Yes, I know, it's another hurricane post..............

By using a new technique (higher resolution global modeling), Kerry Emanuel, an atmospheric scientist from MIT, who focuses his studies on tropical cyclones, has determined that global warming should reduce the global frequency of hurricanes over the next 200 years. In 2005, Emanuel led a study which concluded that tied a global increase in the power expended by tropical cyclones to rising ocean temperatures due to global warming in storm prone areas. Here is a link to his older study, which was published in the Nature Journal.

Assuming there is no change in the increasing rate of global greenhouse emissions, Emanuel's new study finds that the world would likely experience FEWER tropical cyclones, but they would be more powerful and last longer.

Breaking down some of the latest findings of the new study through the last 20 years of the 22nd century...........

--There would be a decrease in frequency of events in the southern hemisphere, but an increase in storm intensity. See figure 8 in the pdf.

--There would be an increase in the frequency of western Pacific Tropical cyclones. See figure 8.

--The interannual variablity of storm frequency in the Atlantic Basin responds reasonably well to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Basically this means that the ENSO is a major determining factor on how many storms there may be in the Atlantic Basin during a given year. See figure 8.

--There will be a smaller long-term percentage increase in basin-wide storm frequency going out to the last 20 years of the 22nd century. See figure 10.

The new study was published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

The Christian Science Monitor has an article on this story right here if you do not have time to look at the pdf.

Nature Reports had a recent review of Emanuel's book titled "What We know about Climate Change".

Update:

4/15/08: Here's a follow up to this story..........Fox and Friends interviewed Kerry Emanuel this morning. Here is how News Hounds described the segment. Keep in mind, News Hounds is clearly an anti-Fox News website. Note the red slogan at the top left.