A Climate Change Mega Disaster, says the UN
Sir John Holmes, a British diplomat who is also known as the UN's under-secretary-general for humanitarian affairs, said dire predictions about the impact of global warming on humanity were already coming true, according to an article in the Guardian. A record number of floods, droughts and storms around the world this year amount to a climate change "mega disaster", warned Holmes.
The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (Ocha) has issued 13 emergency "flash" appeals so far this year, which is already 3 more than the previous record set back in 2005.
According to the UN, only half of the international disasters two years ago dealt with by Ocha had anything to with climate, while this year all but one of 13 emergency appeals is climate related. Here I go again, while the UN could eventually end up being correct in their viewpoint, I feel that we need more weather data and other evidence to compare over a much longer period to establish a trend in order to prove that many of these individual disasters were indeed directly related to climate change and not just a rare, extreme weather event or an ongoing atmospheric circulation. They may be on to something, but it is just too early in the ballgame to be that certain about it in my opinion. What do you think?



Comments (42)
Climate Mega Disatre! Global Warming to Climate Mega Disaster! Reeally!? Germany gets a good old fashioned flood this spring/summer and so does England and Now Spain just got Remarkable Flooding rains and Spain has been Cold and Wet all summer long according to relatives I have in Spain. South Africa getting Great spring Rains, A new forest has "appeared" in Niger and much of the Sub-Saharan countries have been getting lots of flooding. The horn of Africa is getting rains after almost thirty years of drought. Of course there are floods, Floods happen and have been long overdue in many places. There is more vegitation now, more oxygen and weather is certainly still weather! Terrible! Aquafirs are getting recharged... In USA the decades of droughts have been reduced to the South East...Many western States have been getting remarkable amounts of rain...L.A. got rain in September after long dryt spell. Death Vally got rain recently. Intermountain West is GREEN....ALL SUMMER.....What A crisis!
Posted by george n | October 8, 2007 2:41 PM
BS. Take a look at the Crisis Map. Floods caused by hurricanes are included as "Climate" along with areas just a couple hundred miles away that are experiencing drought. Let's not forget India, they had floods too, but have not begged for Aid like the others.
Flood catastrophies are mentioned in all cultures folklore because they have been affecting man and animal since the dawn of time.
This is a means to get money. You will see more and more appeals for "help" based on climate now that people know where the money is.
Andrew, Simon, any apocalyptic visions?
Posted by Natural GW Steve | October 8, 2007 3:01 PM
I think it is a quantum leap on the part of Sir John Holmes, a diplomat, to declare that all but one of these natural disasters was caused by anthropogenic global warming. We can forgive Sir John for his rush to judgment if his motives are to spur donations to help the people affected by these events. After all, wouldn't you jump on the global warming bandwagon if you thought that your appeals for humanitarian relief would find a more sympathetic audience? Let's not forget that Sir John is the UN's under-secretary-general for humanitarian affairs.
One of the disasters he attributes to AGW was a cat 5 hurricane that struck Nicaragua. The causal link between AGW and hurricanes has not been established with any degree of certainty so this is a real stretch. We were told to expect more frequent and more intense hurricanes after Katrina but it didn't occur. So far, the 2007 hurricane season here has been quiet. If AGW is creating a world-wide mega disaster then why isn't it happening in our little part of the greenhouse?
Posted by Rick Ressler | October 8, 2007 3:03 PM
YAAAAAWWWWNNNNN!!!...Did someone at the UN say something????
Posted by Oiznop | October 8, 2007 3:18 PM
What has happened this year is nothing compared to what is coming.
While there may be some doubt right now, there won't be in the future.
Posted by Andrew | October 8, 2007 3:29 PM
I think Mr. Holmes needs to curb his impulse to hype. An observation period of only three years is far too brief to conclude the existence of a trend.
Posted by Pete28 | October 8, 2007 3:31 PM
More headline-grabbing bogus junk masquerading as fact when in actuality, none exists.
When are the masses going to say enough is enough!? When are the local pro-agw posters here going to see this garbage for what it is, instead of parroting the U.N. guessing game?
