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Katie Fehlinger hosts Headline: Earth, which takes an unbiased look at all sides of the global warming debate. The weekly show features the latest headlines related to global warming, along with interviews of prominent and newsworthy guests, including global warming legislation advocate and chairman of the Environment and Public Works Committee (EPW), Senator (D) Barbara Boxer of California and global warming skeptic and former EPW chairman, Senator (R) James Inhofe of Oklahoma. Visit Headline: Earth's video page to see any or all of Katie's videos.


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« Is Global Warming Shifting the Jet Stream? | Main | Earth Day 2008 »

April 21, 2008

Sea level Forecast is Widely Inaccurate, according to New Study


Researchers from the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory in the UK, using a new, more accurate reconstruction of sea levels over the past 2000 years have concluded that sea levels will be 0.8 to 1.5 meters (2.6-4.9 feet) higher by the beginning of the next century. Compare that to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) prediction of a rise of 18-59 centimeters (0.6-1.9 feet) by 2100.

"For the past 2,000 years, the sea level was very stable," Svetlana Jevrejeva, a physical oceanographer said, explaining that they rose just 2 cm in the 18th century, 6 cm in the 19th century and a greater 19 cm last century. "It seems that rapid rise in the 20th century is from melting ice sheets," she adds.



Why the big difference compared to the IPCC forecast? The research team from Poudman said the IPCC had NOT accounted for ice dynamics- the more rapid movement of ice sheets due to melt water (lubrication) which could greatly speed up their disappearance and boost sea levels.

Steve Nerem from the University of Colorado says that there is now a lot of evidence out there that does indeed support an increase of about a meter by 2100, but that rise will not be uniform around the globe.

According to the New Scientist article, most scientists agree that the developing nations in Africa and Asia who lack the infrastructure to build up flood defences will be hardest hit in the future.

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Comments (30)

D Caldwell:

"...using a new, more accurate reconstruction of sea levels over the past 2000 years..."

Of course!

Yet another "revision" of what we thought we already knew.

DC

Patrick Henry:

There was a "peer-reviewed" Penn State article published in Science this month, where the authors reported that Greenland melt water had a surprisingly small effect on lubricating the ice sheet.

Surface-melt-enhanced basal lubrication has been invoked previously as a feedback that would hasten the Greenland Ice Sheet's demise in a warming climate. Our results show that several fast-flowing outlet glaciers, including Jakobshavn Isbrae, are relatively insensitive to this process. . . .
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/reprint/320/5874/301.pdf

Svetlana did do a nice job cherry-picking a tide gauge however. The worldwide average shows no change in the rate of sea-level rise over the last 100 years.
http://www.globalwarmingart.com/images/thumb/0/0f/Recent_Sea_Level_Rise.png/700px-Recent_Sea_Level_Rise.png

Junk science at it's worst.


D Caldwell:

Just what is this new, more accurate method?

DC

Nathan:

That study and article are nothing more than liberal propaganda, trying to scare the people out of their minds based on complete nonsense.

Dave Andrews:

Interesting that in the New Scientist article, Jevrejeva says "72 million Chinese people and 10% of the Vietnamese population WILL be displaced"

No mention of the fact that they could take measures over the coming century to adapt and mitigate the consequences (even if the model is correct)!

Patrick Henry:

More words of wisdom from Nobel Laureate Al Gore.

The entire North Polar ice cap is melting and could be gone in some areas in as little as five years.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/special_events/green_week/article1065876.ece

Given that we are headed into summer, I'm guessing that it will be "gone in some areas" as early as tomorrow.

Mr. Gore demonstrates his vast intellectual prowess and integrity once again.

kevinag:

So along with the gentle swish of the butterfly's wing we also have the slow drip-drip-drip of the melting glaciers. Good luck and keep on denying,

Gary Gulrud:

Notice where the data ends.

I predict just as the CO2 trend has stalled this winter, the same thing will happen to sea levels as measured by satellite in a few years.

Then the conventional wisdom will be that ocean temperatures were responsible for much of last century's rise due to thermal expansion.

ted:

Another article brought to you by funds from the NERC (Natural Environment Research Council) who promise to be “impartial, independent, and innovative!”
“NERC spends about �40m each year on climate change research. Our scientists are world-leading authorities on this issue, and advise the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, recognised worldwide as the definitive source for climate change information.”
Gordon Conway the Chief Scientific Adviser for UK’s Department for International Development embodies the definition of impartial with this statement,
"Environmental issues will dominate the 21st century. I think the climate change issue is every bit as serious as the press make it out to be and I will say this, the issues you write about in NERC's Planet Earth are absolutely crucial for the future of the planet."

