Before I get to the post, I want to wish everyone a Happy New Year. I took over this blog back in January of 2007 and have truly enjoyed the experience. I have personally learned a great deal about climate change by researching many stories and studies, watching Katie's videos and the of course by reading your comments. I look forward to another year! Thank you!

Now on to some bad news........

I do not watch 60 minutes that much anymore, there is just too much other good stuff that is on Sunday evening. My parents used to watch it all the time, and with one TV that is what I watched as well. Anyway, the show just happened to still be on when I came into the living room and a story about western wildfires was just starting, so I stayed and watched.
The story focused on the recent increase in mega-fires across the forests of the western United States. Typical fires during the burn season are a common part of nature and are necessary in many cases. Forests and wildlife usually recover fairly quickly from these fires as most of the undergrowth is burned away while the large, older trees are able to survive. Unfortunately, fire ecologists have seen a marked increase in mega-fires across the West recently and are blaming global warming, since the warming has allowed logs, branches and tree needles to dry out faster and for a longer period of time. These mega-fires are huge and can "kill" a forest. The larger flames and higher heat from these fires can kill the large, old-growth trees and lead to sterile soil conditions, which prevent new growth after the fire.

"The fire season in the last 15 years or so has increased more than two months over the whole western U.S., said Tom Swetnam, fire ecologist at the University of Arizona. "So actually 78 days on average longer fire season in the last 15 years compared to the previous 15-20 years."

The strongest impact on me from the 60 Minutes story was the interview with Tom Boatner, the federal governments chief of fire operations, who has worked the fire lines for 30 years and has seen the change first hand. "We're seeing century-old forests that had never sustained these kinds of fires before, being razed to the ground," said Boatner.

The increase in mega-fires might not be all due to the warming. Forest fire management policy over the past 100 years has been to stop even small to moderate-size fires as fast as possible, which has resulted in a very large amount of forest undergrowth. The availability of this dry, undergrowth has added a lot more potential fuel than normal to these fires, increasing the chances of mega-fires.

Swetnam says that there is a reasonable chance that more than half of the region's forests could be claimed by fire within some decades to a century as we continue to get large-scale fires.

I know many of our readers are already aware that 2007 was on pace to become the 5th warmest on record globally, while in the contiguous U.S., 2007 was going to make the top-ten list, according to NOAA. This preliminary data will be updated later this month as the rest of the December data is incorporated into the set. The official results for 2007 will not be finalized until spring.

Here is a more detailed look at the early NOAA estimates as listed by the ScienceDaily article.......

1. Globally

--The combined land/ocean surface annual temperature is expected to be near 58 F, which would make 2007 the 5th warmest since records began in 1880.

--Assuming the above is correct, this will make 7 of the 8 warmest years on record to have occurred since 2001 and the ten warmest will have all occurred since 1997.

--The rate of warming since 1976 has been about 3 times faster than the century-scale trend.

--The largest warm anomalies were from eastern Europe to central Asia.

--The greatest warming during 2007 was in the northern latitudes of the northern hemisphere.

--2007 continued the trend of end-of-summer Arctic sea ice extent reductions of about 10% per decade since 1979. Actually, 2007 set a new record.

2. Contiguous U.S.

--The annual average temperature will be near 54.3 F or 1.5 degrees above the 20th century average, making 2007 the 8th warmest on record.

--U.S. residential energy demand was 3% less in the winter which is good news, but it was 8% higher than average in the summer.

I thought some of our readers may get a kick out of these local reports from Florida this morning, especially since several of our regular commentators are getting in the constant habit of posting localized daily weather observations, which really mean very little, if anything, when you are looking at overall global climate trends, and I know most of you are fully aware of that already.

The reports are courtesy of the National Weather Service.......

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1009 AM EST THU JAN 03 2008

..TIME...........EVENT...........CITY LOCATION...........LAT.LON...
..DATE............MAG............COUNTY LOCATION..ST........SOURCE......REMARKS..