Posted by Chris | October 8, 2007 4:06 PM
Yes, no surprise the UN wants to suck the US dry.
Just back from a walk in very cool evening air in England. Forecast to get down to 41F tonight. This past summer it made all the way up to a blistering 82F in London. I can see why Mr. Holmes is so terribly concerned.
Don't these Chicken Little's ever get a clue? The storyline is repeated every generation, same story different characters. Take a valium, see a psychiatrist, but please leave the sane people alone too enjoy life.
http://www.reason.com/news/show/27702.html
Earth Day 1970 provoked a torrent of apocalyptic predictions. "We have about five more years at the outside to do something," ecologist Kenneth Watt declared to a Swarthmore College audience on April 19, 1970. Harvard biologist George Wald estimated that "civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind." "We are in an environmental crisis which threatens the survival of this nation, and of the world as a suitable place of human habitation," wrote Washington University biologist Barry Commoner in the Earth Day issue of the scholarly journal Environment. The day after Earth Day, even the staid New York Times editorial page warned, "Man must stop pollution and conserve his resources, not merely to enhance existence but to save the race from intolerable deterioration and possible extinction."
Posted by Patrick Henry | October 8, 2007 4:47 PM
Forty years ago it was "A new Ice Age coming!" Now it is global warming. There have been weather cycles for a few million years, so what else is new?
The UN is trying to re-fill the trough at which its bureaucrats feed!
Posted by Stan | October 8, 2007 5:01 PM
Why do the Feds and States monitor CO,CO2,SOX & NOX stack emissions if they do not cause global warming or for that matter even harm the environment or the ecosystem?
I work at an incinerator in the control room and if I allow any of these emissions to exceed the parameters set fouth by the Federal Government or the State the company can get fined or worse, I can go to jail for exceeding (RCRA) permits.There is a reason for this and it is because they already know it harms the environment/ecosystem.
They already know it will NOX our SOX off.
At my old job in the control room for a fossil fuel power plant in the early 1980s I remember when these monitors were not in place and they had to install them. The day they installed them is what changed my mind on the issue. If it causes no harm then why should I go to jail for a mistake that doesn't effect anything??
So anyone who tells you it doesn't harm the environment/ecosystem send them to me and I'll give them the facts.
What is really going to drive our power bills up more in the future is when they start collecting the CO2 and start monitoring/collecting heavy metals like mercury,lead,antimoney,arsnic and vanadium pentoxcide emissions. Our power bills will become very expensive.Take it from someone who works with this stuff everyday from the control room.
My "Underwater Suspension Tunnels" prevent all this.
Posted by Patrick | October 8, 2007 5:11 PM
maybe instead of banging on about it and blaming us for it AND taxing us for it they should start getting prepared for it and telling the public how to prepare for what MAY happen.
Posted by emma | October 8, 2007 7:29 PM
A severe heat wave occurred across much of the central, southeast, and eastern parts of the Southern U.S. throughout much of August 2007. The impacts of this heat wave are still being assessed as above-normal temperatures persist across much of the Southeast. More than 50 deaths have been attributed to the excessive heat. Numerous all-time record highs were set in August, along with scores of new daily high temperatures.
The highest human toll came in the state of Tennessee, which lost 15 people to the heat, 14 in the Memphis area alone. Alabama reported 12 fatalities to the heat, Missouri lost 9, and Arkansas and Georgia each had 4 fatalities.
The combination of the exceptional drought and the prolonged heat wave has taken a heavy toll on the agriculture industry across the Southeast. Many crops have been severely damaged from a combination of excessive heat and prolonged dry or drought conditions in the central, southeast, and eastern parts of the Southern U.S. Soil moisture values are extremely low across much of the central and southeastern U.S. The USDA reported that 81 percent of the Alabama corn crop is in poor or very poor condition as of August 23 and the corn crop in many parts of Tennessee is forecast to be a total loss.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/aug/aug-heat-event.php
Posted by Andrew | October 8, 2007 9:40 PM
It isn't global warming, it's global bottling of the H2O resources. The ice caps are not repleneched because all of the water is bottled up and on shelves in supermarkets, 7-11s, and all the quickie marts all over the world! I bet Al Gore even has a half full bottle of poland springs in the cup holder of his SUV! Dump out any un-drank water from those bottles people! Stop locking up all the water! there has been the same amount of water since the dinosauers. It's just locked away from recycling in bottles made of plastic!
