AccuWeather.com
 Your Local Forecast  
Airport Search^
Airport Weather Forecast
X
 

Enter your airport code - See Common Codes
(example: BWI for Baltimore Washington Int.)

Radar Search^
Nexrad Radar Search
X
   

Enter your zip code
(example: 16801 for State College, PA)

Back to global warming center



Senior meteorologist with 18 years of experience at AccuWeather.
[ Bio ]

Headline: Earth
Headline: Earth™:
Katie Fehlinger hosts Headline: Earth, which takes an unbiased look at all sides of the global warming debate. The weekly show features the latest headlines related to global warming, along with interviews of prominent and newsworthy guests, including global warming legislation advocate and chairman of the Environment and Public Works Committee (EPW), Senator (D) Barbara Boxer of California and global warming skeptic and former EPW chairman, Senator (R) James Inhofe of Oklahoma. Visit Headline: Earth's video page to see any or all of Katie's videos.


July 2008
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
1 2 3 4 5
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
13 14 15 16 17 18 19
20 21 22 23 24 25 26
27 28 29 30 31
We'd like to hear your questions on global warming! You can send your questions here via email.

« Climate Modeling far from Precise | Main | Global Land Temperature Anomalies and Trends »

October 29, 2007

Could Cutting Emissions Intensify Global Warming?

James Lovelock, scientist, pro-nuclear environmentalist and inventor of the Gaia theory says that a rapid cutback in greenhouse gas emissions could accelerate global warming. By the way, the Gaia theory states that the earth behaves like a single, super organism.

Lovelock says that current global warming is being offset by global dimming, in which aerosol particles from industrial pollution are causing 2-3 degrees of cooling.

Keep in mind, this is all assuming that global emissions are stopped suddenly, something that in my opinion is highly unlikely to ever occur, unless the whole world gets nuked, and then it wouldn't really matter would it.

Prof Lovelock believes that even the gloomiest predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are underestimating the current severity of climate change because they do not go into the consequences of the current burden pollution in the atmosphere which will last for centuries, according to the article from the Telegraph.

Lovelock argues that we have set off a vicious cycle of "positive feedback" in the earth system whereby extra heat in the atmosphere, no matter what the source, is amplified, causing yet more warming. There's that that word "positive feedback" once again! (from the previous post).

Lovelock says that the IPCC's climate models fail to take into account that the earth is a living system where life in the oceans and land takes an active part in regulating the climate. If the models included the whole earth system in their equations they would show the global temperature becoming stable once again after the global temperature suddenly rises 6 celsius after the CO2 in the air exceeds 500 ppm. This contrasts with the current IPCC models that predict that temperature rises and falls smoothly with increasing or decreasing CO2.

Professor Lovelock still argues that greenhouse gas emissions should be cut and that deforestation needs to be lessened even though he feels that the changes are inevitable.

Do you agree with Lovelock's analysis?

Share this:

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://global-warming.accuweather.com/blog/mt-tb.cgi/568

Comments (37)

Patrick Henry:

The AGW community is starting to expose themselves as the bunch of crackpots that they are.

I saw Lovelock on the "cover of the Rolling Stone" this month. He has now joined Dr. Hook.

terry:

no offense, but Lovelock's a kook.

The shorter Lovelock (IMO) is: "I'm old, I'm going to die soon, therefore all of you are screwed. Ha Ha suckers."

I think it is also great that you're one of the few bloggers on climate change that actually is bringing some semblance of balance to the debate, but please, less kooky Lovelock. :)

Reply: I guess I could not resist

This is continuation of studies in Australia, which have shown a dimming effect in progress. A good overview of the fluctuations can found here (http://www.understand2008.com/warming) but I am not agreeing on the stabilization of 6+ degrees. Perhaps his interpretation is a plateau for 10 years - yes, but this will be at the cost of the poles, which will violently swing the other direction.

Looking at global patterns, if acceleration is indeed in effect, which most agree is the case. Then, once we have our rapid warming, it will be followed by a quick snap to the cool side (for every action, there is a reaction). This will then accelerate towards another ice age. I see this plateau occurring in mid 2030's, with a rapid shift in the 40's. Unfortunately, I am young enough to see this one play out.

Move over Mr. Toad, this one looks to be a bumpy ride ;)

cbmclean:

Dave Friedel,

I took a look at the link you posetd. It's interesting, but I honestly don't think that it is very well supported by current theory. Ovetr the last couple pf years I have come across a couple of theories wherby extreme global warming would ultimatly cause a severe drop in temperatures, eitehr in the North Atlantic, or in the more extreme versions, across much of the northern hemispheere. these are interesting theories, and I must admit, that there is a part of me that would be really excited to witness the onset of another ice age. (I have to keep telling myself that this "excitment" would mean death for billons and untold missery for billions more) however, I have not yet come across a convincing explanation as to how this would occur. None of the most reputable and most peer-reviewed scientists and organizations seem to support this hypthesis, so until I see good reason to put any stock in such scenarios, I will personally consider them just unfounded specualtion.

