Sea ice is more than just a surface area as is 3 dimensional object.

While the surface area has almost reached where it was this time last years, the thickness is probably less. So, it will melt that much quicker come spring.

I fully expect to see a new record low in Sea Ice extent within the net 2 years due to increased global warming form CO2.

I wonder if anyone in Congress is planning a junket to Elismore Island this Winter? I hear the weather should be nice and brisk.

Brett,

similar to last year

I going to take exception to that remark.

During the last seven days, Arctic sea ice has increased from 7.5 to 8.2 million km2. That is a rate of nearly 3 million km2 per month. Last year at this time it was increasing at a much lower rate. Only 0.2 km2 over the next seven days.

The East Siberian Sea is now saturated and as a result, the very steep rise seen earlier in the month has slowed, but the Hudson Bay has started to freeze quite rapidly and soon the Sea of Okhotsk will begin it's annual freeze.

I'll stick with my prediction that the December freeze will be significantly faster than 2006.

Reply: How about an above-normal anomaly?

The current slope of the NH ice increase may mean that NH could reach normal or slightly higher by Jan 08, all conjecture of course but what will the AGW reply be if it happens? Prolongued Low solar activity could be starting to kick in + SST suggesting a cooling of of oceans in both NH and SH?

"While the surface area has almost reached where it was this time last years, the thickness is probably less. So, it will melt that much quicker come spring."

Actually, it all depends on which way the wind blows, as NASA recently showed. Surely you remember the article recently posted here in a previous thread.

"I fully expect to see a new record low in Sea Ice extent within the net 2 years due to increased global warming form CO2."

Don't hold your breath. Atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns have been responsible for the decline; not CO2. Unless the anomalous pattern of the past year continues, you can expect to see average levels return next year and in the coming years.

Vincent:

I believe the AGW reply has already been spoken as the first commentor here. This "new" ice doesn't really count since the thickness is probably less. Please see above.

Andrew:

I just about fell out of my chair, no IPCC reference on the thickness of ice? LOL

Seriously, first we hear about how the ice is gone and now it will be, sure there's ice, but only an icecube thickness.

Now if the ice comes back as PH has been thoroughly asserting, and I have no doubt about his research, and if it deemed appropriately thick, the MSM and the followers of Gore will do one of two things:

First completely ignore it, or second, state implicitly that the ice and cold is the next phase of AGW. My guess is they will be making pronouncements that helicopter fuel lines will freeze and the "flooding" in New York will freeze solid. Any body gonna see any movies The Day After Tomorrow? LOL

Have a Happy Thanksgiving everyone, even the AGWers. Eat lots, burn some fossil fuels, and watch football. And send a prayer to the Men and Women defending the world against those who would do the world harm. May they have an uneventful day.

Brett,

With the low Pacific SSTs and no sunspots, there is a good chance Arctic sea ice will be above normal this winter.

I know that ice in my driveway is above normal - as predicted by Accuweather. ;^)

Have a good T-day

Reply: Same to you Patrick.

There is no global warming. Icecaps ebb and flow naturally. North now receding. South is growing. Check your real facts by some one who is not under the gun to control people.

The rate of ice increase does intrigue but as Andrew pointed out, the depth must be lagging past years. I would also expect a slowing rate of increase. The ghg impact for the cryosphere is nugatory in my estimation

Andrew has an excelent point. The sea ice area may be close to last years mark, but what about the volume?

It is probably worth noting that temperatures in the Canadian Arctic have been running well below normal this month.
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/CYCB/2007/11/21/MonthlyHistory.html
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/CWEU/2007/11/21/MonthlyHistory.html

This location in the Northwest Territories is more than 20 degrees below normal.
http://www.wunderground.com/history/station/71916/2007/11/21/MonthlyHistory.html

They must have forgotten to read the IPCC report about the certainty of an Arctic melt down

Area /= volume. This new year ice was expected and will melt that much faster next year.

Note that new ice has a much higher salt content than old multiyear ice and has a lower melt point.

Happy Thanksgiving to all you folks.
At dinner tonight I was joking with the family that we should celebrate your Thanksgiving also & double the turkey fun.
Glad to see the sea ice increasing quickly ... hopefully enough of the Arctic can freeze up to prevent my Canuck ass from being done like tomorrows turkeys by GLO-BULL warming.
Everyone should head over for a look at Climate Audit where Steve has uncovered some more of Mann's " mistakes " .... actually to normal folk they are mistakes but Mann has yet to admit that his work is wrong. At least the IPCC finally dropped the hockey stick into the trash bin. Unfortunately they didn't see fit to publish or mention a correction or explaination.
Andrew I fail to see why the sea ice would be thin. It certainly is as cold as normal ( maybe colder ) in most of the Canadian arctic ... do you think the sea water is warmer? If you have actually spent any time walking or skating on ice you would know the answer but this boy is guessing that your ice time has been limited.
Be good,
Rick.

cmbclean,

Every year, most of the ice in the Arctic melts.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.area.jpg

In the winter, most of the ice gain is completely new ice. The thickness is a function of temperature. Last winter was very warm in the Arctic so the ice never got thick and melted quickly. This winter looks like it will be colder, and the ice will be larger in extent and thickness. It doesn't take a lot of days below zero to freeze a pond up several feet thick, and in the Arctic they can have many consecutive weeks below zero.

cbmclean: Andrew has an excellent point. The sea ice area may be close to last years mark, but what about the volume?

Yeah, excellent point. You know what would have even made it even more excellent? If he'd actually offered some evidence.

Could it be the Artic sea ice melt is lagging the global temp rise by 10 years or so? This means the anomaly graph is a inverse hockey stick, and we could see improvement before a continued deline.

Comments?

The reason you'd expect less depth as compared to last year at this time is because the areal extent is lagging. But if winter there is colder then last winter that would change as PH indicated.

The deniers brush off the historic lows of Arctic sea ice reached this summer by citing the NOAA report indicating it was caused by changes in ocean currents. They neglect to take into account what caused those changes in ocean currents? Why did these currents suddenly change and cause this rare severe melt back of the Arctic ice cap? The NOAA report did not address this but many scientists have predicted that global warming will have major effects on ocean water currents. Regardless the ice is disappering and disapearing fast. Many predict the Arctic will be ice free during the summmer within 5 to 10 years -- something that has not happened in over a million years. Not likely explained by a normal weather cycle. Something very serious is going on here and most likely modern man's activities have something to do with it.

The NOAA report did not address this but many scientists have predicted that global warming will have major effects on ocean water currents.

I'm ready to sign off on UN sponsored socialism because some uncited scientists have predicted some unspecified changes in ocean currents which might have affected the Arctic. Thx

Bob: Why did these currents suddenly change and cause this rare severe melt back of the Arctic ice cap?

I realize that accurate records of the Arctic ice coverage stretch way back to an age when disco roamed the earth, but I think further evidence is required to support the claim this event is rare or that there's something unusual about the current change that caused it.

Global warming tourists crash into non-existent sea ice.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7108835.stm

"One hundred passengers and crew have been rescued from a stricken tourist ship after it hit ice off Antarctica."

Bob,
I suggest you take a course in Oceanography 101. Ocean currents, both at the surface and below have an incrediable ability to transport heat poleward. Below is a story from last summer that illustrates this fact.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=464768&in_page_id=1770