Hi Brett,

Sorry to post these again, but they seem appropriate for this thread. Temperature patterns in the west have so far been very similar the past two winters. Widespread cold everywhere except Montana.

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/wrcc/30dTDeptWRCC.png
http://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/wrcc/DJF07TDeptWRCC.png

Last winter was "Hansen Super El Nino" and this winter is "Bastardi Historic La Nina."

We have also had near record snowfall both winters in much of Colorado. So what is the pattern? It seems to have little to do with ENSO. Reply: probably a number of factors Patrick, but i do not have time to go into an in depth study and discussion on it.

BTW - I noticed that the accuweather 15 day forecast has changed again. We are supposed to warm to normal for a few days, and then drop down to well below normal again for the remainder of the period.

Call me a proselyte. I'm leaning to the Al Gore side. This moderate La Nina and PDO cannot fully account for this energetic mid-latitude jet steam off the Pacific. Canada has been consistently cold but nothing extra-ordinary; probably due to a low solar flux in association with sunspot minima. Also there has been a prodominance of a cool stratosphere over the high latitudes - coincident with the low solar flux. I find this highly unusual and therefore I ascribe some of this to human activity.

Brett,

If it's suppose to be so dry here in the SE because of La Nina, why has it been raining pretty much non-stop for the last two weeks here in the Atlanta area?

The southeast ridge backed off just enough to allow fronts to get close enough, but with the strong ridge the fronts have stalled close by, with the storms moving up along the boundary. Late next week and beyond the southeast ridge will strengthen and move back west and northwest, probably leading to more dry, mild weather.

PS.....I like the new "lost Boy" name!

/sarc off

I can now clearly see the connection between increased CO2 concentrations and La Nina, now.

/OK, I lied, sarc off

Hi Guys,

Hmm just waiting for the AGW crowd to say that this is part of their model and was predicted after they saw the cooling trend and then updated(tweaked) the models to fit the current changes. Goes to show that CO2 is not driving climate and the AMO, PDO and comic ray flux have the greatest impact. Mans greatest impact is on local climate though land use. Their are some very interesting papers on aerosols too.

http://climatesci.colorado.edu/2007/12/20/an-important-new-paper-on-the-role-of-aerosols-within-the-climate-system-limits-on-climate-sensitivity-derived-from-recent-satellite-and-ourface-observation/
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/2007/12/26/follow-up-1-to-reality-check-4-most-societal-and-environmental-effects-are-influenced-by-regional-not-global-average-climate-variability-and-change/
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/2007/12/30/update-cause-versus-effect-in-feedback-diagnosis-by-roy-w-spencer-12302007/

probably due to a low solar flux in association with sunspot minima

Hi Thor,

My eyes deceive me. Did you write this or has someone stolen your identity?

This concept that the sun controls the earth's climate is truly revolutionary. The UN should allocate 50 billion dollars of US taxpayer's money to investigate.

Jim Arndt:
This is part of our model and was predicted after we saw the cooling trend and then updated(tweaked) the models to fit the current changes. Goes to show that CO2 is driving climate and the AMO, PDO and comic ray flux have the least amount of impact.
There you go, Jim. Didn't want you to have to wait to long!! For the AGW crowd - kevinag

Mr. Henry. I look at your post and see not widespread cold everywhere but Montana. It is also warm in Idaho, Eastern Washington, and down through the Willamette valley of Oregon. All along Columbia River, both sides in Oregon and Washington is warmer. Is warmer in central valley of California. Much of New Mexico is warmer. Is only very much colder in northeast Utah and in northeast Colorado, where it is that YOU live! Hmmmm! Well, we hope you warm up soon!

I generated a video from UIUC images showing the record rise in Arctic sea ice this fall. During the past eight weeks, Arctic ice has increased by nearly 7,000,000 km2 - an area 6,000 times the size of Rhode Island. i.e. the Arctic is freezing up an area the size of Rhode Island every 15 minutes for the last two months.

If you prefer a larger state, that area is equal to about 30X Texas, or a rate of one Texas every two days.

http://patrickphenry.blogspot.com/2007/12/arctic-sea-ice-recovery-november.html
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.jpg

You can also see the impressive amounts of snowfall covering the northern hemisphere.

