Global Warming, Wind Shear and Atlantic Hurricanes
I've written a lot about the debate surrounding the effect global warming will have on hurricane activity, particularly in the Atlantic. A new study from scientists at the Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science at the University of Miami and NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), scheduled to be published today in Geophysical Research Letters concludes increasing wind shear could decrease Atlantic Hurricane activity.
Vertical wind shear is one of the most significant inhibitors of tropical cyclone development, and can quickly weaken an already developed tropical system. Using 18 different computer models, researchers found an increase in wind shear due to a slowing of the Pacific Walker Circulation.
Chris Landsea, Chief Science and Operations Officer at the National Hurricane Center, has weighed in with his opinion of this new research at Prometheus.







Comments (6)
Why are the temperatures on Mars and Venus increasing.
If glaciers are built from the top wouldn't global cooling and lack of moisture and snowfall cause glaciers to deteriorate and become smaller!
Regards, Ted Gilbert with 52 years experience
with Paleozoic, Mesozoic, Cenozoic formations.
Posted by Ted J. Gilbert | April 19, 2007 12:27 AM
In the aftermath of Katrina, many in the science community got the limelight when they blamed the 2006 Hurrican Season on AGW. Despite decades of hard research into the complexities of tropical storms, many of these scientists point to one variable that held the clue: extended warm global surface temperatures.
This issue highlights the gulf between operational meterologists and climate scientists/enviormentalists. One side looks at phyiscal causes, while the other(s) look at statistics. Meterologists all along pointed and continue to point to a complex set of physical variables which determine tropical storm developement (teleconnections, SST anaomolies, source regions, etc...). Climatologists churn out statistical analysis of dendro studies, temp histories, and analysis of our atmospheric chemsitry. Meterologists have thier reputations at stake. Insurance Companies, FEMA, aviation, bankers, and the public at large use thier forecasts in one way or another. Climatologists have the luxury of publishing one study, and if it doesn't work, can go back to the chalkbaord and try again with thier repuatations intact.
Climatologists are now inching thier way into the domain of Meterologists. We are constantly being reminded of the differences between climate and weather (which I agree, BTW). However, climatologists should also live by the same standard. The current IPCC TAR is getting close to predicting the weather -this is certainly true of Tropical Storms. AGW theory has reduced the timeframe from centuries to now mere decades. Tropical Storm variability in the North Atlantic is determined by multidecadal SST variations, and now there may be another player involved: The Walker Cell. But the Walker Cell is determined in part by Pacific SSTs.
This new study may not be the end all of this issue. But it does go to show how much more complex our atmosphere is than the AGW theorists will admit.
Posted by JP | April 19, 2007 8:58 AM
This is becomming comical. I knew after the last hurricane season when the predictions of global warming creating hundreds of insanely intense hurricanes didn't work out that someone would come up with a way for global warming to stop hurricanes. The notion is totally rediculous. What this proves is that the climate is so complex that nobody really has a very good idea of how it works. I PROMISE YOU. If there are a lot of hurricanes this summer, we will be right back to global warming causing them. Because, whatever it is, global warming causes it.
Posted by Jon | April 19, 2007 9:45 AM
well, this is an interesting study. The complexity of th atmosphere is far more than we realize so simply changing one variable, temperature may not have the results they say it will. That is an interesting development and a blow to global warming activists...
Posted by some1 | April 20, 2007 10:32 AM
As usual the bases are being covered. It was obvious after last years lack of hurricanes something had to be invented to explain it and yet still adhere to global warming. Here it is. Similarly, when glaciers melt or retreat, it's global warming; when they grow or advance it's more snow due to global warming. The funny thing is, this increase in snow only seems to happen to some glaciers; those that need a reason why they're growing in spite of global warming of course.
Posted by iceman | April 20, 2007 11:31 AM
Sorry to those who think this means anything to AGW. Face it, a hallmark of junk science remains the ability to survive while dancing around conflicting data and predictions. The mantra will be "Well, that is how science workz and if you don't agree with us then you are just too stupid to understand reel science!"
Posted by Kamatu | April 20, 2007 11:33 PM