How about we label the Y-axis for scale, accuracy, and ability to understand what they are trying to prove. Gibberish is not science.
Spending that money on clean water, and disease control will make a difference. Spending millions on nonsense will not save the impoverished.
Need anybody say more?

Josh Brenneman:

It seems as though the rapid rise in the from melting sea ice.
Reply: What else would the sea level rise from?
It rose 2cm in the 18th century and 6cm in the 19th century.
Reply: Why was ice melting back then, I thought I caused the ice to melt.
Going to raise a meter by the year 2100.
Reply: It better start soon or it is never going to make it in time.
Most scientist agree.........
Reply: Who are most scientist?
It won't be a uniform sea level rise.
Reply: I guess the water is on a seek and destroy mission attacking defensless land and people.

Folks at University of Colorado making preditions about sea level rise -- hillarious!

Seriously, anybody with wikipedia level of subject knowledge would immediately point out that
1. Most of the projected sea level rise is attributed to thermal expansion. Spelling "thermal expansion" is probably too much to ask of media article. Then, ARGO network failed to register any increase in water temperatures, therefore, it is likely that contribution to sea rise is never going to materialize.
2. Everybody know that Antarctica temperatures fail to conform to global warming predictions as well. The best warmers can do is to post some lame excuse "yes we (and our models) know this" (ref realclimate.org)

Given that neither source really explains sea rise in the 20th century, the phenomenon remains a mystery. But then one may ask: was there indeed a sea rise. Sea level is very difficult to actually masure!

John M:

"the more rapid movement of ice sheets due to melt water (lubrication) which could greatly speed up their disappearance and boost sea levels."

Or not.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/04/080417142507.htm

Don't you love it when the science is settled?

Ranger Chris:

What a bunch of luddites y'all are. Go ahead and tell the people of Tuvalu, Kiribati, and the Maldives that the sea isn't rising. Just search "Tuvalu evacuation" to see what I'm talking about. Only by threat of calamity has an entire nation ever willfully abandoned ancestral homes.

You argue that the Earth's temperatures and CO2 levels rise and fall naturally, so why not also the sea? Archeologists frequently find entire towns drowned by rapidly changing sea levels. The Black Sea is a fascinating example, often associated with Noah. The facts remain that the sea level WILL change, oil WILL run out, human beings WILL outgrow the arable land and potable water available to us. How many angels can dance on the head of a pin? Go ahead and keep staring at your bellybuttons.

Y2K was a scare that didn't happen. Sea levels are NOT going to fall. This is real. In addition to your attacks on the science, could y'all suggest some positive direction? What do we do with Tuvalu?

SteveP:

Hey,I got it.Maybe the sea level is not rising and the land is sinking.

Kricki:

I am assuming that all those that are believers do not currently nor will they be living in harms way. So Al Gore is perched high on a mountain top, right?

So maybe, perhaps, could be, quite possibly, this study is factually correct. I most especially love the use of "a lot" to add support to any evidence.

What is especially annoying is that only looking back a few years, those studies seemed flawed and yet currently the experts are certain they finally have it right. So were the people deceived back then, or were those same experts certain their information was correct as they are now?

I still am skeptical.

Bob:

This is a joke. There is no way that scientists are going to know what is going to happen in 100 years no less 20 years.

Where Is My Global Warming?

Patrick Henry:

Current Melting Of Greenland's Ice Mimicks 1920s-1940s Event

ScienceDaily (Dec. 13, 2007) - Two researchers here spent months scouring through old expedition logs and reports, and reviewing 70-year-old maps and photos before making a surprising discovery: They found that the effects of the current warming and melting of Greenland's glaciers that has alarmed the world's climate scientists occurred in the decades following an abrupt warming in the 1920s.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/12/071210094332.htm

Patrick Henry:

Some extremely bad news for people making their living from promoting climate alarmism. PDO is entering it's cool phase.

ScienceDaily (Apr. 22, 2008)
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/04/080421195005.htm

"This multi-year Pacific Decadal Oscillation 'cool' trend can intensify La Nina or diminish El Nino impacts around the Pacific basin," said Bill Patzert, an oceanographer and climatologist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. "The persistence of this large-scale pattern tells us there is much more than an isolated La Nina occurring in the Pacific Ocean."


jockalatta:

This completely lacks credibility. Did they actually have the capability to accurately measure and document sea level on a global scale in the seventeenth century. I seriously doubt this. More junk which requires more funding.

Marie:

The IPCC's work is having it's first direct effects on the planet.

