Sea level Forecast is Widely Inaccurate, according to New Study
Researchers from the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory in the UK, using a new, more accurate reconstruction of sea levels over the past 2000 years have concluded that sea levels will be 0.8 to 1.5 meters (2.6-4.9 feet) higher by the beginning of the next century. Compare that to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) prediction of a rise of 18-59 centimeters (0.6-1.9 feet) by 2100.
"For the past 2,000 years, the sea level was very stable," Svetlana Jevrejeva, a physical oceanographer said, explaining that they rose just 2 cm in the 18th century, 6 cm in the 19th century and a greater 19 cm last century. "It seems that rapid rise in the 20th century is from melting ice sheets," she adds.
Why the big difference compared to the IPCC forecast? The research team from Poudman said the IPCC had NOT accounted for ice dynamics- the more rapid movement of ice sheets due to melt water (lubrication) which could greatly speed up their disappearance and boost sea levels.
Steve Nerem from the University of Colorado says that there is now a lot of evidence out there that does indeed support an increase of about a meter by 2100, but that rise will not be uniform around the globe.
According to the New Scientist article, most scientists agree that the developing nations in Africa and Asia who lack the infrastructure to build up flood defences will be hardest hit in the future.
