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Katie Fehlinger hosts Headline: Earth, which takes an unbiased look at all sides of the global warming debate. The weekly show features the latest headlines related to global warming, along with interviews of prominent and newsworthy guests, including global warming legislation advocate and chairman of the Environment and Public Works Committee (EPW), Senator (D) Barbara Boxer of California and global warming skeptic and former EPW chairman, Senator (R) James Inhofe of Oklahoma. Visit Headline: Earth's video page to see any or all of Katie's videos.


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February 27, 2008

Instability of the West Antarctica Ice Sheet

The Pine Island Glacier.

Scientists from the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) say they have found strong evidence of instabilities in the ice of West Antarctica. A group of glaciers covering an area the size of Texas have recently surged sharply in speed towards the ocean, according to the BBC News article.

Satellite measurements show that three large glaciers have been speeding up for more than a decade. Specifically, the Pine Island Glacier is putting more ice into the sea than any other glacier in Antarctica. The 30 km wide and couple of kilometers thick ice sheet is now moving at a rate of 3.5 kilometers per year. The scientists are now trying to figure out how the glacier moved in the long-term past.

The Pine Island Glacier is located in the top half of the area outlined in red on the map below, courtesy of the University of Hull.

Julian Scott of the BAS said that the Pine Island Glacier was accelerating 1% per year during the 1990's, but last season that figure was up to 7%. What could be the reasons for this? The scientists think a lack of sea ice in that particular region is allowing a warmer, deep ocean current to undercut the glacier and lubricate its flow toward the sea. There is also evidence of a volcano that erupted through the ice about 2,000 years ago and the whole region could be volcanically active, releasing geothermal heat to melt the base of the ice and help its slide towards the sea, according to Scott. However, they do not feel that this is a result of the warming of the surrounding air.

Icebergs calving on the edge of the Brunt Ice Shelf.

David Vaughn of the BAS thinks a major collapse of this section of the West Antarctica ice sheet should be taken seriously. If the Pine Island Glacier continues to surge and discharge most of the ice into the sea it could raise the global sea level by 25 cm (10 inches) in decades or a century.

Here is a link to several Antarctica webcams that are updated at least hourly, courtesy of the BAS.

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Comments (65)

Patrick Henry:

If a volcano erupted through the ice 2000 years ago and didn't cause the sheet to collapse, it is unlikely to happen now. Generally the land under thick ice sheets is depressed into a bowl shape (due to the weight of the ice), which makes a collapse impossible. Could be another publicity hound riding on the virtual coattails of AGW.

At any rate, we need to raise taxes in order to stop that geothermal energy from undercutting our beloved ice sheet. Either that or sacrifice a few virgins.

Steve Rowland:

***The scientists think a lack of sea ice in that particular region is allowing a warmer, deep ocean current to undercut the glacier and lubricate its flow toward the sea. There is also evidence of a volcano that erupted through the ice about 2,000 years ago and the whole region could be volcanically active, releasing geothermal heat to melt the base of the ice and help its slide towards the sea, according to Scott. However, they do not feel that this is a result of the warming of the surrounding air.****

There ....you said it....doesn't the fact that the sheet is calving infer that there will be much more ice in the sea of that particular region, creating a cooler deep ocean current thus reversing the trend?

If it takes 2000 years for the results of a volcanic eruption to become apparent, what do we infer from the miniscule mean temperature variations up or down as applied to GW? Its like a butterfly flaps its wings in China and creates a tornado in Oklahoma.

GSN:

Science, eh? We'll see what Glen Beck has to say about this!

Vincent:

Again for posterity save this graph
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.jpg
with correction, NH ice is very rapidly on way to going anomalous high re mid February "adjustments"

"We are experiencing some data problems with the current timeseries data. Please disregard the current timeseries data from mid-February 2008 to present until we rectify the data issues. The spatial maps should be fine?.

Darren:

Of course this should be taken seriously, 1" per year of global sea surface rise is nothing to sneeze at.

Now if you want me to laugh about it, I just might. Of course, there are people in this world who will be shocked at the fast rise of the waste and will require assistance to escape the oncoming "calamity".

Jeffrey:

Oh wow, since summer starting in Antarctica and the Arctic ice is growing, it is time to change the AGW cruises to see how the penguins will die from heat.

