2006 Hurricane Season
An article this morning in the South Florida Sun-Sentinel addresses the debate surrounding the connection between global warming and stronger hurricanes. The 2005 season, with the huge number of storms and the very intense storms which occurred, was pointed to as evidence of the link. Other scientists, like Chris Landsea, science and operations officer of the National Hurricane Center, say that storms will strengthen as ocean water warms, but only by a small fraction. Still other scientists say that because it is the difference between air temperature and water temperature which fuels stronger storms, stronger storms would not necessarily result from global warming.
The article also points out that it's important not to just look at storms in the Atlantic, but to look at tropical activity throughout the world's oceans. Judith Curry, a professor of atmospheric sciences at Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta said the rest of the world's oceans were more active this year.
In my opinion, we don't have enough years of accurate hurricane information to say much about trends in numbers or in intensity of storms. Prior to the satellite age, there were storms which formed and dissipated over the oceans without ever being counted. And as for the current age, no one would care if there were 20 category 5 storms in a year if none of them made landfall. The single most important paragraph in this story is the last - a quote from Florida State University meteorology professor James O'Brien:
"We still have 1,000 people a day coming to Florida, and they want to live near the water," he said. "So we need to be prepared."
As long as the population continues to migrate toward our vulnerable coastlines, and to bring a lot of wealth with it - building expensive homes, etc. - our risk for large-scale disaster continues to increase, no matter whether hurricanes are becoming more intense or not.
Comments (6)
Global warming is total fiction. This is just a ruse after money. There aren't any actual facts to support this theory.
Posted by Vicki | December 1, 2006 1:02 PM
Global warming is total fiction. This is just a ruse after money. There aren't any actual facts to support this theory.
There are few institutions more conservative, more determinedly driven by fact and risk, and more concerned about money than the insurance industry -- specifically, the property insurance industry.
Perhaps those who, like Vicki, maintain that "Global warming is total fiction" might try insuring a coastal property.
You check out this link from RealtyTimes -- hardly a bastion of liberal mythology.
Here's the lead:
If global warming's impact on the environment isn't enough to get you to change your energy guzzling ways, maybe soaring homeowners insurance costs will get your attention.
Here's something you can take to the bank -- those individuals and companies who have the largest economic stakes in the outcome of this discussion are voting with their wallets.
Think about THAT the next time you tell yourself that it's all a liberal media conspiracy or a "ruse after money."
Posted by BrooklineTome | December 2, 2006 4:48 PM
I am just glad to see that this point was finally made:
"Still other scientists say that because it is the difference between air temperature and water temperature which fuels stronger storms, stronger storms would not necessarily result from global warming."
Global Warming alarmists miss that point quite a bit. Storms are built based on temperature differences, not simply heat.
Posted by Greg Simmons | December 2, 2006 10:38 PM
if you lived on the Baja Peninsula, the Phillipines or Australia you would be calling this year one of the worst for tropical cyclone activity. We in the US forget that only about 13% of all tropical storms occur in the Atlantic Basin.
Posted by mauri pelto | December 3, 2006 4:24 PM
mauri pelto wrote: "if you lived on the Baja Peninsula, the Phillipines or Australia you would be calling this year one of the worst for tropical cyclone activity."
Well I doubt that you live in any of those places either mauri. And if it was so bad people who live there are welcome to tell us so themselves.
Global warmeing whether real or not, isn't anything we can solve. Geologic evidence proves that the earth has warmed and cooled many times over its existence and we have nothing to do with it. I want clean air and water as much as the next person, but I am not willing to pay an unreasonable price for it. Besides, in the US we have clean air and water, the real problems are in the third world and developing nations.
At the current time it is impossible to to predict the weather with any accuracy more than 3 days in advance. Why should anyone believe our so-called experts can accurately predict what will happen over hte next 200 years? Anyone who believes the global warming nonsense is a fool.
And for those who wish to retort that we should do all that we can to prevent it just in case its true, my answer is no, we should not.
Posted by woodNfish | December 4, 2006 2:20 PM
Maybe you can shed some light on a theory of mine, because I'm no meteorologist. I'm just wondering whether the lackluster hurricane season in the Atlantic failed to dissipate the heat built up in the warm seas this summer. Could that heat stored in the water be playing a part in our non-winter in the east? Are we paying for a lack of hurricanes in an equal lack of snow?
Posted by Christopher Elbich | January 4, 2007 6:54 AM