Measuring the Accuracy of Climate Models
An example of a climate model, in this case NOAA's GFDL CM2.1 model.
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A study by meteorologists from the University of Utah shows that current climate models are indeed quite accurate and a valuable tool for seeking solutions on reversing global warming trends. The study will be published today in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. I expect to see some interesting comments from our readers in regards to this.
Co-authors Thomas Reichler and Junsu Kim measured how well climate models actually do their job in simulating climate. They compared the output of about 50 national and international climate models that were developed over the past two decades against observations for present climate.
Excerpt from the press release........
"Coupled models are becoming increasingly reliable tools for understanding climate and climate change, and the best models are now capable of simulating present-day climate with accuracy approaching conventional atmospheric observations," said Reichler. "We can now place a much higher level of confidence in model-based projections of climate change than in the past."
Other observations from the study......
--Models used for the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) paper have reached an unprecedented level of realism.
--Climate models built in the U.S. are now some of the best worldwide. (This reminds me of what you typically hear from the American auto industry.)
Here is the link to the full study (pdf. file)
By the way, after almost 4 weeks, my wife and new daughter are home! Hopefully, things will slowly get back to normal now. It was one crazy March! Brett






