The global warming panic - led by people like Bill Easterling - has caused a rush to biofuels, which is resulting in immediate shortages in the world food supply. Thus proving Franklin Roosevelt's astute observation, once again.

"We have nothing to fear, but fear itself"

During the dust bowl, people had to deal with incredibly hot temperatures, drought and fire - much worse than anything we have experienced in our lifetime. Good thing that people were less superstitious 70 years ago.

1938 had spectacularly hot temperatures (before Hansen started manipulating them downwards.) Most of the country was averaging 5-10 degrees above normal.

January 1938
February 1938
March 1938
April 1938
May 1938
June, 1938
July 1938
August 1938
September 1938
October 1938
Dust storms
Forest fires

Also interesting from NOAA records is that solar activity and sunspots used to be a standard part of the forecasting methodology.

The first factor is related to the 11-year sun-spot cycle, occurring most frequently two years after the sun-spot minimum and three or four years after sun-spot maximum, so that it tends to recur ever five or six years. Great droughts occur only when both of these factors are favorable.
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/050/mwr-050-02-0093a.pdf
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/050/mwr-050-02-0096.pdf
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/050/mwr-050-01-0020c.pdf

I'm not sure how the IPCC got the 10-12 billion number. In Western Europe, the fertility rate averages around 1.87 children per couple, with Russia, Greece, Spain, Italy, and Great Britain averaging as low as 1.2 children per couple. In Japan the fertility rate has gone below 1.2 children per couple. China, which doesn't release fertility numbers, has had a one child policy since 1978. The rapidly growing Chinese urban middle class rarely has more than 1 child. India, which overall has a fertility rate of around 3.2, has seen its fast growing middle class reduce its fertility rate to below 2.

Subsahran Africa has seen its populations decimated by war, famine, and AIDS. Only in East Asia and South America, and North Africa does one see population growth, but these areas cannot produce the kind of numbers that can offset population reductions in Europe, Russia, North America, and Asia. Demographers note that a couple must produce 2.1 children in order to grow the population. When a nation goes below 1.2, it essientially will halve its population every generation. When a nation falls below this, it almost reaches a point of no return.

Earlier this decade, the UN did publish that the world will hit a population peak around 2050, and from there it will begin to slowly fall or stay steady. This appears very optimistic. A chain reaction to the consequences of both an aging West (Where 80% of the world's wealth resides), and rapidly growing world underclass does not bode well. The population of the globe could peak much earlier (2030), and begin to rapidly decline afterwards.

As populations worldwide begin to spend much of thier wealth caring for the elderly, either through the liquidation of assests or wealth transfers (taxes), there will be less money and other assets to spend on the growing populations in East Asia and South America. Free Trade is the best way to accomadate this, but in recent years mechanisms such as NAFTA have become very unpopular. The issue will not be one of food shortages, but lack of capital to ensure that poorer nations can afford it.

2008 is expected to end up among the top 10 warmest years since records began in the 1860s.

Never mind the cold and the persistent La Nina - the "experts" are telling us that they can still manipulate the data upwards anywhere they want to.

NASA satellite data this week showed the thickest and oldest ice around the North Pole has been disappearing.

Never mind that it is winter and the ice has been getting steadily thicker. The "experts" can get quoted saying anything they want, without the slightest question or hint of intelligence from the press.

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=386562

The Mystery of Global Warming's Missing Heat

NPR Morning Edition, March 19, 2008 Some 3,000 scientific robots that are plying the ocean have sent home a puzzling message. These diving instruments suggest that the oceans have not warmed up at all over the past four or five years. .... Josh Willis at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory says the oceans are what really matter when it comes to global warming.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=88520025

Rather than headlining it as "Food For Warming World", why not "Food For A Growing Population"? Warming actually extends the amount of farmland and the amount of food brought up from the earth, the problem Again is that it is POLITICS creating the problem. One thing is for certain, with the exploding population, the earth simply cannot sustain this growth indefinitely and I consider population explosion far far worse than some natural planetary warming of a half a tenth of a degree.....

This was in Drudge today:Oceanic robotic readings dispute warming: Some 3,000 scientific robots that are plying the ocean have sent home a puzzling message. These diving instruments suggest that the oceans have not warmed up at all over the past four or five years. That could mean global warming has taken a breather. Or it could mean scientists aren't quite understanding what their robots are telling them.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=88520025

There seems to always be an out: "scientists aren't quite 'understanding' what their robots are telling them'...." sheesh....why am i already certain what the message will be once they 'understand' and put the usual spin on it?.....

Here's a little something for our "progressive" friends (attention Mark, BT, Boris, Kippy, et.al.) to chew on:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=88520025

Oh, the spin! Got to hand it to National Public Radio. They really know how to skirt the facts.

NPR. One more reason to DENY DENY DENY THE GLO-BULL WARMING LIE!!!!!!

