Atlantic Ocean Warming and Hurricane Frequency
Hurricane Katrina, courtesy NOAA
I must say, the hurricane studies are coming out fast and furious now, remember the recent NOAA study I blogged about on landfalling Atlantic hurricanes in the U.S.. Now, we have new research from University College London and published in the Journal Nature which shows that just a 0.5 degree celsius (0.9 F) rise in the Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature can fuel a 40% increase in Atlantic basin hurricane activity compared to the 50-year average (1950-2000). The study shows that the warming is directly linked to frequency, strength and duration of hurricanes. The interaction of greenhouse gases on ocean water temperatures was not considered in this study, according to the Guardian Unlimited article.
Adam Lea and Mark Sanders, the scientists who co-led the study built a statistical model (yes, we are back to models again) based on local sea-surface temperature and wind to replicate hurricane activity over the past 40 years. This statistical model then allowed the researchers to remove the effects of wind to determine the sole impact of sea-surface warming on Atlantic basin hurricanes.
By the way, I will be attending the Focus The Nation National Teach-In today at Penn State. I felt it would be something that I should check out. This is the largest teach-in event in U.S. history and is taking place at over 1400 venues. I will be taking notes from the Penn State teach-in and will hopefully get enough stuff for a few interesting blogs over the next week or so.