0730 AM.......SNOW...........DAYTONA BEACH.............29.21N 81.03W
01/03/2008 E0.0 INCH.......VOLUSIA............FL......BROADCAST MEDIA

SNOW FLURRIES REPORTED FROM PORT ORANGE NORTH TO DAYTONA
BEACH AND ORMOND BEACH. SEVERAL REPORTS RECEIVED OF
FLURRIES STARTING APPROXIMATELY 730 AM IN ORMOND BEACH
AND STILL BEING OCCURRING AS OF 0905 AM IN PORT ORANGE.
REPORTS RECEIVED FROM OBSERVER...SPOTTERS AND VIA NEWS
CHANNEL 13.

0900 AM.......SNOW............2 NNW SCOTTSMOOR........28.79N 80.89W
01/03/2008....E0.0 INCH..........VOLUSIA ...........FL.....CO-OP OBSERVER

SNOW FLURRIES REPORTED AT APPROXIMATELY 9 AM IN NORTHERN
BREVARD COUNTY NEAR THE TOWN OF SCOTTSMOOR.

0930 AM......SNOW............SHARPES.................28.43N 80.77W
01/03/2008 E0.0 INCH.........BREVARD.............FL.....PUBLIC

SNOW FLURRIES REPORTED NORTH OF COCOA IN SHARPES AT
APPROXIMATELY 930 AM.

Low temps this morning around central Florida...

Daytona Beach 32
Leesburg 30
Orlando 31
Vero Beach 33
Apopka 27
Avalon 29
Ft. Pierce 33
Fort Myers 32

I suspect the citrus crop came out OK, but probably not for some vegetables.

The last time I was down in Florida (DisneyWorld), which was Nov of 2006, there were reports of flurries just north of Orlando. That was the same day when we went to Sea World and practically froze. I thought Sea World was over hyped.

By the way, I am going skiing with my 11 year old daughter after work later this afternoon. I figure the conditions will be about as good as they can get here in central PA before the big warm up begins this weekend and into next week.

Forecasters from the UK's Met Office and experts from the University of East Anglia predict that 2008 will be another top-ten warmest year globally since records began in 1850, but it will be cooler than recent years.

These cyclical influences can mask underlying warming trends with Prof. Phil Jones, Director of the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, saying: "The fact that 2008 is forecast to be cooler than any of the last seven years (and that 2007 did not break the record warmth set on 1998) does not mean that global warming has gone away. What matters is the underlying rate of warming - the period 2001-2007 with an average of 0.44 °C above the 1961-90 average was 0.21 °C warmer than corresponding values for the period 1991-2000."

Here are some of the details from their 2008 forecast..............

-- Global average temperatures for 2008 would be 0.37 celsius (0.66 F) above the 30-year average of 14 celsius (57.2 F) from 1961-1990.

--2008 will be the coolest year globally since 2000.

--The forecast took into account the strengthening La Nina, which, according to the forecasters would limit the warming trend. Rising atmospheric greenhouse gases, solar variations and changes in ocean currents were also considered when making the forecast.

By the way, the Met Office forecast for 2007 from last January predicted that 2007 would be the warmest year on record. It was not. Here is the link to their forecast for 2007.

The appearance of sunspot # 10,981 late Thursday in the sun's northern hemisphere is a harbinger of new Solar Cycle 24, according to NOAA scientists.

The small bright patch in the upper half, just left of center is the spot.

According to solar physicist Douglas Biesecker of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center, the sunspot is an early omen of solar storms that will gradually increase over the next few years.

Last April, experts predicted Solar Cycle 24 would start in March 2008 (+/- 6 months), and they were evenly split between those predicting a strong or weak cycle. All agreed that the sooner the new cycle takes over the waning cycle (becomes dominant), the more likely it would be a strong season with many sunspots and major storms. Some studies have shown a correlation between oscillations in solar activity with oscillations in global mean temperature on earth. The greater the solar activity and luminosity, the warmer our climate is.

