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Headline: Earth
Headline: Earth™:
Katie Fehlinger hosts Headline: Earth, which takes an unbiased look at all sides of the global warming debate. The weekly show features the latest headlines related to global warming, along with interviews of prominent and newsworthy guests, including global warming legislation advocate and chairman of the Environment and Public Works Committee (EPW), Senator (D) Barbara Boxer of California and global warming skeptic and former EPW chairman, Senator (R) James Inhofe of Oklahoma. Visit Headline: Earth's video page to see any or all of Katie's videos.


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December 5, 2007

Scientists Debate Global Warming-Disease Link

In a debate before an Institute of Medicine Panel on Global Health, top climate change scientists argued Tuesday whether or not there is concrete evidence linking global warming to the spread of infectious disease.

In the Boston Globe article written by John Donnelly, Mr. Donald S. Burke, dean of Pittsburgh's Graduate School of Public Health, noted that a 2001 study found that weather fluctuation and seasonal variability may influence the spread of infectious disease. But he believes that such conclusions should be interpreted with caution. "There are no apocalyptic pronouncements," Burke said. "There's an awful lot we don't know." Burke said he is not convinced that climate change can be proven to cause the spread of many diseases, specifically naming dengue fever, influenza, and West Nile virus.

On the other hand, you have Paul R. Epstein, associate director of the Center for Health and the Global Environment at Harvard Medical School, who said clusters of disease outbreaks spread by water, mosquitoes, and rats could clearly be traced to global warming. Epstein said those who "just look at specific diseases can miss the broader picture. If you look at ecological systems, water systems, the extreme weather, the range of wildlife . . . or more profoundly everything that supports a health system, then you can see the linkages. Scope is really important when you look at this."

An example of a documented link of disease to a chnaging weather pattern was exhibited by an earlier outbreak of chikungunya fever along Kenya's coast. Weather patterns caused by La Nina led to drought in east Africa during 2004. Because there was a shortage of fresh water, people rarely emptied buckets around their homes, giving mosquitoes an ideal breeding ground of standing water.

"An outbreak like that is from a convergence of factors, and climate is one of them," said Jean-Paul Chretien, who is the Defense Department's coordinator of overseas laboratories.


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Comments (58)

Patrick Henry:

During the Little Ice Age, there were rats driven to the surface in London which caused a black plague that killed thousands of people a week. It should be fairly obvious that infectious disease is currently at an all-time low rate since the dawn of civilization, and that the ability to stay warm is key to good public health.

But an excellent way to massively increase disease is to create an economic depression by passing careless CO2 legislation, as Hillary and Obama propose.

BTW- I wonder how many weeks of cold weather in New Yorkansas before their semi-native senator declares that she never supported the idea of global warming?

Paul:

An example of a documented link of disease to a changing weather pattern was exhibited by an earlier outbreak of chikungunya fever along Kenya's coast. Weather patterns caused by La Nina led to drought in east Africa during 2004. Because there was a shortage of fresh water, people rarely emptied buckets around their homes, giving mosquitoes an ideal breeding ground of standing water.

"An outbreak like that is from a convergence of factors, and climate is one of them," said Jean-Paul Chretien, who is the Defense Department's coordinator of overseas laboratories.

Whoa, there. I thought weather and climate were different. Now here we have this guy (or is it you, Brett?) equating weather and climate. So, which is it? Weather or climate? (Mr. Bllom, time for you to interject with one of your enlightening musings.)

Marie:

"as it warms, these insects (mosquitoes) are moving higher and they bring malaria and other diseases with them."

The largest concentrations of mosquitoes are in the Arctic. So thick that they make black clouds at times, and mosquito netting is needed to breathe. Mosquitoes thrive in cold climates.

I've heard that the state bird of Wisconsin is the mosquito, and temperatures are -10 degrees there now. I've been in massive swarms of mosquitoes at 3500 meters elevation in the mountains, next to snow banks. Anywhere there is standing fresh water.

Temperature has nothing to do with it, and the scientist making these claims should spend five minutes doing research before opening his mouth and embarrassing himself.

