AccuWeather.com
 Your Local Forecast  
Airport Search^
Airport Weather Forecast
X
 

Enter your airport code - See Common Codes
(example: BWI for Baltimore Washington Int.)

Radar Search^
Nexrad Radar Search
X
   

Enter your zip code
(example: 16801 for State College, PA)

Back to global warming center



Senior meteorologist with 18 years of experience at AccuWeather.
[ Bio ]

Headline: Earth
Headline: Earth™:
Katie Fehlinger hosts Headline: Earth, which takes an unbiased look at all sides of the global warming debate. The weekly show features the latest headlines related to global warming, along with interviews of prominent and newsworthy guests, including global warming legislation advocate and chairman of the Environment and Public Works Committee (EPW), Senator (D) Barbara Boxer of California and global warming skeptic and former EPW chairman, Senator (R) James Inhofe of Oklahoma. Visit Headline: Earth's video page to see any or all of Katie's videos.


July 2008
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
1 2 3 4 5
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
13 14 15 16 17 18 19
20 21 22 23 24 25 26
27 28 29 30 31
We'd like to hear your questions on global warming! You can send your questions here via email.

« Earth Day 2008 | Main | Is Ethanol a Failure? »

April 23, 2008

Lack of Clouds, not CO2 drove Early Supergreenhouse Periods

In a report released earlier this month, Penn State Paleoclimatologists determined that lower biological productivity during the Cretaceous and Eocene periods may have been the lever that caused supergreenhouse episodes during these periods by controlling cloud formation.

"In today's world, human generated aerosols, pollutants, serve as cloud condensation nuclei," says Lee R. Kump, professor of geosciences. "Biologically generated gases are dominant in the prehuman world. The abundance of these gases is correlated with the productivity of the oceans."

The researchers found that changes in the production of cloud condensation nuclei, the tiny particles around which water condenses to form rain drops and cloud droplets, decreased earth's cloud cover and increased the sun's warming effect 6-10% during supergreenhouse events in which the mean annual temperatures in the tropics were above 100 degrees Fahrenheit and polar temperatures were in the 50-degree Fahrenheit range.

"The Cretaceous was biologically unproductive due to less upwelling in the ocean and thermal stress on land and in the sea," says Kump. "That means fewer cloud condensation nuclei."

How about CO2? Proxies indicated that these prehuman periods never exceeded 4X the current CO2 level, which is not enough for their models to create the supergreenhouse conditions, but changing the earth's albedo could.

Share this:

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://global-warming.accuweather.com/blog/mt-tb.cgi/753

Comments (42)

Patrick Henry:

four times the current carbon dioxide level, which is not enough for the models to create supergreenhouse conditions

That contradicts Dr. Hansen, who says that the next 3% increase in CO2 will cause the end of civilization as we know it.

jep, Kansas USA:

It's absolutely fascinating that all past climate change is entirely natural, but all climate change since the mid-20th century is entirely man-made. I wonder how it is that none of the current warming is natural?

What's even more interesting to me are the studies showing CO2 always follows warming. This holds true for the paleoclimate and the present climate. If you want to hear some real spin, just ask an AGW proponent about that.

I hope that one day that there will be overwhelming evidence that this wonderful, magical, life giving compound, carbon dioxide will be excluded from any discussion blaming it for global warming. These findings, along with the Aqua Satellite and Argo robots data will help.

Paul:

...during the Cetaceous and Eocene periods...

Cetaceous, is that the early whaling period?

Reply: Hey, Those are the PSU report's words.

D Caldwell:

This has obvious implications for the alarmist models' prediction of climate catastrophe.

It will be interesting to see where this study appears and does not appear in the media. Any bets?

If it does appear anywhere, it will be interesting to see how quickly the alarmists jump to debunk it.

DC

mc:

I know this is off topic, but I stumbled across an article about improving the net energy gain from ethanol by finding a better way to ferment grain to generate ethanol. The source is Machine Design, which is an engineering magazine.

http://machinedesign.com/ContentItem/72401/ScanningforIdeasABetterWaytoMakeEthanol.aspx

Basically, this new method increases the net energy gain over 5 fold, going from 1.3 times to 7 times the input energy required. Costs would be at about $1/gallon at the current cost of corn. I, like most of the skeptics who post here, would love to see the US rid itself from foreign oil even though we are labeled as being tied to the big oil companies. I think ethanol is receiving a bad rap as a posssible solution, but I won't go in to that right now. Anyway, I am sure this technology could be used on crops like switchgrass as well. Technolgy such as this, brought to you by a free, capitalistic system will be the answer to our energy independence.

Thomas Blackmon:

This seems to be more of the sky is falling talk...Yet the global warmers get richer??Yet we are all no better off...

Reply: It is?????

Anonymous:

That contradicts Dr. Hansen, who says that the next 3% increase in CO2 will cause the end of civilization as we know it.

