A Little More on El Niño and Warming
Had a number of comments on yesterday's entry on Warming and Weather. First of all, commenter Dion linked Monday's RealClimate entry on El Niño, Global Warming, and Anomalous U.S. Winter Warmth. The folks at RealClimate point out that in an ordinary El Niño winter, the amplitude of warming across the northern half of the U.S. averages about 1 degree C (2F). This year's warming is roughly 5 times that amount. They also point out that last winter was also anomalously warm, despite a weak La Nina. That warmth was most striking in January of 2006. They conclude that it's impossible to determine what role each factor is playing in our current warmth.
In reality, the individual roles of deterministic factors such as El Nino, anthropogenic climate change, and of purely random factors (i.e. "weather") in the pattern observed thusfar this winter cannot even in principle be ascertained. What we do know, however, is that both anthropogenic climate change and El Nino favor, in a statistical sense, warmer winters over large parts of the U.S. When these factors act constructively, as is the case this winter, warmer temperatures are certainly more likely. Both factors also favor warmer global mean surface temperatures (the warming is one or two tenths of a degree C for a moderate to strong El Nino). It is precisely for this reason that some scientists are already concluding, with some justification, that 2007 stands a good chance of being the warmest year on record for the globe.
I also had a commenter raise the question of what effect global warming will have on El Niño. The short answer is we don't know. Some have speculated that El Niño/ENSO events will be more frequent or more intense, but no one knows. For more information, see RealClimate, The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology.
In off-topic news - I'm under the weather today, so this will likely be my only post today. I may be slower than normal in posting comments or responding to email over the next few days. Please bear with me.
Comments (5)
for how long do we (people) have measurable data global tempertures and trends, and are these consistnt with the geologic methods of estimating tempertures for the same periods? The larger question being what are the longer term trends in cooling and warming? The the cycles themselves cycles upon cycles ?
thank you
Posted by G.E. McKelvey | January 10, 2007 6:04 PM
If there were less obese people eating themselves to excessive flatulence, then the ozone layer over the southern hemisphere would not have such a huge hole.
Posted by David Paterson | January 10, 2007 9:18 PM
Thanks for the valuable info in this entry! BTW - 2006 was the warmest for China in 55 years as well according to a recent study, by the Chinese govt. The Chinese Met Office also cites El Nino as major factor. One hopes that a non El Nino year in the future won't generate the rash of "hottest year on record" stories.
Posted by The Melting Glacier | January 11, 2007 8:59 PM
Warm winter? Hah! Just lost several thousand dollars of citrus due to...well it certainly couldn't be called warming!
Posted by mark in az | January 15, 2007 10:25 AM
I find it hard to take serious people who are wrong more often than not about the local weather. If I was correct only 15-20 percent of the time at my job I would be fired! BTW I was a participant in the worlds largest traffic jam during the evacuation for Hurricane Rita. You remember Rita, the hurricane that was suppose to wipe out Houston but went in to Beaumont instead. Not even a rain shower in Houston if I remember correctly.
It only took me 7 hours to get to Austin instead of the usual 3 hours. The only reason that it didn't take me 20 hours like the lemmings on the freeway, is that I took the Farm to Market(FM) roads and stayed off of the freeway.
How many people died or ended up in hospitals from sitting in traffic for hours on end. And lets not forget the bus load of people that caught of fire near Dallas after evacuating from Houston.
Dont get me wrong, I would rather have the hurricane flags hoisted rather than wiping out a city. However, I find it hard to trust the Chicken Littles that keep screamming that the sky is falling. It seems to me I remember that most of the hurricane 'forcasters' were calling for another hurricane season like last years. Yea right, that came to be. Not! Take a sentence fro the above artice. "I also had a commenter raise the question of what effect global warming will have on El Ni�o. The short answer is we don't know.". Yep, I'll buy that.
Forgive me if I dont believe the weather types.
Posted by Total Skeptic | January 17, 2007 12:05 AM