The new sunspot, according to the NOAA press release, is the latest visible spot to appear since NOAA began numbering them on January 5, 1972. Its high-latitude location at 27 degrees North, and its negative polarity leading to the right in the Northern Hemisphere are clear-cut signs of a new solar cycle, according to NOAA experts. The first active regions and sunspots of a new solar cycle can emerge at high latitudes while those from the previous cycle continue to form closer to the equator.

Solar Cycle 24 is not dominant yet, as many more spots with Cycle 24 traits must appear.

Here is an image of the sun from today (below), showing the tiny sunspot in the northern hemisphere of the sun (labeled as #981). Image courtesy of NASA.

Dr. Oleg Sorokhtin, a Merited Scientist of Russia and fellow of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences says that Earth is now at the peak of one of its passing warm spells, which according to him, is a natural process and utterly independent of hothouse gases. According to Sorokhtin's article from the Russian News and Information Agency, data obtained from Habibullah Abdusamatov, who is the head of the Pulkovo Observatory space research laboratory, shows that a fairly cold spell will set in quite soon, by 2012, but real cold will come when solar activity reaches its minimum, by 2041, and will last for 50-60 years or longer.

Sorokhtin also notes.....

Carbon dioxide is not to blame for global climate change. Solar activity is many times more powerful than the energy produced by the whole of humankind. Man’s influence on nature is a drop in the ocean.

Earth is unlikely to ever face a temperature disaster.

The principal is Earth’s reflective power, which regulates its temperature. A warm period, as the present, increases oceanic evaporation to produce a great amount of clouds, which filter solar radiation and so bring heat down. Things take the contrary turn in a cold period.

You can read the full article here.

I tried to find out more specific information about Dr. Sorokhtin and Abdusamatov, but all I found was similar links to this particular story, and let me say, there were a large number of links to this story on the web.

Researchers from the Oregon State University (OSU) Hatfield Marine Science Center have journeyed to the Antarctic region over the past 3 years to deploy hydrophones into the deep waters surrounding the western Antarctic Peninsula.The hydrophones are highly sensitive microphones encased in titanium and lowered on three-quarters of a mile of cable to listen to the rumble of undersea earthquakes.

Quotes taken from the Oregonian article......

"When an earthquake occurs, it makes a distinct sound, and we can locate that," says Robert Dziak, 44, OSU associate professor of marine geophysics and expedition leader. "Earthquakes and magma spewing on the seafloor go hand in hand, and what we are seeing is, there are new heat sources right off the coast of Deception Island that no one was aware of before.

"It's the only place on the planet where active seafloor and subaerial (above sea level) volcanoes are near large icebergs and ice sheets."

Dziak is hoping to learn more about how the sea floor volcanoes and earthquakes contribute to the breakup of ice in the region. The most significant find from the research so far has been the discovery of thermal vents on the seafloor.

An underwater thermal vent.

"Since three-quarters of the Earth is covered by ocean, the vast majority of volcanic activity on Earth is occurring without our knowledge undersea." So it's unknown how much heat and chemicals the underwater volcanoes spew into the ocean and atmosphere, affecting global ocean temperatures and climate, said Dziak.

According to Haru Matsumoto, research associate at OSU, scientists know that the air temperature around the Western Antarctic Peninsula has warmed by 4 degrees Fahrenheit during the past 40 years and that noise levels in the waters nearby have increased about 10 decibels in the past 30 years.

The article states that Matsumoto's sound research has shown that the waters off Antarctica are quieter in the winter, when ice seals the water from external sounds, and noisier in the summer. He says the louder noise levels of the past four decades may be the result of global warming, and that ultimately could impact marine life.

A field of soybeans

Scientists from the University of California at Irvine believe that they have come up with an idea to slow global warming. The research team says that growing shinier crops could reduce maximum daytime temperatures by as much as 1.9 celsius (3.4 F) in agricultural regions.

Growing more reflective plants will increase the amount of sunlight reflected back from land. which could offset the damaging effects of the loss of Arctic sea ice, according to the article from the Guardian Unlimited.

