The usual condescending print. Probably the most that can be hoped for.

Practically every person of skeptical persuasion has cautioned not to take this years climate as a wholesale change in the pattern.

It was a belittling article focused at skeptics, please tell me if I am wrong.

Summer is just around the corner, we'll just have to wait and see how the ice melts.

Looking at the graph, there doesn't seem to be a strong correlation between La Ninas and cooler temps, nor El Ninos and warmer temps. There was a much stronger La Nina several years ago which didn't result in any real cooling.

The long-term trend in the Pacific Ocean is towards lower ocean temperatures. The Pacific has cooled 1.8 degrees Farenheit (before this year) while the Atlantic has warmed. It was just a matter of time before the cooler Pacific (which is twice the size of the Atlantic) translated into cooler land temps.

This appears to be the coldest winter globally since 1992. Then, the global warming advocates attributed the cold winter to the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Phillipines. In 2008 there is no explanation due to vulcanism.

I'll go read the article now, but the graph seems clear enough. No warming since 98 and now perhaps the start of a downward trend.

This is about like watching paint dry.

All the best

Aaron

I am not sure who is where on what in this fight anymore.

But I would like to shine this late on what I believe to be reliable data and information, hoping to hear what others see.

When the weather (word chosen carefully) was warm, the great hue and cry was "global warming due to rising carbon dioxide levels--the science is settled, this is the Truth".

In the mean time the carbon dioxide saturation increased, but the temperature went down...or at least did not go up for a long time.

When the wind blew the ice out of the Northwest passage the great hue and cry involved disaster due to rising carbon dioxide and the concommitant rise in temperature.

With the carbon dioxide saturation continuing to go up, it got cold for some reason and the ice came back.

Similar sequences including snow in mid-summer, I hear, in the southern hemisphere (including glaciers _pro_ceeding instead of receding.

Oh, and some of the fixes being put into place are now worsening the problem, or creating new problems as bad as or worse than the worst that was predicted.

Is it possible that he skeptics and deniers were on to something?

Apparently the recent cooling is being a little oversold. According to a blogger over at the competition, for an index that includes 50 U.S. cities:

"[T]here were more days in February 2.0 degrees above their historical counterparts than days 2.0 degrees below. Among the 1,450 measurements for the month, 689 days (48 per cent) posted in the +2.0 or more category, while only 556 (38 per cent) were -2.0 or more.

"While the cold temperatures received the bulk of attention in February, several cities were swept by unseasonably warm temperatures. San Antonio, TX, saw 17 days +6.0 or more. Charleston, SC, posted 15 days of temperatures +6.5 or more, with Washington, DC, recording 13 days of temps +9.0."

It certainly has been a cold winter, but it appears that a lot of what's going on is people paying much more attention to cold temperatures in winter (just as they do to warm temperatures in summer) while ignoring the other extremes.

I am looking forward to the up coming months in regards to how the planet is going to respond to the recent drop in temperatures. Water vapor levels have been consistently rising over a 25 year period until about 2005. Now , the Sun has decided to take an extended nap. The Earth begins to rid itself of the excess water vapor that a cooler atmosphere can no longer continue to hold , and like a sponge being wrung out, we see a winter of some of the most amazing recorded precipitation events in recent history. Last I knew , Precipitation is usually accompanied by Clouds. If increased cloud cover is what should be expected from increased precipitation activity , then the possibility of both increased albedo and Infrared Iris feedbacks continuing to support further atmospheric cooling is not out of the question. A Negative Feedback Loop. If this were to happen , it would render invaluble information as to how feedback systems [ both Negative & Positive ] really function in a non-linear enviroment such as the Earth's climate . This is not only important from a qualitative aspect i.e. - How they work , but also from a quantitative level as to there magnitudes i.e. - just how really powerful are these mechanisms? We have a Golden opportunity to learn . Let's hope the opportunity is not lost ; it may be a long time before we get another chance to witness such a thing again.

The NY Times? This is the most widely read, liberally biased toilet paper in America. And people criticize the Heartland Institute? Anyway...

1.) If you look at the El Nino and La Nina events chart, focus on the consecutive PEAKS of WARMTH. They are on their way DOWN. He tries to distract you by mentioning the cold peaks. Nice try jackass.

2.) According to the monthly temperature anomaly chart, THIS WINTER had THE STEEPEST drop in temperature, over such a short period of time, ANYWHERE on that chart.

3.) OMG! No they didnt! They started the annual anomaly chart AFTER the Little Ice Age. LMAO!!! Beginning around 1850, the LIA ended and the climate began warming. Brilliant!!!

How many skulls of mush are going to read this crap and panic?

I got to give it to the Times though. They seem to have a nice, dry sense of humor. I dont think Ill be subscribing anytime soon though.

The La Nina is fading. Apparently the space invaders have decided to cut the practical joke and let us get back to the serious business of saving our planet.