Biofuels starving our people, leaders tell UN
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/apr/22/biofuel.crisis

Environmental Groups Condemn IPCC Call For Large Scale Biofuels
http://www.commondreams.org/news2007/0504-11.htm

Rick Ressler:

"It seems that rapid rise in the 20th century is from melting ice sheets." Not a very confident or convincing statement to make when you are challenging the methodology used by the IPCC and others to predict sea level rise. Why don't these "scientists" simply say, "We don't know."

On an interesting note: It spite of the media blitz promoting catastrophic AGW, Americans aren't buying it. The latest ABC News poll (4-13-08) found that when people were asked, "Thinking ahead to the November presidential election, what is the single most important issue in your choice for president?"

Global warming scored 0 which means that less 0.5% of respondents think it is the most important issue. Here is the link: http://bp3.blogger.com/_0oNRupXJ4-A/SAiwWqvP1tI/AAAAAAAAATY/DWP1iTrVHpM/s1600-h/Picture+9.png

Another very interesting poll from Gallup showed very little change in American's view of global warming over the last two decades. Here is the link to Gallup's video presentation:
http://www.gallup.com/video/106600/Global-Warming-Worries-Static-Over-Time.aspx

It will be interesting to see if Al Gore's $300 million scare campaign attracts any more disciples.

george n:

My BS meter is flashing red! OMG! Wait...I thopught water volume expands when it turns to ice? So if the ice of the Artic ocean melts sea leavel should drop a wee bit! The bulk of Arctic Ice is Sea Ice...and therefore it is already in the world ocean...can't make more ocean rise when it is already in the ocean. Greanland Ice melt and recent winters of vast snowfalls and remarkables winter recovery argues against Greenlands Ice Sheet from going away anytime soon. Regardless, Vikings had vibrant comunities in Greenland that failed when ICE returned. I say jets stream variability has alot to bear on this. As for Antarctica, Patrick Henry has done a fine job illustrating the truely amazing sea ice maxima (and minima) having obliterated the propaganda that the Antarctic is melting catastrophically. We are being lied to and this is political junk science to propagate AGW policies to regulate us common folk to groveling slaves. We should all hold our breath 30 minutes a day to do our parts to curb CO2 emissions! Ba ha ha ha ha ha!

Patrick Cyclonebuster:

Simply put my "TUNNEL" idea prevents this from occuring.Computer modeling will prove this!

Rick Ressler:

Ranger Chris:
Using conditions on Tuvalu as evidence of man-made CO2 induced global warming is absurd. Tuvalu is barely above sea level and islanders regularly excavate beach sand for use in contruction on the island thus causing beach erosion which appears as rising sea levels.

According to recorded data, "sea level has actually fallen four inches around Tuvalu since 1993 when the hundred-million dollar international TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite project record began."

"An environmental official of Tuvalu, Elisala Pita, is concerned with the alarmism of western eco-imperialists. In an interview in the Canadian Globe and Mail on November 24, Pita says that, "This [coastal] erosion is caused by man-made infrastructure. Tuvalu is being used for the issue of climate change. People are telling all these lies, just using Tuvalu to prove their point."

Here is a link to the full article:
http://www.pacificmagazine.net/issue/2002/02/01/is-tuvalu-really-sinking

Hey Ranger Chris - I think Elisala Pita branded you an "eco-imperialist." I would suggest traveling under an assumed name if you ever plan on visiting Tuvalu.

Josh Brenneman:

Ranger Chris, take a chill pill and quit believing the worst and Y2K did happen, it happened at 12:00 A.M on January 1, 2000.

RICH:

Ranger Chris says,

"What do we do with Tuvalu?"

Reply: Ummm, nothing?

Oh, I'm sorry Chris. Are the Maldives and others threatened with NATURALLY occurring disasters?

Well hey, take a freakin number!!!! Obviously I have to remind you that you live in a country with the worst NATURAL disasters in the world. Hurricanes, nor'easters, blizzards, tornados, earthquakes, droughts, fires, floods, heatwaves, arctic blasts, etc, etc, etc.

What is the rest of the world going to do to help with our NATURAL disasters, hmmm?? Should we demand world compensation for these disasters that happen...NATURALLY? Remember New Orleans? Let's go world - pay up. You OWE America for that one.

So Ranger thinks we should have to pay for our NATURAL disasters as well as everyone elses.

Welcome to reality. Do us all a favor and pull your head out of the earth, would ya?

Veets:

Patrick Cycolnebuster, no one here is going to model your tunnels, no one here wants to here your spam posts anymore about your tunnels.

If you really want to get rich and save the world with your tunnels, spamming these threads with your extremely rudimentary idea is not going to advance that goal.

Computer models can show your tunnels as the best thing ever, or they can show things as leading to the world's demise. You do not have near enough info to actually computer model anything yet. Quit barking up the wrong tree, it i