The only thing left out of the La Nina update is the intense AMO, which has anchored a stubborn ridge of high pressure across much of the Atlantic and eastern seaboard. One must take into account the interaction of both an intense AMO and a near record La Nina in order to get a handle on our seasonal forecast anomalies. Synoptically, the best analogs can be found in the 1920s and the 2000-2001 years. I think this is what Joe B. did when he issued his 2007-2008 winter forecast. Thus far, it appears his forecast is turning out fairly good. One wrinkle could be either in a continued cooling of the Central Pacific -which in itself could signal a longterm change in the PDO.

It is now evident that most of the NH warming in recent years can be traced to abnormally warm SST anomalies in both the Northern Pacifc and North Atlantic. Overall, in most other oceanic areas, SSTs have either cooled or remained neutral since 2004. In the long run, a cooling in the Pacific is of more importance for our global climate than a warming in the North Atlantic.

Here in Mexico City the December, 07 stats are:
75% of the days are warmer than normal by +8-9 degrees farenheit. Its been averaging in the high 70s all month. The new cold front arriving new years eve has fizzled out this far south and the 5 day outlook has been revised upwards. Is it La Ni�a? Is it going to be like this all along our short 3 month cold season?
Anyone knows?
Thank you very much and seasons greetings!
Ricardo

Thanks, Brett,

I kind of like the "Lost Boy" moniker, myself.

/h/t to Mr. Bllom for the new moniker.

Hey Jim Arndt: Do you guys really have a comic ray flux? That would be so cool! How does it work? Can you wipe out the late night TV hosts with it? Oh no, wait, they did that with the writers strike. Well, I bet it is still cool!!

Brett:This may be of interest to you and your readers?
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/2007/12/30/update-cause-versus-effect-in-feedback-diagnosis-by-roy-w-spencer-12302007/
Happy New and cool(er) year to all

This is fascinating to watch, and seems to validate Dr. Gray's slant on thermohaline circulation.

Do you remember the theory which stated that polar melting was suppose to bring the Gulf Stream to a screeching halt? It hasn't happened yet.

Instead the ice-cold water seems to sink. Then it has to go somewhere, so a pulse heads south, under the Gulf Stream, under the Equator, and south until it runs into Antarctica. It then upswells. So we see very cold temps down there. Then the cold water joins the current that circles around and around Antactica, except the tip of South America sticks down and scoops some of it north, up as far as Peru, where it turns west and cools the tropics. So we see a cold La Nina.

Now, it seems to me that if you really, really wanted to prove warming was everywhere and in everything, you could say, "See? The melting in the arctic is what caused all this record cooling! So it is warming causing the cooling!"

In fact I expect to see this point made very soon by alarmists. I think the only reason the point hasn't been made by Dr. Hansen is because it validates Dr. Gray, who is such a skeptic.

It will be pretty amazing if the La Nina temps really do turn back down and that water gets any colder than it already is. I don't think people fathom how difficult it is to cool the equator. It robs a huge amount of energy from the world-wide equation.

One side effect of the La Nina is to lock the cold up in the arctic. I hope this happens, for I'm sick of shoveling snow in New Hampshire. (If the US winter is warm, the alarmists will all cheer.) But if the cold gets locked up in the arctic, next summer's melting will be less than last summer's. (The alarmists will get depressed.) As I understand it, this arctic cooling eventually results in the warm phase of the AMO turning to a cold phase. The pulses of cold water stop heading down towards Antarctica, and the La Nina eventually weakens.

However I have no idea how fast these pulses travel. The pulse of cold water freed by last summer's arctic melting may only be as far as the Equator, and it might not be reach the coast of Peru until 2009. Does anyone have any information about this?

I hope some people drop the politics long enough to just marvel and wonder over what is occuring.

It is now evident that most of the NH warming in recent years can be traced to abnormally warm SST anomalies in both the Northern Pacifc and North Atlantic.

It seems that, at least for now, JP agrees that there has been "NH warming in recent years."

That's some small progress, at least. Let's please remember that when we are, for example, arguing about the various data collection and curating processes.

Patrick, thanks for the links provided. I mean, the ice area is still well below average.
Ricardo, as for Mexico City, expect to see more in the way of mild weather; perhaps a couple of brief shots of cold air.
Well, given that most of the US is above-average, let's blame it all on La Nina. Global Warming? Nahh, that has nothing to do with it.
By the way, Patrick, it's 36.2 C in Buenos Aires. Below average, right?