JP:

"Weather patterns caused by La Nina led to drought in east Africa during 2004. Because there was a shortage of fresh water, people rarely emptied buckets around their homes, giving mosquitoes an ideal breeding ground of standing water."

La Nina is associated with cooling equatorial waters in the Pacific Ocean. Intense, longlasting, and frequent La Nina episodes are associated with a cooling climate -that is during extensive negative PDO cycles. East African droughts are normally associated with intense El Nino episodes -that is the drought in 2004 East Africa was most probabaly not linked to a Pacific teleconnection. It would be nice if these guys would at least attempt to get the science right.

For the record, the worst drought to hit North America since 800AD occured during the coldest decades of the LIA (1660-1710) -this drought occured primairily in the Southeast US (from Alabhama to the Tidewater States and Virginia). The greatest outbreak of parasitical related plague occured again during the LIA (the bubonic plague). The Mongols, forced by increasing colder East Asian climate migrated West -carrying the plague with them. By the 16th century, a cold unstable climate finally anchored itself across Europe and North Africa.

Oleg Voronov:

Most of Australia has gotten wetter over the last 100 years.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/reg/cli_chg/trendmaps.cgi

Jim Arndt:

Hi Guys,

Heres a list of disasters for you. WOW right out of Al Gore's movie. Too bad it was 100 years or so ago. I think the worst malaria outbreak was in Russia in the Northern Latitudes ----Yes about 80 years ago. OOOHHHH

http://sharpgary.org/1896-1929.html

Patrick Henry:

Oleg - thanks for the Australia link.

2-15 inches of rain during November in much of Australia.
ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/ncc/www/rainfall/totals/month/colour/latest.hres.gif

Sydney, Dec 5, 2007 (ABN Newswire) -
moderate to heavy thunderstorms and fronts in the past month to six weeks has relieved the pressure of the big dry.
http://www.abnnewswire.net/press/en/45711/Australasian-Investment-Review.html

Gary:

Marie:

Good Point! The masses simply would accept these stories without question. And without knowing the facts you pointed out.

2007 will go down as the year of maximum hysteria minumum truth. They are throwing out anything and everthing in a last desperate attempt to get Kyoto 2 passed.
If it does not go through now, they will not get another chance as the 24th sun spot cycle begins cooling us down.
It now or never for the warmists.
Let the games begin.

BTW: What do you think of Baird from Canada?
I think he is playing the game well, buying time to let the science mature before we commit the whole budget on usless nonscence.

RICH:

To all, H20, not C02 controls our temperature.

The temperature of our bioshere has increased by .6 degrees over the past 150 years. We are coming out of the ice age. Clearly the earth has been warming for quiet sometime, even after the little ice age, and even after the 1970s. Ice is obviously frozen water.

What caused our biosphere to warm up and come out of the ice age?

Simple. ABSORPTION. The frequency of energy from sun light(color spectrum) the earth is absorbing due to its PERFECT and CONSTANT DISTANCE to the sun.

Mercury, the planet CLOSEST to the sun is burning hot, yet on the dark side its freezing COLD. What happened to the heat from the absorbed light? Shouldnt the whole planet stay warm because its surface is spining and constantly absorbing the sun light. NO! Its cold on the dark side because it critically lacks something. And its NOT a heat trapping gas. Its a LIQUID...WATER!

Liquid is our constant thermal energy source. We stay warm even without sunlight on the dark side of earth. Why? This thermal(sun) energy is NOW constant because it is FLUID, circulating and encompassing our planet. What seperates our planet from any other? WATER, oceans... the Abyss. The conveyor belts (thermodynamics) of our oceans prevent the earth from freezing up on the dark side and burning up on the light side.

The reason we are maintaining life sustaining TEMPERATURES on both the light and dark side of earth is because of a FLUID THERMAL ENERGY SOURCE, H20, not CO2. Life (Bio) stems from water. Our current BIOsphere exists because of the thermodynamic properties of climate controlling water, our air conditioner.

I will be away from my computer for a few days and will explain (if you need it) when I get back.