So which excuse for deviating from Hansen's graphs will the alarmists use next? Or will they just blindly let Hansen continue to manipulate the data upwards to stay happily on track.

This really doesn't say very much at all. I am a skeptic personally, but cannot at this point deny the amount of evidence put forward in the 2007 IPCC report. I wish that it isn't true, and will keep an open mind to any changes. This is like wanting a death sentence for the human race. You would have to be a fool to want global warming, or realize that it is caused by man. I hope the Earth will get colder and the albedo will start to decline in temperature. I would not call people who don't accept Global Warming as false skeptics. I think, like our first American patriots, they are defending the right to keep our country free from the reactions of others to the AGW conclusion. They hopefully could be our first pioneers, who must battle the hype,media, and those faithful believers,like lemurs towards our own ultimate destruction. I hope that they are right. The reason that I like this board, is that you are not a bunch of wining conformists, and rather fight, than fall into to complacency.
KIPP

That's odd.

Global warming and climate change are based on recorded temperatures. Usually yearly.

When a years temperature averages suddenly drop to record lows it would seem more odd to ignore them.

I would think that most "skeptics" would be looking at the flat line from 2001 through 2007.

Then the falling off the charts temperature drop in 2008.

There are clear biased distortions in the graphs provided. The NYT should have their draftsman fired.
The most obvious is given on the lower graph which shows the temperature at 2008 close to the 1961-1990 average whereas the longer term trend over 1980-2008 shows a strong increasing trend with 2008 close to 0.8 degrees F. Perhaps the graphic artist has not plotted the last few months of 2007. We wouldnt want to get the impression that we are back down to average temperatures would we?

The BBC is reporting major spending cuts for many important science projects.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7274956.stm

We all know that there is only one truly important field of science - i.e. manipulating temperature records.

The real proof of all of this won't come until we go into the cold phase of the AMO. Then we'll be able to see how much arctic warming is down to warmth from the Atlantic being pushed into the pole, and how much is warming caused by GHG's.

As the Atlantic is still pretty warm, I'd expect another fairly dramatic melt this summer, La Nina or not.

Doesn't have to be cold to fire up this AMERICAN GW DENIER! Even when we hit the 90's last summer (gee for two whole weeks!), Glo-BULL Warming is still a CROCK!!!! As for the article being belittling, I am commenting right now without actually reading it so I don't know. But we are talking about the New York Times. (Such open minded and unbiased reporting). If the article is belitting of we who call this fraud for what it is, I would not be surprised.

I'd rather sweat and swelter than shovel, shiver, slip, slide, scrape, salt and slop! I NEED SOME GLOBAL WARMING.....YESTERDAY!!!!!!!

Snowfall at Telluride has been above the 32 year average every year since 1995.
http://images.townnews.com/telluridewatch.com/content/articles/2008/02/05/news/doc47a79a3c871d1679471985.jpg

Red Mountain (Aspen) is skiable for the first time since 1984
http://www.aspentimes.com/article/20080202/RECREATION01/465459940

Deer and elk in Colorado are dying from excessive snow and cold.
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/feb/02/phil-says-alpine-residents-fed-snow-better-get-use/

Meanwhile, back at the climate change funding swamp-

scientists at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography said a water supply crisis was looming in the western United States thanks to human-caused climate change that has already altered the region's river flows, snow packs and air temperatures.
http://www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSN2636284020080226

Big drifts spur flood worry

entering what is typically Colorado's snowiest month - March - concern about possible flooding is rising.

"It definitely is worrisome," said Mark Haynes, chief of dam safety with the Colorado Division of Water Resources. "We need to make sure to monitor and watch how the snowpack will melt off."

February marked the third consecutive month of above-average snowfall in the mountains. March 1 snow surveys by the Natural Resources Conservation Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture show above-average snowpack in every major river basin of the state.

The Upper Rio Grande Basin is at a whopping 169 percent of average, and many water reservoirs across the state are storing water at, or above, average levels.

http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_8453752

FINALLY! A brief blog on the cold year we just had. Too bad you picked a nice boring article that few will read.
Seems to me a year in which global temps drop to lowest level in years would warrant extensive coverage.
Also, isnt there a conference going on in New York about this stuff? Yeah, y'all did publish a little about it but not nearly enough. Didnt see the networks there either!

Don: I did two stories related to it with links to the Heartland Institute who was the main sponser. We were not able to get a camera crew to New York due to the short notice. We did not find out about the conference until last Thursday and that is just not enough time to get a a crew scheduled with Katie to do that. Believe me, I wish we had known about this well in advance because we would have been there, no doubt. Katie is trying to get some footage of the conference from other sources for a future segment.

� an array of scientists who have staked out differing positions on the overall threat from global warming agree that there is no way to pinpoint whether such a new force is at work.