'We seem to be almost entirely focused on one way to deal with the problems of the world," Bjorn Lomborg says. "No matter what the problem is, people will say we need to cut carbon emissions."

The Danish academic has spent the past decade trying to reduce our growing obsession with climate change, in the process becoming the most famous global warming sceptic in the world.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/environment/global-warming-gets-cold-shoulder/2007/12/28/1198778703740.html

2007 has been a very good year for learning about global warming. A few highlights.

* The climate models predict that Antarctica will quickly warm and melt, flooding all the coastal cities. The climate models also predict that Antarctica will continue to get colder. Record cold and ice in Antarctica proves global warming

* As can be seen from the Vostok ice cores, high CO2 levels trigger ice ages and low CO2 levels trigger massive warming to end ice ages.

* In the past, plants and animals were very adaptable. Crocodiles and other reptiles happily wandered around the north pole and life prospered through a huge range of temperatures and CO2 levels. In 2007, that has all changed. Miniscule changes in atmospheric chemistry will cause the entire ecosystem to collapse, and the only thing which can prevent this is to raise taxes.

* American made CO2 is very dangerous. Chinese CO2 is quite benign.

* All of the world's evils are due to George W Bush, Christians, and other Americans.

* Ice can quickly melt in Greenland at -15C

* I learned a new unit of volume measure - km2-days - used by NASA to measure ice loss when the regular volume numbers don't sound scary enough for a good press release.

* I learned that no matter how cold it is outside, it is always one of the ten warmest days on record.

* I learned that England's hottest year occurred during a year without a single hot day.

* I learned that a rapidly advancing glacial front is proof that the glacier is retreating.

* I learned that the weather never used to be bad prior to 1998.

* I learned that simply by naming more tropical disturbances than you used to, you can claim an active hurricane season.

* I learned that the key to solving all the world's problems ultimately comes down to Americans giving up their money and personal freedoms.

If you believe our deniers, much of the country is having the coldest December in memory. Actual data only proves their lunacy, however:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/montoday/mon2dayf.gif

Pittsburgh has been above normal this month. I wondered why Patrick hasn't picked any cherries in Minnesota recently and, lo and behold, now I see why. Minnesota's previous large negative anomalies have sharply decreased.

Oh well, it's cold on the Greenland Summit though -- surely, this disproves AGW. LOL.

A couple of questions. Patrick Henry stated that there is a "record rise in Arctic sea ice this fall." I looked at the video and the graph but couldn't see anything to compare it with from the past record. Emeliano says that it is still below normal. Which is it?
PS Patrick Henry, you might want to go back to your video page and insert the word ice after sea and before recovery. Right now it says there has been an arctic sea recovery this fall and I know that is not what you mean.

A couple of questions. Patrick Henry stated that there is a "record rise in Arctic sea ice this fall." I looked at the video and the graph but couldn't see anything to compare it with from the past record. Emeliano says that it is still below normal. Which is it?

I suspect it is still below normal, but the time series charts are incorrect according to the web site, so I really do not know for sure. The charts should be fixed soon.

PS Patrick Henry, you might want to go back to your video page and insert the word ice after sea and before recovery. Right now it says there has been an arctic sea recovery this fall and I know that is not what you mean.

A few more AGW gems -

* Northern Hemisphere one year sea ice anomalies are valid reason for mass panic. Southern hemisphere sea ice anomalies are statistically insignificant and must be ignored.

* Politicians flying over very cold, snowy places, should use the word "devastation" frequently.

* People who dispute AGW hysteria are borderline criminals or are completely ignorant.

* Scientists who support AGW hysteria are good. Scientists who question it are oil industry lackies. Of course there are "only about six scientists "in the world who question AGW according to the IPCC chair.

* Urban heat islands cause temperature readings in 42% of cities to be measured too low (Hansen 2001)

* The massive CO2 production of the last 200 years has caused US temperatures to be almost as high as they were 70 years ago.

* Solar activity variation is an inconsequential factor in climate.

* Significant climate change never occurred prior to 1900 (Mann)

* One half degree drop in temperature killed off the wimpy Vikings.

etc......

Boston Mass. and Concord NH just finished their snowiest month of december, the record goes back to 1873 or there about. Looks like we will have a january thaw next week, then back in the tank. I love global warming.