The additional 30% we have seen since the End of the Little Ice Age has coincided with the creation of a bunch of halfwits that believe, without any evidence, that the additional 30% caused a .6 K increase in temps when a 60% increase from the height of the last glacial period to the 1800's caused a 14 - 16 K increase.

Now by using The AGW Method (AKA BS) we can deduce that more halfwits are created when CO2 increases occur. No proof is needed, remember this is using The AGW Method.

All one needs is to have one of their buddies "Peer (wink wink) Review" it and have it passed off by a Committee was that formed to Pass off BS as fact if it meets a certain criteria. Studies that have the right key words and have no evidence whatsoever get a direct pass. Well, otherwise it wouldn't be fair if only studies that could actual prove something got passed. We have to remember many of these studies and all committees are made up of halfwits.

Using Rudimann, we can further deduce that a model created to show the number of halfwits born prior to 1850, "predicted in the past" should be more than we see today. Since we see even more halfwits (AKA AGW Zealots) the model must not be wrong but rather there must have been less halfwits prior to 1850 than once thought.

I can honestly see why most AGW advocates are angry and confused.

Once the world starts to cool and it is no longer fad to be a halfwit, they (the halfwits) will be whining about whatever Al Gore or some Supreme halfwit tells them to.

MOveON >:) Go protest something else you know little about.

Another study shows that we have more halfwits ever since the Gub-ment took such a lead role in educating most of our children. Those reliant on the Gub-ment or want to be are almost always halfwits. The study says so anyway :)

GW Steve:

I was the author of the post refering to halfwits and The AGW Method.

Steve

Ronnie Mashburn:


I have thought for several years that the percent of possible sunshine has been well above long term norms in northwest Florida. There seem to be very few periods of lasting cloudiness or rainy trends. Even in years when the precipitation is near normal it comes in short bursts with long dry periods. Just my thinking as only my observations over last 50 years are considered and not official records. However this trend seems to go hand in hand with warmer weather. Is it possible that this a widespread occurrence and is influencing warming?

Aaron:


me:

Still don't think it's gonna work. The world is now seeing grain shortages and one of the reasons is the diversion of resources to the production of feedstock for biofuels.

Celulosic? Still has to be cultivated, harvested and transported to processing. Much less dense than grain, much higher transportation costs.

Anyway, all this becomes a moot point if the next solar cycle doesn't show itself soon.

All the best

Aaron

Gary B:

warming in the past = no people, or few people and no industry = must have been natural.

warming in the present = aerosols, soot, Nox, CO2, sulfur dioxide, methane = a large portion coming from human activities = man contributing to global warming.

hmmm - rocket science it is not.

Anonymous:

I found this attached discussion also interesting about this Cretaceous supergreenhouse climate topic:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/01/the-debate-is-just-beginning-on-the-cretaceous/langswitch_lang/in

Here is a quoted passage from that attachment:

"Just when the hothouse starts looking really, really hot, along comes a new Science article by Bornemann et al: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/319/5860/189)
dealing with climatic conditions in the Turonian (93.5 to 89.3 million years ago). The principal result of this paper is that there appears to have been a 200,000 year period right smack in the middle of one of the warmest periods of the past half billion years, when there were ice sheets (presumably in Antarctica) that were up to 60% the volume of today's Antarctic ice sheets. How in the world do you get such large ice sheets in a high CO2 climate warm enough for crocodiles to survive in the Arctic at the other side of the planet? And this apparent glaciation is not the result of a global cold snap. As in the Eocene results quoted earlier, the tropical ocean surface temperatures are again on the order of 35C."

Let me repeat that, there is evidence that the Antarctic ice sheet appeared to maintain 60% of its volume during the Cretaceous supergreenhouse climate period. Of course without direct observation (like we have now) the methodology used to come up with that conclusion is one for discussion.

Meanwhile the Arctic Ocean was identified as being totally ice free during the same time.

Those that continually questioned the effects of global warming have allways emphasized the recent reports that shows an increase in glacial ice over Antarctic despite the noted increase in global temperatures. The current pattern of decreasing ice in the Arctic and nearly stable Anarctic ice appears to be matching a typical warming climate. Based on this information, perhaps those observations of increasing or stabilized ice fields over Antarctica may not be as conclusive as they suspect regarding whether or not global warming is occuring.

Josh Brenneman:

More sunshine equals more phytoplankton, more phytoplankton equals more oxygen and hydrogen sulfides and co2 absorbtion, water vapor requires oxygen, hydrogen and sulfates, sulfates contain dmso,msm which are absorbed in the water droplets and when in excess the clouds release rain and trace amounts fall back to earth and the process repeats. A Cycle, everything on earth goes in a cycle. More clouds less phytoplankton,less phytoplankton less clouds and more sun, the earth can affect its temps naturally without man. It is a cycle like alot of rabbits and a few wolves, wolf population grows, rabbits go down, few rabbits wolves die off, wolves die off, rabbits go up, a cycle and we have no control over it, its happened since the beginning of time. There will be another ice age, I wonder what will be the cause?