The California team, led by Chris Doughty in the department of earth system science, told the American Geophysical Union Conference: "Slowing or reversal of regional warming trends may be achieved by manipulation of land surface albedo. This approach is most feasible in agricultural and forestry areas, where the land surface is already under significant human influence."

One example of this idea is the creation of the extra-hairy variety of soy bean to fight pests. This particular variety reflects about 5% more sunlight than normal.

More details about this research will be published in an academic journal later this year.

The story also notes that other scientists have proposed similar ideas (higher reflectivity) to cool the planet, such as growing broadleaf varieties of trees instead of conifers and painting roads, roofs and car parks white. I don't know about that idea of replacing conifers, supposedly conifers absorb a high amount of CO2, and those white roads would get awfully dirty looking pretty quickly! I guess that would keep the road sweeping crews very busy throughout the year.

Lester Brown, one of the U.S.'s most respected environmentalists and the president of the Earth Policy Institute, a Washington-based environmental think tank believes that civilization is in trouble due to our overpopulated and overconsuming world. He blames an economic system that rewards production without regard for environmental impact.

In the Time.com article, Brown lays out an alternate path that could save us from the worst consequences of climate change, and he calls it Plan B. Here is a sampling of Brown's Plan B..........

1. Winding down our dependence on coal and eventually phase it out.
2. Reduce global carbon dioxide emissions 80% by 2020.
3. Improve energy efficiency.
4. Develop renewable sources of power.
5. Expand the Earth's forest cover.
6. Build new wind turbines with the same urgency that the U.S. produced
tanks and bombers during World War II and we could generate 3 million
megawatts of wind power by 2020, enough to meet 40% of the world's
energy needs.
7. Utilize more geothermal energy, which according to Brown is 50,000 times
more powerful than all of our oil or natural gas.
8. Phase in a worldwide carbon tax at $20 per ton each year between
2008-2020, topping out at $240 per ton.

How much would all of this cost? Brown estimates that the coast of his Plan B
would cost the world an additional $190 billion per year. He compares this to
the global military budget, which is more than $1.2 trillion.

Brown feels that all we have to do is find the political and popular will to
implement the plan, but that will be a tough sell, as the real battle over climate change is now political, not technological, and it's one that too many environmentalists tend to discount, according to the article.

There is also a podcast about Brown and his new book on the Time.com link.

This in the final part of Katie's one-on-one interview with lead NASA scientist Dr. James Hansen. Dr. Hansen talks about the weather and climate. There is also an interesting link between Dr. Hansen and Seinfeld.

Katie also discusses the latest news on the the protection of the polar bear and the bicycle explosion in Australia.

John Tierney, a columnist for the Science Times section of the New York Times posted an article which compares recent actual global temperature trends, using different methods, with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) prediction for the 2000-2007 period. Seven years is not very much when you are looking at climate, but it is interesting when when you compare everything on a graph, which is displayed in Tierney's column.

In his column, Tierney raised a question originally posed by Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr. (professor of environmental studies at the University of Colorado)......Are there any indicators in the next 1,5, 10 years that would be inconsistent with the consensus view on climate change?

A climate scientist suggested comparing what has happened since 2000 with the predictions made by the IPCC. There are many different versions of what has happened with the global temperatures over the past 7 years, as many of our readers are well aware of. There are different groups doing the measuring and some of the measurements are based on satellite data, while others are based on surface data.

Thanks to Pielke, you can compare the IPCC forecast with the actual temperature records of the four different measurements. You can see that the GISS temperature (courtesy of NASA and Dr. James Hansen) is the only one that is still recently within the IPCC range of uncertainty forecast, while the other three have fallen below the IPCC range . Over the past two years, the Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) data has trended the farthest away (cooler) from the IPCC forecast.

Pielke Jr. goes further with a recent post on his Prometheus site, and he shows you the same graph going back to 1990.

Tierney makes a good point here........If scientists can't even agree on what has happened in the past, imagine how much more difficult it is to figure out the future.