MJW:

Just in case the name of his organization, the "Center for Health and the Global Environment at Harvard Medical School," didn't give it away, Dr. Paul R. Epstein is hardly some random disease expert commenting on the possible effects of climate on health. He's pretty much the go-to guy when it comes to AGW health concerns (some might say alarmism). He's served as an editor of climate change papers for the Union of Concerned Scientists and is a member of the Physicians for Social Responsibility -- both advocacy groups with strong stands on AGW. Dr. Epstein doesn't confine himself to blaming global warming for causing illness, he also blames if for lots of other ills. For example, in January 2004 he wrote, "It seemed incongruous when former Vice President Al Gore gave a speech on global warming on a bitterly cold day in New York City this month. But in fact it was an appropriate topic: New Yorkers may be able to blame the city's current cold spell -- the most severe in nearly a decade -- on global warming."

Mark:

"Mosquitoes thrive in cold climates."

Marie, we have four inches of snow outside and I don't see any mosquitoes. In fact, I've never seen a mosquito on a cold winter's day. However, sometimes on the first warm day we get in late winter, you'll see a mosquito or two emerge. So much for your theory.

Now, Marie says:

I've been in massive swarms of mosquitoes at 3500 meters elevation in the mountains

Apparently, she doesn't read the article she's quoting from:

as it warms, these insects (mosquitoes) are moving higher and they bring malaria and other diseases with them.

Perhaps it is Marie who should do five minutes of research to avoid embarrassing herself.

Patrick Henry:

Mark,

The inability to think logically is what makes people susceptible to global warming predators.

The presence of mosquitoes has nothing to do with a warm climate. They breed in standing water, which are common in glacial terrains - such as high mountains and the arctic. During the few weeks a year where the arctic and high elevations don't freeze at night, the mosquitoes breed prolifically. This has been going on for as long as man has visited the Arctic.

I'd have to say that your last post was one of the most poorly thought out ones I've seen and you owe Marie an apology. She is 100% correct.

Chance Metz:

not too cold though . i would say about 50 degrees and damp is just right for those little bloodsuckers.

Marie:

Dear Mark,

Are you suggesting that mosquitoes in the Arctic and the mountains are also due to global warming? You poor confused child. Mosquitoes like glaciated areas because they tend to have a lot of standing water. If you think the Arctic is warm, you should go up there for a couple of weeks and let us know how it goes. I hear it is lovely in Nunavut this time of year, though perhaps not quite as warm as Nairobi.

Rick Ressler:

I ran across this article in the New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/05/health/research/05flu.html?_r=1&oref=slogin (be patient, it loads slowly) describing a study of influenza that shows a link between cooler temps and the spread of the disease. Many elderly and infirmed die each winter from the flu so, in this instance, global warming is a boon to the health of mankind.

Scientists and researchers need to remain objective when investigating climate's role in health issues. Unfortunately, many have lost their objectivity in the rush to blame virtually everything bad on AGW. The authors do issue disclaimer after disclaimer about their findings, which is to their credit. I got the impression that they were apologizing for blaming yet another malady on global warming. I think they felt they were "piling on" without conclusive proof.

Chance Metz:

Why yes since they get a bad rap they have to protect themselves. honestly sometimes they do say global warming is causing more illness,which is a mistake they make often that they then correct the next day.

Tom:

Paul R. Epstein, associate director of the Center for Health and the Global Environment at Harvard Medical School, who said clusters of disease outbreaks spread by water, mosquitoes, and rats could clearly be traced to global warming.
________________________________________________

The name of this center arouses suspicion - I would hope Harvard Medical School is sufficiently concerned about its reputation to associate only with responsible scientists...as for Dr. Epstein's claim: don't say it, demonstrate it, if it is so clear. This would certainly be a major scientific finding if he could do so. Reminds me of the CDC official who testified recently before Congress on the same topic and had little to offer beyond speculative conjecture.

Oleg Voronov:

Mark, you said - "we have four inches of snow outside and I don't see any mosquitoes"

You seem to be "confusing weather and climate."