Patrick Henry:

Cold summer weather is hurting the butterfly population in the UK.

Butterflies need a warm summer in order to help numbers recover from last year's washout, say conservationists.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7363411.stm

Patrick Henry:

CPC's climate models predicted that the entire country would be above normal for the first four months of 2008.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/archives/long_lead/gifs/2007/200707temp.gif

Proving once again their complete disconnect from reality
http://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/YearTDeptUS.png

elee3:

Gary B.


Pre-industrial baseline 288,000
Natural additions 68,520
Man-made additions 11,880

Do you really think it is fair to so we added a considerable amount of co2 to the atmosphere?

On Earth Day, I bought a new car.

The good news is that, since my old car had been running for a good 6 months with the �Check engine� light on, I�m probably fouling the air less than I was the day before. For more http://lifeofearth.blogspot.com/2008/04/my-contribution-to-global-warming.html

RICH:

Well, no surprise to hear Gary B turn to the dark side. OK.

Hey Gary, you connected aerosols and atmospheric soot to global warming. How warming and not cooling with those 2 examples?

"aerosols are believed to have contributed a cooling tendency and also have contributed to "Global Dimming."

"The airborne soot dims sunlight reaching the surface, causing cooling"

What do you know about the earths "drafty" and "weakening" magnetic shield? Could this effect our biosphere?

emma:

lack of cloud due to active sun?

Elizabeth:

It is encouraging to read that, in the past, the earth has recovered from periods of "global warming". Even though these periods may be cyclical in nature, whatever the cause, we humans need to attempt, to the best of our ability, to not add to them or accelerate them. We do this for our grandchildren.

And, as to ethanol, while it may be necessary for a time, there are more possible answers. Is anyone aware of the University of New Hampshire study, old now (2004, University of New Hampshire Biodiesel Group), about producing biodiesel from algae?

http://www.unh.edu/p2/biodiesel/article_alge.html

Knowing that there are some answers and possibilities out there helps you sort those aluminum cans, plastic bottles and newspapers.

Adamant:

Just a question to all you Flat Earthers out there- exactly who are the "global warmers getting richer" that are referred to by Thomas Blackmon? I know Exxon and many other in the extractive industries have serious vested interests in maintaining their short term profits by Denying, but the converse I'm not clear on. Is it the researchers who have stumbled onto a junk science research goldmine (even if they are the ones in peer reviewed journals by a factor of 100:1 over the Denying researchers)? Is it environmental groups as posited by Creighton (BTW global warming until very recently was a very hard thing to raise any money on - you're much better off going with whales and wolves)? Or something or somebody else?

Patrick Henry:

Hi Elizabeth,

Our grandchildren will laugh about global warming, just like we do about global cooling from the 1970s.

If you want to do something useful for your grandchildren, I suggest focusing on something having to do with reality. There are plenty of serious environmental problems we could be dealing with.

http://www.lomborg.com/

jep, Kansas USA:

Can anybody give a reliable number on how much CO2 currently in the atmosphere is due to human activities? Please list the source, too.

Gary B:

Rich - No, I didn't turn to the dark side. I really don't know what you mean that it is no surprise. Why? Because I question Patrick Henry's data and motivations? I don't necessarily want to be on the "denier" side either. Not with PH posting false information and all the constant bashing of scientists...remember the "frozen waves on Lake Michigan" that PH posted about that turned out to be in Antarctica?

Patrick Henry:
Some pictures of how global warming is affecting Michigan.

http://codgy.com/michigan-winter-ice-waves/

Posted by Patrick Henry | April 17, 2008 9:05 AM

Travis and Paul both pointed out that PH was wrong, that it was Antarctica, yet PH never apologized or admitted that he posted wrong information. That would take credibility.

I often wonder if I should believe all of those graphs and charts that PH so conveniently "creates" with google? But that's another story. I really tire of the constant negativity from regulars on here about every topic.

Look at what PH is posting now - CPC long range predictions. We all know that those change. We all know that they aren't very accurate. It is called climatology and most who study climate and weather know that there is a 33.3% chance that it will be warm or cold in most areas. Am I surprised that CPC's long range is wrong? No.

EVERYONE who forecasts weather has a 10 or 15 day forecast. So, according to PH, everyone who predicts long range, who is wrong, must be dis-connected from reality?

My comment was directed at those who wonder why some scientists say that man is helping to cause global warming. I was trying to point out that man effects everything in the global environment. That's not rocket science. Did I say that CO2 is the main cause of warming? No. Do I wonder about the sun? Yes.

elee3 - If I knew what those numbers you posted mean, then I would respond. A link would help. Otherwise I say...I have no idea. Sorry.

Josh Brenneman:

Elizabeth, what do you mean recovered from global warming, maybe the earth recovers from global cooling, why is warming the all evil. Its like people think the earth should be a ball ice. Why!

Patrick Henry:

Am I surprised that CPC's long range is wrong? No.

Hi Gary B,

The entire global warming story is based around the idea that climate models