Bill Easterling's comments were quite twisted and bizarre. His train of logic seems to jump all over the place. One thing he said was nothing short of stunning.

"stick to your convictions and beliefs"

That is precisely the problem. Too few people are open minded enough to look at the science objectively.

Thanks for a great series of videos Katie!

OIznip et al,

Did you notice the quote "...it's also possible that something more mysterious is going on". Have these "scientists" never heard of the sun, the Earth's orbit, wobble, etc., that are clearly explained in the dissenting (I dislike the term 'Denier') real science? The whole article is in denial over the fact that Global Warming isn't happening - just like the one Marie quotes from the National Post. Does it take another ice age to make these people take their heads out of the sand, snow or another four-letter word starting with 's'?

Environment
The Mystery of Global Warming's Missing Heat� Some 3,000 scientific robots that are plying the ocean have sent home a puzzling message. These diving instruments suggest that the oceans have not warmed up at all over the past four or five years. That could mean global warming has taken a breather. Or it could mean scientists aren't quite understanding what their robots are telling them.

GET A NEW CAREER BRETT!!!!!!!!!!!

10-12 billion more people on earth at the end of this century? Who has this job to make this calculation? How do you know or even guess that? Let me guess Al Gore thought it up. Not saying it won't happen but if it does this global warming thing better speed it up a notch because at the rate its gone there will not be enough land to grow crops for that many people. Join me folks in scaring the living daylights out of everybody then I'll let them believe that only I can save them and become president in 2012. It would work, alot of people fall for that stuff. Anyone want to be vice president? Brenneman for president 2012! I can fix Global Warming, grow crops, make everyone on earth kiss and hug and become friends and we all become one earth of people, dang that sounds like an O'Bama line. Made people happy and I didn't say a thing.

Sorry, off topic, but really cool!

This may help with predicting tornados. For those of you interested in weather, this is really neat. It's a gravity wave. "They are similar to waves on the surface of the ocean, but they roll through the air instead of the water. Gravity is what keeps them going."

Click on the VIDEO once there.

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/19mar_grits.htm?list1040802

I like NASA, when they aren't manipulating data ;)

I must have missed something because the video that I clicked on above doesn't have anything in it about food or the economy. Is there another video?

Josh B. - People are always making projections into the future. Have ya ever heard of economics or math? How about taking past population growth and calculating or estimating, if you will, what the future growth might be? Do you need to call Al Gore?

Here, a quick example: Do you know what the population of the world was in 1900? I'll give ya a hint: 1.6 billion. Do you know what the population of good 'ol Earth is now? Well, it's about 6.5 billion. You do the math. It is amazing that the population of earth has grown by 5 billion people in 100 years.

Here's a link:
http://www.livescience.com/strangenews/060224_world_population.html

It's just my opinion, but I don't think it matters if it's 8 billion or 10 billion or 12 billion. That's a lot of people to feed. Whether it's a warming world or a cooling one. That's why we need science, scientists, engineers, etc.

Oh, by the way, good luck on your quest to be president. LOL!

About the predictions for the global population: Some people who think the predicted 10-12 billion people is a huge overestimate may be forgetting that it is not just the birthrate, but also lifespan, that determines population trends. The oft-quoted 2.1 children per family maintaining a stable population only applies when the age of the population is stable (i.e., when the average lifespan is not changing).

Wow, I see that the initiative to make this forum less political in nature has really paid off. Just from reading, moreover, I'm astonished that most people who post comments classify themselves as "skeptics," when over 95% of the comments accept any report claiming to provide evidence against AGW without the slightest criticism, no matter what its source; and condemn, without the slightest hesitation, any report claiming to provide evidence for AGW (usually with a jab at Al Gore, as if he had anything to do with the survey data). Recall that a skeptic is critical of all the evidence. Or perhaps none of the truly skeptical readers make any comments?

Rob,

You're perception is spot on. This blog is highly political and very negative at times. I think that's why many skeptics avoid it.

Gary, What do you mean by negative? Are you talking about the comments? Brett

The limiting factor for food will not be the temperatures but the available water supply. The guy may be a climate scientist but sure isn't a farmer.

Oiznop and Steve Rowland:
Here is a dilemma in spin. What do you do when observational data doesn’t agree with the models?
I looked at three articles published earlier this century, all using models predicting that the oceans are warming. The one from Livermore Lab even went so far to say it must be true with 84% certainty.
No. 1 used 2 forced models to make their declarative statement.
No. 2 It has to be true because the esteemed, “Dr. James E. Hansen, a climate expert at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, said the finding was important because, "in my opinion, the rate of ocean heat storage is the most fundamental number for our understanding of long-term climate change."
No. 3 Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in 2006 used 22 of their best models to say man is inducing ocean temp increases and “Research published during the past year has uncovered evidence of a link between rising ocean temperatures and increases in hurricane intensity.”
SO all the models prove AGW will be causing the ocean temps to rise.
But then we get the actual observational data from 3000 different instruments and they say the Oceans are not heating up! Well the authors have some doubt because actual measurements disagree with the models! The instruments are telling them the oceans are not heating up but since that disagrees with the 24 models that declares with 84% certainty that the ocean temps have to be rising doubt the accuracy of the 3000 instruments.
This is a new science principle: If the actual data from your experiment does not agree with your theory or models…it must be that the actual observational temperatures are wrong……not the computer models.
Could it be Dr. Hansen that you really don’t have any understanding of the oceans or long term climate change?
And this “science” wonders why folks are laughing at them?