Mark:

Hello Marie,

Your claim was that mosquitoes thrive in cold climates. Uhm, no, they don't, Marie. I ask that you show me links that show me how they relish frigid weather. The fact is that mosquitoes thrive in mild, moist environments.

Also, not all mosquitoes are created equal, Marie. There are many different types of mosquitoes. The ones which cause most of the diseases thrive in warm climates.

Your claim that you've seen mosquitoes above 3500 meters actually supports what the article is saying -- that mosquitoes are moving higher. I was merely pointing that out. You need to re-read what I wrote.

Chance Metz:

Mosqitoes and any other insect can't fly below 50 degrees and since they can't flew al they can do is crwal along like a slug.

Marie:

Dear Mark,

Mosquitoes most certainly do thrive in cold climates.
Reply: I think he meant cold temperatures, 50 or below.

Where on Earth does one find the heaviest concentration of mosquitoes? A tropical jungle? A hot festering swamp? Wrong. Experts say it's the Arctic tundra - mosquitoes can appear in swarms so thick they can turn the sky gray.

http://www.athropolis.com/arctic-facts/fact-mosquito.htm

Marie:

Dear Mark,

Sorry I missed your other point. As the link from my last post explained, mosquitoes love glaciated, tundra areas because of the standing water. High mountain summers have always been infested with mosquitoes. This is not something new, and has nothing to do with any real or imagined climate trends.

Male mosquitoes feed on nectar and water, but the females seek the blood of warm-blooded creatures (people, birds, caribou, polar bears - they're not fussy). When they bite, they inject their saliva into the wound - causing the swelling and irritation that most people are familiar with.

And in the Arctic, these little flying predators can appear explosively - billions of them in a single day - bringing misery to all around them.

http://www.athropolis.com/arctic-facts/fact-mosquito.htm


john davis:

Really global warming is a bunch of silly liberal nonsence in fact a couple hundred years ago greenland was actually green.The medevil warming period was super hot but we didnt cause it.The sam wacko who came up with global warming came up with global cooling before that and wanted to put black tar on the ice sheets to melt them.And the tempreture hasn't risen that much its only rose about 1 degree in 100 years.I think its the boy who cried wolf.And it would be good if global warming was real because we could use Siberia thousands of square miles for farming.It would sjy rocket the economy

Patrick Henry:

One of my favorite geology topics from college was the Tunguska (Siberia) explosion in 1908. Probably due to a comet hitting the atmosphere, it was the equivalent of a 15 Megaton nuclear blast.

I remember watching a film of successive teams trying to locate meteorite fragments in the Siberian swamps, and the mosquitoes were so thick that they had to wear mosquito netting from head to toe, 24 hours a day.

Most people I know think of Siberia as being a cold climate.

http://omzg.sscc.ru/TUNGUSKA/en/newse/Gabi.htm

Three days of being mosquito bait was also more than some could bear

Canada might be considered a cold climate too.

"It's no joke. Those mosquitoes were so big they could carry off small children!!!" Almost every resident of Winnipeg, Manitoba makes a claim similar to that. ... The mosquito is jokingly considered Manitoba's provincial bird!!!"

http://www.mysteriesofcanada.com/Manitoba/mosquito_capital_of_canada.htm

MJW:

Mark: Your claim was that mosquitoes thrive in cold climates. Uhm, no, they don't, Marie. I ask that you show me links that show me how they relish frigid weather.

I don't think they have to relish cold climates to thrive in cold climates. Thrive means to do well -- to flourish; relish means to take take great pleasure in. Now, I can't really get into the mosquitoes' heads to see how much they relish the Alaska clime, but I can say there are plenty of them up there, so they seem to be thriving.

You asked for a link, so here's one. It's pretty much everything you could ever want to know about "The Mosquitoes of Alaska." Best of all, it was issued by the USDA in 1961, so it's untainted by the AGW controversy.

The opening paragraph states that the first reconnaissance by the U.S. Army Engineer Corp in 1869 encountered abundant mosquitoes, which "proved a very serious annoyance."