Patrick Henry:

A lot of good discussion on climate audit recently describing how GHCN and GISS temperature data is consistently manipulated to create the appearance of a warming trend.

http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2807#comments

ted:

An article that does not call AGW the culprit? I am shocked! Which is a change from a 2005 article by the same BAS.
In the fourth paragraph in 2005 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4471135.stm
the survey team wrote "The overall picture is of glaciers retreating in a pattern that suggests the most important factor is atmospheric warming; we can connect the retreat with the observed warming recorded at climate stations along the peninsula," explained Dr David Vaughan, from the British Antarctic Survey (Bas).

In this article “The reason does not seem to be warming in the surrounding air.” It is not mentioned until paragraph 23.
Before that paragraph we have all kinds of inferences to instability.
“UK scientists working in Antarctica have found some of the clearest evidence yet of instabilities in the ice of part of West Antarctica. If the trend continues, they say, it could lead to a significant rise in global sea level.”
Considering the reading level of most of the public all they think of is, “Boy that sounds like Al Gore is right.”
It’s not till paragraph 27 that something as minor as the ice sheet is sitting on volcanoes is mentioned,
“….the whole region could be volcanically active, releasing geothermal heat to melt the base of the ice and help its slide towards the sea.”
Has anybody ever put an ice cube on a hot stove? Magma temp is around 1170 C,which is a bit hotter than a stove. I dare say the ice sitting on that melts and moves downhill no matter what the ambient air temp is.
But if you want to get published, funded and have integrity instead of saying “Ocean Temp and Volcanoes not hot air could cause Ice sheet to Melt.” you have to bury your hypothesis and explanations so deep into the article that only a few will see it. Then you title the article, "Antarctic glaciers surge to ocean"
Subterfuge? Well maybe but a funding we shall go and you can still sleep at night.
You gotta love science, funding and politics.

Mike G:

I wonder whether the instability may be due to seismic activity, volcanoes, and ocean currents.

Wasn't the past winter also one of the harshest for the southern hemisphere in quite a while?
If so, I could imagine that the expanding sheets of snow/ice would behave in unique and different ways.

Still more questios than answers I suppose.

Diana Goodger:

Hey PH, why virgins? Or are you suggesting the publicity hounds are sexually inexperienced? That would explain some of their behavior.

Kipp Alpert:

Patrick:
You pay the taxes and I'll take the virgins. Did you see that article. Looks like Julian just took a big bong hit. A study from the UK just sayed that they were beginning to study the temperature of the antarctic and doubted that any melting there would take place, in a hundred years at least, if there is melting. Since The Royal Academy just started their findings,than I guess this article is useless.
Patriarc Hexxon: Where you there 2000 years ago or did your dad tell you about this event.
Kipp

Veets:

Kipp,

I reckon PH was referring to this statement

"There is also evidence of a volcano that erupted through the ice about 2,000 years ago and the whole region could be volcanically active, releasing geothermal heat to melt the base of the ice and help its slide towards the sea, according to Scott."

Kudo's on the reading comprehension though!

Patrick Cyclonebuster:

Fast or slow ice into the ocean can be stopped by the "TUNNELS" regulation of SSTs. Computer models will prove this.

Steve Bloom:

The key point here isn't so much what's currently lubricating the ice but that the ice has responded with a rapid acceleration. This is evidence that the ice sheets are capable of rapid collapse, which a few years ago was thought to be impossible.

Brett, you should blog the recent Greenland study that links recent increases in surface melt to mass loss within individual ice drainage basins. The NASA press release is here and the paper is here. This is obviously not good news for the Greenland ice sheet, but it also tells us to expect the same thing in Antarctica as soon as significant surface melting begins there.

Why the currents are warming is another good topic for a post. It turns out that this process is a result of the observed expansion of the tropics (which pushes everything toward the poles, including the winds that drive the circumpolar current in the Southern Ocean). This research also looks to be a key piece of the deglacial process puzzle.

Come to think of it, have you ever posted on the tropics expansion/climate zone shift? This would be a good chance to do so. Reply: yes, I did by the way.

Patrick Henry:

Hi Kipp,

If the melting is due to geothermal heat, climate models of Antarctica are useless in predicting the behavior of the ice sheet on the Peninsula and West Antarctica.

Actually, they are pretty useless even under the best of circumstances....

Anonymous:

"What could be the reasons for this?"