Reference material
1. 2 June 2005 Penetration of Human-Induced Warming into the World's Oceans.
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/309/5732/284
2.March24,2000 Researchers Find Ocean Temperature Rising, Even in the Depths
http://www.guerrillacampaign.com/Researchers%20Find%20Ocean%20Temperature%20Rising,%20Even%20in%20the%20Depths.htm

3. September 11, 2006 Human Activities Are Boosting Ocean Temperatures in Areas Where Hurricanes Form,
http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2006/oceantemps.shtml

Gary,

I aware of what a projection is, but people read projections and take them as the gospel, wouldn't you say that alot of people have done that with the global warming tales. {Al Gore, a jab to the left jab to the right, this man is going down}. Another point, just wondering where you apply to get these jobs, its sounds like fun making predictions and getting paid no matter if it happens or not. And if the population in 1900 was alittle over 1 billion and now around year 2000 6 billion that is six times as many and if you multiply like that I come up with 36 BILLION people by the end of the next century. Sign me up, this projection job stuff is right up my alley. Looking in crystal ball now, ice caps are growing.....sea level rise does not happen....some people realize this has been a hoax and are not happy......drill for oil in Alaska and gas prices fall......people finally realize that food comes from farms and the farmers finally get the respect they have deserved for a long time and they will be as they have been the ones to keep the country and the world moving and will find and discover new ways to produce food in smaller areas and at a quicker rate. This was about the food supply anyways, "right".

without the slightest criticism, no matter what its source; and condemn, without the slightest hesitation, any report claiming to provide evidence...

Hi Rob,

Thanks - a brilliant description of the way the press mindlessly parrots AGW press releases.

Rob,
the average lifespan in North America is still about 70 years - has been for around 35 years. Ditto for Europe. In Russia it is about 60 years; 74 for Japan. A bit lower for India. You also seem blissfully aware what occurs to a society that produces on average 1 child per couple. You seem unaware what would occur if say 45% of a society has a population over 68, while its youngest adult population makes up only 20%.

Gary B,

If you are referring to my post, the YES you missed something.

You missed "sorry, off topic" and also "may help in predicting tornados." The first 2 sentences of my comment, is what you "missed."

Whats up Gary? You seem irritable. Is it due to the brutal winter? Ya, me too.

SOYLENT GREEN Anyone? Yum

On December 29, 1954 hurricane Alice formed south of Haiti, and caused considerable damage to the Leeward Islands on January 2, 1955.

http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/084/mwr-084-01-0001.pdf

Imagine the uproar if this happened today. It would be declared a sure sign of impending doom. Global warming hysteria relies entirely on a lack of historical knowledge of the audience.

Hurricane Alice of 1955 gave rise to considerable speculation at the time of its formation due to its unseasonable occurrence. This storm had its genesis in a low pressure center which formed during December 29, 1954, around
latitude 21' N., longitude 49' W. (fig. 1). It then drifted west-southwestward, gradually developing warm-core properties, and intensified to hurricane proportions by the afternoon of January 1, 1955. During January 2 the storm passed over the Leeward Islands causing considerable damage.

Said Bastardi, "The maturation of the La Nina to its classic major cold look, both in the equatorial Pacific waters and the amazing amount of the Northern Hemisphere troposphere that is covered by colder-than-normal temperatures, is not only a major driving force in the everyday weather picture of Earth, but is a sign that in the end, it is nature, not man, that will have its way with the weather.

"It is straight out of the book of climate," Bastardi adds. "The pattern is so much like the 1949-1950 La Nina, which was signaling the start of the reversal of the warming of the Earth's climate in the 1930s, '40s, and early '50s. Only someone choosing to ignore it, or not wanting to see it, would not be cognizant of it."

http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=22942

More historical evidence of how extreme the climate has always been.

http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/088/mwr-088-07-0257.pdf

July 1960 was especially noteworthy for prolonged, excessive heat in the Pacific Northwest. The greatest departures of average temperature from normal, more than 6" F., were centered on,the Oregon-Idaho boundary (fig. 1). New temperature records at Boise, Idaho included an all-time high of 111F. on the 19th, 27 days with 90" or higher, 11 days with 100F or higher, and the highest monthly average in 62 years. New records at other stations appear in table 1. Sustained high temperatures, low humidity, and little precipitation brought, in the words of LaMois of the U.S. Forest Service [I] ". . . ext