What do the rest of you guys think?

cbmclean:

As a side question
I am a big fan of Larry Cosgroves' weatherAmerica newsletter. It usually comes out on Sundays but I can't find it this week. Does anyone have any idea what's up with him?

Reply: I do not see it either. Maybe he is not feeling well, just like me. Brett

Patrick:

Would someone kindly tell Lovelock my "TUNNELS" have his "PIPES" beat???

Patrick, Why don't YOU tell him. I am sure you can find his email.

jon:

these people do not have a clue. The short of it is, be good stewards of your resources and there will not be a problem. By resources I mean, oil, gas, fission materials, ect. We should always strive to make things run more efficiently, but at the same time not impose stupid rules for the sake of felling good about yourself.

Patrick:

I am very good at finding emails but this guy Lovelock is a hard one to get off the net.

The "Tunnels" actually tackel the root cause of global warming by generating electricity therefore offsetting carbon unlike Lovelocks idea.

Nathan:

James Lovelock's idea of "Gaia" is simply ridiculous. However, I do believe the Earth has its own temperature regulator, keeping it from burning up, or becoming a "snowball" (freezing over pole to pole) again. It is basically homeostasis, but without the "planet is 'alive'" thing.

MJW:

The Gaia theory?!? Isn't that on the same level as the Easter Bunny theory? At best it should be referred to as the Gaia hypothesis, given there isn't, as far as I know, a specific term for fuzzy New Age musings.

Can someone who titles his book "The Revenge of Gaia" be taken seriously? Woo, spooky! (Reply: Well, tomorrow is Halloween you know.) Not to say Dr. Lovelock isn't a smart guy, but he's hardly the first smart guy who's also a bit of a kook.

----
And where are you going now that the Earth has a fever? I'm going to Daisyworld!

Patrick Henry:

The area of the planet with the cleanest air is Antarctica. It is also the area which has shown the least warming. Generally the air in the southern hemisphere is cleaner, and that hemisphere has been cooling.

Fairly solid evidence that the assertion "aerosol particles from industrial pollution are causing 2-3 degrees of cooling" is incorrect. Urban heat effects would seem to indicate that pollution causes warming.

Hope you feel better Brett. Reply: Thanks Patrick

Since carbon dioxide is cumalative cutting greenhouse emmisions will only lessen the problem and not cure it. We need to take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere.As far as I can see the only way to do this is by large scale reaforestation and stopping the existing burning of woodland.

Lovecock's assumption that aerosol particles are counteracting the warming effect of Greenhouse gases, actually has considerable evidence in its support. There is the famous post 9/11 data which showed that removing air craft flights from the United States for a few days made us 1 degree C - 2 degrees F - warmer. Thus Lovecock provides us with an argument in favor of a carbon fuel based aircraft industry.

Mark:

Of course the planet in a large living system. Only humans would think that they are be all, end all aspect of everything going on in our environment. Everyone conveniently forgets that if it weren't for climate change none of us would be here. Time to adjust to a new climate, just like when the last ice age collapsed and mankind began its great rise to prominence.

ted:

What a telling statement from this person. “This could involve paying indigenous peoples to protect their forests paying indigenous peoples to protect their forests"

So the benign paternalistic AGW crowd is superior and willing to stop people from using their resources. You decide and we pay! LOL (No doubt using carbon credits taxed from some US farmers use of diesel fuel) What glaring proof that the AGW zealots feel superior to everybody else. They know what’s best for all humankind and how to spend my money.
Hey if you guys are so sure this is a problem, be a leader and show us the way. You could start by living like the indigenous peoples you feel so morally superior to.
Quit wasting our time posting these ridiculous articles. This is way past pseudo-science, it is sheer nonsense.

Jim Arndt:

Hi Guys,

Hey Martin T. if we take all the CO2 out of the air we will all die! CO2 is a gas necessary for life to exist it is not pollution. CO2 is not a problem just ask Joe B. There are many factors that cause the climate to change like AMO, PDO, Land Use, Solar and other smaller things like CO2.

Patrick Henry:

Charles,

The post-9/11 data showed that removal of man made cirrus clouds caused higher daytime temperatures and lower nighttime temperatures. Global warming support is based largely on records which show higher nighttime temperatures in some portions of the northern hemisphere. Daytime temperatures have not changed significantly.

It is well understood that pollution causes nighttime temperatures to increase, which is inconsistent with Lovelock's claim.

Gabe:

Patrick Henry: "Daytime teperatures have not changed significantly"
I would like to see some real data on this. And not some of your false data that you love to post on this site.

Patrick Henry, how much did day time temperature increase during the post 9/11 flight curtailment? How much night time temperature drop? You claim that "Daytime temperatures have not changed significantly." But in fact, daytime temperatures appear to have risen considerably in the arctic during the summer. The arctic is the are where we have seen the most dramatic temperature increase.

