I had mentioned in my Thursday blog that I would be attending one of the 1400+ "Focus The Nation" teach-ins on climate change that were held across the country that day. The one I attended was held at Penn State University. There were several experts who spoke about climate change throughout the day and it was quite interesting. At least three of the speakers on the Penn State panel had a role in the writing of a particular chapter of the IPCC report. One of those authors stated that he was initially a strong skeptic, but after 15 years of researching climate change he is no longer a skeptic.

One of the speakers at the event was Dr. Brent Yarnal, a professor of Geography at Penn State and the director of the Center for Integrated Regional Assessment (CIRA). Dr. Yarnal helped author the Middle Atlantic Regional Assessment (MARA) of Impacts from Climate Change. Granted, this is just one region in the U.S. and one small piece of the planet, but I thought some of the assessment was interesting. The assessment includes the region from central New York state to northeastern North Carolina.

The assessment considers two climate change scenarios, one from the Hadley Centre in the UK and the other from the Canadian Climate Center (CCC). Based on these two scenarios the authors of the MARA team came up with the following for the impact of climate change on the Middle Atlantic region........

--A much more variable climate (More extreme storms, floods, but also more drought)

--Agriculture across the region would be able to adapt, but uncertainties about weeds, pests and disease could alter that assessment

Forests
--Forests across the region would continue to migrate. Much of the maple/birch region being replaced by oak and hickory. Maple syrup industry more confined to Canada and out of northern New England and New York state.

Water
--Seasonal stream flow shift.
--Uncertain amount of water.
--Increase in intense rainfall.
--Decrease in water quality.

Coastal Zones
--Sea level rise (they have an impact map showing this in the assessment I linked to)
--Storm surges enhanced.
--Estuaries at risk

Ecosystems
--Functions impaired.
--Biodiversity diminished.

Human health
--Heat mortality increase.
--Water-borne disease increase (ex. cholera)
--Vector-borne disease increase (tiger mosquitoes are already getiing into the D.C. area and are known to feed during the day, not just the night.

Socioeconomic System
--Regional economy resilient to climate change.
--Some populations hurt, others are helped.

Positive impacts on...
--Soybeans, corn, tree fruit, more mixed forest growth, warmer water fisheries and
an increase in average stream flow.