H2O
Posted by H2O | October 8, 2007 11:49 PM
The more of these comments now, the better. In fact it is the AGW shooting themselves in the foot. Let it go all the way, I say (especially when the average global temps continue to fall and Solar cycle 24 arrives (if ever!)).
Posted by Vincent | October 9, 2007 1:11 AM
Then, on the other hand, During 1999--2002, a total of 4,607 death certificates in the United States had hypothermia-related diagnoses listed as the underlying cause of death or nature of injury leading to the underlying cause of death... Exposure to excessive natural cold ... was the underlying cause in 2,622 deaths. Hypothermia ... was the nature of injury in 1,985 deaths with underlying causes of death other than exposure to excessive natural cold (e.g. falls, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, or drowning).
Let's see, during the 4-year period, that's about 1152 deaths/year, 96/month, or just shy of 1.9/state/month. And all this during the unprecedented warming of the past 2,000 years. Wow!!
During 1979-2002, a total of 8,966 heat-related deaths were documented in the United States.
That would be 374 heat related deaths per year, 31/month, or 0.62/state/month over the 24 year period.
Now, I can see why we would want to return to those cold days of yester year.
Posted by Paul | October 9, 2007 1:59 AM
Sounds like the promotion for a low budget movie.
Posted by Michael J | October 9, 2007 7:51 AM
"A severe heat wave occurred across much of the central, southeast, and eastern parts of the Southern U.S."
I do recall an Accuweather meterologist discussing the heatwave a few months ago and specifically encouraging people not to jump to the conclusion that it was related to "global warming" as similar episodes of heat occurred in the 30's, 40's and 50's. Brett, please feel free to correct any inaccuracies.
Posted by Michael J | October 9, 2007 7:57 AM
Andrew,
So crops never failed until AGW???? WOW!!!
Posted by Jeff | October 9, 2007 8:30 AM
Patrick
You measure CO and CO2 to get an evaluation of combustion efficiency. If the incinerator doesn't burn the wastes completely, bad stuff that is hard to measure could be exhausted. Dioxins for example.
Some regulations regulate oxygen content in the incinerator exhaust - again as an indicator of other problems. They aren't concerned about too much oxygen escaping into the atmosphere.
Posted by mrsund | October 9, 2007 9:14 AM
What has happened this year is nothing compared to what is coming.
While there may be some doubt right now, there won't be in the future.
REPLY: oooooh....the big bad puddy tat is coming to get me!!!!....I'd better hide my wittle head, or wun to the doodie doodie government for help!!!!!!!
Save America from hot air. EXPELL THE UNITED NATIONS!!!!
Posted by Oiznop | October 9, 2007 9:17 AM
Andrew you may want to read up on something called the dust bowl. Drought has happened before and will happen again. I know farming practices amplified the problem in the 1930's but the point is heat waves and drought have caused much more severe problems in the past. BTW as Mark likes to point out, one warm month does not constitute climate change.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dust_Bowl
Posted by SM | October 9, 2007 9:17 AM
Global Warming from greenhouse gases are predicted to result in drying conditions across much of the southern and centrual US as well as Mexico.
For example, on Saturday afternoon of February 24, 2007, a large dust storm originating in the West Texas area of Amarillo covered much of the North Texas area. Strong winds caused extensive property damage to fences, roof shingles, and some buildings. The DFW Airport was severely affected, causing extensive flight delays into and out of the DFW area. Area residents suffered respiratory problems and allergic reactions, causing many people to visit hospitals.
It is too early to know if this is just a random event or the beginning of a trend, but it has been a long time since the last significant dust storm in the US. 1971 maybe.
