Through the first eleven months, 2007 is so far the second warmest year in the period of instrumental data, second to 2005, according to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global temperature analysis, which is led by Dr. James Hansen, who will be featured in an interview next week with our own Katie Fehlinger.
What is noteworthy, according to Hansen, is the fact that the unusual warmth in 2007 occurred when solar irradiance is at a minimum and the Pacific has entered the cool phase, La Nina cycle.
In the analysis from Hansen's website, Hansen believes 2007 will remain in second place after the full year is taken into account, but there is also the slight chance that it could slip to third if December is unusally cold.
According to the GISS analysis..........
--The global mean temperature so far this year is running almost 1 degree F. (0.6 C) above normal.
--The greatest warming this year has been in the Arctic.
--The cooler, Pacific equatorial region west of South America shown on the temperature anomaly map reflects the building La Nina phase of the southern oscillation.
Hansen believes the natural variations of the southern oscillation and the solar cycle have minor, but not entirely insignificant effects on year-to year temperature change. Barring the unlikely event of a large volcanic eruption, a record global temperature exceeding that of 2005 can be expected within the next 2-3 years.
Hansen also acknowledges a minor data processing error in the GISS temperature analysis in early 2007, which he says does not affect the present analysis. The error impacted only 1.6% of the earth's surface and the error was immeasurable globally (~0.003 degrees C).