The preceeding (granted,out of context) quote I lifted from the NYT artical....suggests to me there is in fact a "new force" at work in the atmosphere. The dramatic drop in global temps is going to be interesting to monitor. Since summer 2006, Atlantic Hurricane season tropical storm predictions and dire warnings were severely wrong and the remarkable growth of polar sea ice at both poles suggests to me that the AGW Climate Crisis camp is back peddling with the old stand by excuse "it's just the weather"...as they shrug thier shoulders....

Steve Bloom,
You are correct. Personally, I never get too "excited" about record breaking weather events -cold or warm. However, what is interesting about 2007-2008 is the degree of cooling in relation to other La Ninas. The 1999-2001 La Nina appeared every bit as strong as this one, perhaps even stronger. That should not be a shock as the tropical Pacific rebounded from a record El Nino. Yet, the negative anomalies from 1999-2001 were only about 60% of the current ones.

What makes this La Nina interesting is that it followed a rather weak, short lived El Nino. The rebound was unexpected. There were 2 other weak El Ninos between 2001 and 2007; the attendent La Ninas that followed were even weaker. I'm not so sure all of the cooling the globe has seen since Jan 2007 can be attributed to La Nina. I think something else may be at play.

Gavin,
You may have to wait another decade for an AMO phase change; AMO cycles usually last 20-25 years. The current positive AMO began only in 1995.

Lank,
I think NASA (GISS Temps) use the 1951-1980 average, while NOAA uses 1961-1990. This is significant. I'm of the mind that we should at least attempt to use a 100 year median. A 100 year average takes into account at least one full PDO cycle, 2 AMO cycles, and 100 years worth of fluxes of the Walker Circulation.

The NASA average (1951-1980) is lower than NOAAs. The Great Pacific Climate Shift didn't occur until 1976. NOAA captures some of this (1976-90).What Hansen has done is take a "cold" average from another climate regime and compared current temps against that. I would imagine a 1900-1999 average would paint a different picture. Of course, there are problems with our surface data network. New discoveries in our network come to light almost daily.

I am in the skeptics camp, however, this AM I read a small article reporting the record warm winter in Scandanavia. What's up with this?

After record January snow cover, February snow cover continued the trend of above normal since 2002.
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/png/monthlyanom/nhland01.png
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/png/monthlyanom/nhland02.png

From Revkin's enlightened consensus comments, we can surmise that the current La Nina must have started in 2002.

hey steve bloom

for more cherry pickin' goodness

here in Sunny S. Indiana our February had 9 days above average and 17 below. 3 right at normal. if you are going to dwell on places that have been above, why not also focus on some of those who have not?

So much for 'predicting'...now this is 'climate' Not 'weather'...and back in October of 2007.

NOAA
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/20071009_outlook.html

NOAA forecasters are calling for above-average temperatures over most of the country and a continuation of drier-than-average conditions across already drought-stricken parts of the Southwest and Southeast in its winter outlook for the United States, announced at the 2007-2008 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference in Washington, D.C., today.

�La Ni�a is here, with a weak-to-moderate event likely to persist through the winter,� said Michael Halpert, head of forecast operations and acting deputy director of NOAA�s Climate Prediction Center. �The big concern this winter may be the persistence of drought across large parts of the already parched South. And while December through February is likely to be another milder-than-average winter for much of the country, people should still expect some bouts of winter weather.� (talk about hedging your bets)

Anthony Watts website
http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/02/19/january-2008-4-sources-say-globally-cooler-in-the-past-12-months/

The website DailyTech has an article citing this blog entry as a reference, and their story got picked up by the Drudge report, resulting in a wide distribution. In the DailyTech article there is a paragraph:

�Anthony Watts compiled the results of all the sources. The total amount of cooling ranges from 0.65C up to 0.75C � a value large enough to erase nearly all the global warming recorded over the past 100 years. All in one year time. For all sources, it�s the single fastest temperature change ever recorded, either up or down.�

I wish to state for the record, that this statement is not mine: ��a value large enough to erase nearly all the global warming recorded over the past 100 years�

There has been no �erasure�. This is an anomaly with a large magnitude, and it coincides with other anecdotal weather evidence. It is curious, it is unusual, it is large, it is unexpected, but it does not �erase� anything. I suggested a correction to DailyTech and they have graciously complied.

A few comments from Science Daily by our sidekick Mr. Hansen:
"As we predicted last year, 2007 was warmer than 2006, continuing the strong warming trend of the past 30 years that has been confidently attributed to the effect of increasing human-made greenhouse gases," said James Hansen, director of NASA GISS.

"It is unlikely that 2008 will be a year with truly exceptional global mean temperature," said Hansen. "Barring a large volcanic eruption, a record global temperature clearly exceeding that of 2005 can be expected within the next few years, at the time of the next El Nino, because of the background warming trend attributable to continuing increases of greenhouse gases."

So what is it? Are we warming or cooling? Guess it depends on whom you talk to.