So, how many dust storms do we need to get in the US to assign it to climate change?
Just wondering.
Posted by Andrew | October 9, 2007 10:30 AM
Andrew-
“The day they installed them is what changed my mind on the issue. If it causes no harm then why should I go to jail for a mistake that doesn't effect anything??”
Apparently naivety runs rampant in the AGW world and in nuclear facilities. The argument of “they know better” is complete nonsense and a reason to question everything.
The answer is, “Because it is the law!” NO more or No less!
It does not have to make sense.
FYI- Many environmental and “Safety Laws” laws are made general and then leave it up to people in that department to make the actual determination of what exactly must be monitored. It’s called Administrative Law. While carrying penalties and fines is it different from “criminal law” in that Rules and regulations are made AFTER the law is passed. Funny but usually these underlings are usually liberal arts folks waiting to get into law school or politics and have NO scientific backgrounds or idea what they are talking about. However, they are the ones putting the rules & regulations together and eventually it becomes enforceable law.
Example: The state of New Jersey passed a worker safety law requiring the Dept. of Environmental Protection to make a list of dangerous chemicals. Every dangerous chemical on their list forced all businesses to inventory and label every product containing “these dangerous chemicals” no matter what the quantity or dilution. The folks in the DEP came up with a list of chemicals they thought should be monitored. One of the chemicals was acetic acid.
I called the DEP in Trenton and asked if they were seriously saying every business had to list all products containing acetic acid no matter what dilution or form. I got an upper management person who developed the list, lecturing me on how dangerous acetic acid was.
She told me, “How could you be so callous as to try avoiding listing the products using acetic acid?”
I asked her how she wanted the mustard, ketchup, sauerkraut, and dill pickles labeled in the cafeteria.
I was told “Don’t be ridiculous why would you label food, when we are talking about acetic acid?”
My response was, “Lady dilute acetic acids’ common name is VINEGAR!”
I later found out the person compiling the list had a PhD in English with no science background at all. Yet there was penalty of fine and/or imprisonment for failure to comply.
SO much for “If it causes no harm then why should I go to jail for a mistake that doesn't effect anything??”
And on the Federal level……………..
The FDA has a law that requires sterile water in a sealed glass ampoule to have an expiration date!
Note: Sterile water in an intact pharmaceutical grade ampoule will remain sterile water for centuries. Reason why it must have an expiration date?: It’s the law! The law and sense have nothing to do with each other.
“So anyone who tells you it doesn't harm the environment/ecosystem send them to me and I'll give them the facts.”
LOL! The only problem is the source of the facts is sometimes completely devoid of science or reality. (A common theme in the AGW universe)
When is the AGW faithful going to understand that “Nonsense is nonsense no matter what Government entity makes a proclamation.”?
Posted by ted | October 9, 2007 11:11 AM
"Just back from a walk in very cool evening air in England. Forecast to get down to 41F tonight."
That's nice, Patrick. Here where I am, it's in the low 90s at noon, a full 25 degrees above normal. Fourth straight day of setting a record. All-time highs for October have occurred at many locations east of the Rockies this past week.
But hey, as long as it's cold where you are, AGW must not be occurring.
Posted by Mark | October 9, 2007 1:17 PM
Andrew,
So, how many dust storms do we need to get in the US to assign it to climate change?
According to AGW protocols, just one dust storm is sufficient to be called a trend.
Posted by Paul | October 9, 2007 2:07 PM
The Feb 2007 dust storm in Texas that Andrew tried to expand into some unusual occurance has been going on forever here. We call the west Texas dust storms "top dressing" for our golf courses in north Texas. I have been observing them for at least 64 years. One of the main reasons they are usually not so bad now adays is all the irrigation out west that really expanded in the 1970s. The air was choked for about 3 hours. Nothing like the days of airport problems caused by snow storms. Interesting facts: The lake that feeds north Texas counties was 14 feet below conservation level on 1/1/07. By the end of August, it was overflowing the spill way. Our three year drought was broken in 6 months. Our summer was below normal for heat which offsets the "new" drought and heat in the SE. We usually have heat