More snow

saly:

If the glacier is speeding up, shouldn't there be a big crack in it somewhere at it's beginning?

If there is not crack where it's split and sliding faster
then more snow is falling, making more glacier, making it move faster

Patrick Henry:

Hi Diana,

Remember the kid with the thick glasses who couldn't get a date in high school? He is now a "climate modeler."

Kipp Alpert:

Patrick Henry:
Two things. What is wrong with the ice core data that we are getting from the arctic. It was supposedly taken from an area which has always remained the same, and although there are anomelys,since this ice has been solid and,they say,a good objective area what am I missing.
Also I have read the expensively made 07 IPCC report(therefore it is free). I am not happy with this consensus in that it is too sure,and does not question but only judges facts based on their likely,to too certain, measurements. A strange way to judge science fact scenarios. I don't know where else to get my information. If you could take a little time and share some sights that I could learn from I would appreciate that.
Thanks, Kipp

Kipp Alpert:

Patrick Henry:
Two things. What is wrong with the ice core data that we are getting from the arctic. It was supposedly taken from an area which has always remained the same, and although there are anomelys,since this ice has been solid and,they say,a good objective area what am I missing.
Also I have read the expensively made 07 IPCC report(therefore it is free). I am not happy with this consensus in that it is too sure,and does not question but only judges facts based on their likely,to too certain, measurements. A strange way to judge science fact scenarios. I don't know where else to get my information. If you could take a little time and share some sights that I could learn from I would appreciate that.
Thanks, Kipp

Patrick Henry:

Hi Steve Bloom,

For the past 30 years Antarctic sea ice has been steadily increasing, and particularly over the last five years - reaching a record maximum extent this year.
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/s_plot.html
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.area.south.jpg

That hardly sounds like an "expanding tropics."

It has been very cold in Antarctica the past year, and nearby ocean temperatures have also been anomalously low - so whatever caused the claimed 700% speedup of the glacier had nothing to do with "global warming."

BTW - Last time I checked, lava was warmer than water.

Marie:

Arctic Ice extent is nearly identical to this date 13 years ago.
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=02&fd=26&fy=1995&sm=02&sd=26&sy=2008

Mr. G:

Are we sure that it is not growing?

Steve Bloom:

Thanks, Brett. I see that the tropical expansion post was a few months ago. This new paper would be a good follow-up, especially as it has a couple of useful illustrations.

Patrick Henry:

Global Warming to Take a Cold Shower in New York

Australia's Carbon Sense Coalition (Carbon Sense) has signed on as a co-sponsor of the 2008 International Conference on Climate Change, taking place in New York next week (2-4 March 2008).

The conference will feature internationally recognized speakers from Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, and Europe.

"We compliment Professor Ross Garnaut for acknowledging that the science is not settled and for seeing value in expanding the global scientific effort beyond the IPCC," Forbes said. "We urge Professor Garnaut, and Ministers Penny Wong and Peter Garrett, to attend the New York conference to see the powerful new scientific arguments and evidence that have emerged since the now-outdated work supporting latest IPCC reports."
http://www.foxbusiness.com/article/global-warming-cold-shower-new-york_495661_1.html


BTW - after last week's glowing endorsement by the Communist revolutionary president of Nicaragua, our next President just picked up another one from the apocalyptic president of Iran. Liberals must be in ecstasy seeing the world "coming together" around a common set of revolutionary values.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=080228105322.ylw1j5ia&show_article=1

george n:

There are several things I wonder about here, I have mentioned before the blasting with dynamite in long series of holes in grid patterns before with regards to break ups of Antarctic Ice Shelves. Blasting the Ice like this will surely weaken it and cause fissures. Also, I seem to remember an artical about the huge amounts of snow falling at particular Antarctic Science Camps...With summer melt reducing the snow cover by not much. SO, it is my understanding that Glaciers are built from snow piling up , rivers of snow and ice...thus all this expanding Glacier action is the result of greater snowfalls? Greater volume of snow pack ice to be delivered down stream to the sea? AGW doesn't acknowledge any of this. By the way anyone going out and actually looking at cirrus clouds yet?

Patrick Henry:

Can You Profit from Global Warming?

As climate change becomes a mainstream issue, it's also gaining traction as an important theme for investors eager to profit from big trends emerging on the horizon.

http://www.alternet.org/environment/77860/

Follow the money......