.R. Cook. 2006. North American droughts of the mid to late nineteenth century: a history, simulation and implication for Mediaeval drought. The Holocene, 16, 159-171.
It may change your mind. Not only did they find that droughts occur in warmer periods (including the 1930's when drought conditions were more severe and more persistent than any present droughts), they found that droughts occurred during the Little Ice Age. They also found that there were even worse droughts a thousand years ago during the Medieval Warm Period.
Posted by Paul Hildebrandt | November 15, 2006 4:03 PM
The BBC had an excellent report today on how farmers in Kenya (the Masai tribe, I believe) are having to make drastic changes in their cattle production due to drought caused by the certain effects of global warming...their cattle are dying. In many instances, they have had to resort to farming, something that is not in their tradition.
Posted by Murton | November 16, 2006 4:31 AM
Well I think all this global warming info is just cycles the weather has been doing for quite a while. When the weather isint just what we think it should be its like "oh its global warming" the sky is falling the ski is falling. I think theres a much greater risk to man than global warming, like nuclear war
worker in Alaska
Posted by alex | November 17, 2006 7:08 PM
Paul is correct. The most severe drought to hit North America occured across the Eastern Seaboard during the Little Ice Age. It was not only extremely dry, but its duration was about 150 years. Virginia Cedar tree rings(which are excellent precipitation proxies) confirmed by ancedotal and written history showed. From about 1550 to 1680, little or no precip occured along the Tidewater states. Spanish missionaries abandoned thier missions in the Carolinas, and settlers in Jamestown starved.
Other droughts across Europe and Asia also can be attributed to the LIA. The North Atlantic Oscillation was in high mode through much of coldest periods. Cold Polar air over Asis is advected westwards and southward. The storm track of the N. Atlantic shifted southwards over the Med and N. Africa. Cold,dry conditions resulted.
Posted by JP | November 17, 2006 7:21 PM
Superb! (I wrote something else and then I read below that I aint supposed ter. So I deleted it.)
Posted by shemales stories | January 30, 2007 11:03 PM
Can someone tell me if sydney australia has had a 7 year drought with no prospect for change. is it a sustainable city?
Posted by wayne | July 25, 2007 12:08 AM
Am I the only one who remembers the global cooling during the late 70's and early 80's? Tree huggers used the same "sky is falling" scare tactics as they are today with global warming! I was in elementary school back then and remember school programs leading us to believe we were all going to freeze to death! Knuckleheads!
Posted by lane | December 3, 2007 3:11 PM