Also do we have enough historical temperature date from the Antarctic to really be sure that is cooling? Can we rule out local weather conditions as a cause of the supposed Antarctic cooling? Some scientists believe that observed cooling can be accounted for by the combined effects of Ozone depletion and increases in atmospheric CO2 on Antarctic winds:
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2004.../2004GL020724.shtml

Has this hypothesis been proven false?

Paul:

Off-topic alert!!

Just thought I'd post this little nugget. Apparently, tropical cyclone activity has hit its lowest level since 1977. I'm at a loss to explain this what with global warming supposedly causing more and more hurricanes with greater and greater intensity. What gives?

I have heard Dr Lovelock speak and have read The Revenge of Gaia. The whole "interdependence" approach makes much more sense than the old mechanistic approach of "this part is broken, so let's fix it." Quantum physics is replacing Newtonian physics in many circles, but the old paradigm that says we are separate from and can control nature is a value that had its day and now its day is past. I have heard several knowledgeable speakers say recently that acting out of the motive of love is a necessity for whole-planet healing. The shift of consciousness predicted for 2012 will hopefully be a big shift in that direction. I believe Dr Lovelock loves this planet, Gaia, and has given his life to do what he can to heal it.

RICH:

Brett,

"Keep in mind, this is all assuming that global emissions are stopped suddenly, something that in my opinion is highly unlikely to ever occur, unless the whole world gets nuked, and then it wouldn't really matter would it."

Yes Brett, you are correct. It wouldn't or doesn't matter. Are people so naive to think that there is no way, no how going to be another world war, regardless who is in office? This is simply wishful thinking. Religion aside, odds are World War is going to happen. Peace will also happen, but not until after Armageddon. People are always pointing to "signs" of AGW. Well look at the "signs" of an impending apocolypse. Look at the news. Look in the Bible or the Koran. We are living in the information age, but no one is taking advantage. World War will arrive after a false peace agreement. A false peace agreement possibly brought forth by the EU.

I compare AGW believers to my sister in law. The way she feeds and takes care of her child. Always worried about this and that. She has lists of things to do and not to do, according to scientists. Is mommy going to have lists for her to follow when she is an adult? My point is that in the end, it doesn't matter what we do. You, me and everyone reading this blog is eventually going to die. Try arguing against this fact.

Fear was knocking at the front door. Faith came and opened the door. There was nothing there.

cbmclean:

Paul

If you notice, the site you posted noted that the number of named storms is above average. Unfortunately, the media will probably only pick up on this fact, and a few years from now,the 2007 season will be listed as above normal, so the layman/laywoman will nkot now that the intensity of the storms was much below average. I'm definitely in the AGW theory camp, and even I know that this data will probably be misconstrued. Very unfortunate.

Mark:

Patrick Henry thinks AGW isn't occurring, and yet, he thinks both dirty soot and pollution are warming our climate. In case he or anyone else didn't know, soot and pollution are anthropogenic

These radicals on the right can't even keep track of their own arguments.

Darren:

Mark:

Pleease...Everyone knows that pollution and dirty air is due to gas emissions from all of the wild animals on the planet. I mean they don't even use proper waste disposal. LOL.

Uh, actually, I kinda think that hurricane activity, whether defined by intensity or number, should go down if the planet is warming. The last two years seems to me to be better evidence of warming than not of warming. The fact that the AGW crowd always touts, bigger, badder, hurricanes as part of the scare tactics they use has always been one of my reasons as to why I kinda don't buy into their argument.

Besides, it is one thing to say the planet is warming, entirely another thing, to say man is playing a significant global part of it.

Mark:

Rich, glad to see that you're such an optimist.

Patrick Henry:

There are nearly seven billion people on the earth, competing for food, money, power, religious standing, land, reproduction, etc. Human history is full of conflict, disease, famine and pestilence. We live in the safest time and place ever. Lifespans are the longest. Freedoms are protected. We can travel at will and enjoy the amazing life God has given us. Child mortality is the lowest ever. Smallpox and Polio no longer destroys lives.

Wasting your time focusing on one minor topic which you can't control is lunacy. Just be glad it isn't getting colder - that would really suck. And always remember that Natural Selection favors not the strongest or the smartest, but the most adaptable.

simon:

In my little part of the world 10% of our states electricity is generated by windmills while coincidentally 10 % of the states electricity is consumed by one already huge uranium mining operation that will be expanded next year to develop one of the worlds biggest open cut mines supplying nuclear fuels to Asian nations.

Alternative energy in action at its very best

There is no threat to traditional energy suppliers ; our coal and gas exports will be in higher demand along with lead copper zinc and iron ore all those shelf fillers created for global consumption by Asia are not made from windmills or nuclear power stations.

Our states biggest problem is water, and a low and an ageing population that inhibits our economic growth due to