Researchers at the University of Oxford's Environmental Change Institute say that superficial and simplistic tabloid coverage and limited depth in reporting had contributed to a "significant divergence from the scientific consensus that humans contribute to climate change", according to the Guardian article.

Overall, the percentage of coverage that was deemed to accurately represent the scientific consensus on climate change ranged from 67-83% during the study period from 2000-2006. Only 1.8% of tabloid coverage was written by specialist correspondents, according to the research team.

Quality press has been generally accurate, according to the Oxford researchers, when it comes to the topic of climate change, but UK tabloids have a far wider readership with greater public influence. (note the readership tables in the study pdf.)

When interviewees were asked to comment on this divergence (between the quality press and tabloids), many pointed to constraints they faced as journalists and editors deriving from various politicaleconomic pressures, such as covering a broad range of news 'beats' with little specialist training and understanding,

"There is a really deliberately contrarian tone to threads, and though this is part of the irony and cynicism - to the extent that this influences the public understanding and perception it is detrimental," said co-author Max Boykoff.

Do you think the "quality press" in the U.S. has accurately represented the scientific consensus? I know many will argue that there is no real scientific consensus.

Do you notice this trend with any of the the U.S. tabloids? I really can't say, since I pretty much avoid them. Anyway, there is more than enough tabloid news now on the television.

By the way, What does Britney Spears think about global warming? Now that's the ultimate question!

Katie Fehlinger of Headline Earth shows us how families in Nepal are using their own biogas plants to improve their livelyhoods.

Over the past week we have heard all the stories about the recent demise of global warming or the idea that global warming will be taking an extended vacation before returning. Late last year, we heard that Arctic summers could be ice-free by 2013, but now we have heard that there is the chance that could happen as early as this summer. Who do you believe? I remain skeptical with a lot of these studies, either pro-warming or not, but I keep an open mind when I read these reports, knowing that some of these predictions could indeed end up having the right idea. We just do not really know for sure yet since there are so many variables to consider when you are talking climate, never mind a 5-day forecast. Anyway, here is a listing, along with links to some of the more noteworthy climate change predictions over the past several years. You can see how ideas change over a period of time as scientists try to gain more information.

"If there's one thing we know about science, it changes, it evolves, it's counterintuitive, and we learn things we didn't expect before." From Roger Pielke Jr, science policy specialist from the University of Colorado.

This "small" sampling is in no particular order..........

5/1/08....Next decade may see no warming due to changes in ocean currents. link

4/30/08....Warming to level off through 2014 mostly due to ENSO then surge thereafter. link Note: this is the same story as the one on the bottom.

4/28/08....We could reach the global warming tipping point within 2-3 decades. link

11/15/07.....Climate change accelerating, scientists warn. link.

01/03/08.....2008 will be one of the top ten warmest globally since 1850. link.

12/07/07......Rising CO2 will lead to wetter storms in the northern hemisphere. link.

12/21/07....More than 400 scientists cast doubt that man-made global warming threatens the planet. link.

01/23/08....Warming oceans reducing the # of landfalling U.S. Hurricanes. link.

03/04/08........Famous hurricane forecaster predicts global cooling in 10 years. link.

04/23/08.......Prepare for an ice age. link.

02/12/08......Sea level rise could be twice as high as current projections. link.

08/31/07.......Global warming will bring violent storms and tornadoes. link.

03/27/08.......Expect more warming of extreme temperatures. link.

07/25/07....Huge sea level rises are coming unless we act now! link.

10/3/07.....Earth will only heat up 8/10 of a degree over the next 100 years and the sun is the
major driver of this increase. link.

08/10/07.......Global warming will speed up after 2009. link.

04/30/08........Global warming will stop until at least 2015. link.

04/29/08.......PDO flip could mean cooler times for the West Coast. link.

05/19/03....New model predicts greater 21st century warming. link.

10/01/03....Solar contribution to global warming predicted to decrease. link.

09/16/06.....Scientists predict solar downturn, global cooling. link.

03/20/03..... Sun's Output Increasing in Possible Trend Fueling Global Warming. link.

11/06/97......Brightening sun is warming earth. link.

04/14/08....Warming will mean fewer, but more powerful tropical cyclones. link.

08/26/06....Russian scientist predicts global cooling in coming decades then a warmer interval. link.

04/29/07.....Humans are to blame for global warming. Easrth will warm 3.2 to 7.1 F by 2100 with sea level increase of 7 to 23 inches, according to IPCC. link.

05/11/07.....Eastern U.S. will face severe heat by 2080. link.

01/31/07....Sydney, Australia will see a 9 degree celsius increase in temp. by 2070. link.

08/13/07.....Expect CONTINUED warming over the next 10 years. (UK Met office). link.

04/27/08....Ten-year forecasts produced by the Met Office Hadley Centre CAPTURE this LEVELLING of global temperatures in the middle of this decade. From the article "Is global warming all over?" link.

Note: The above doesn't seem to jive with what they (UK Met) said in August of 2007 (see second paragraph from the bottom).

Anyway, I know there were a lot more predictions that put out there, but it has been a long day and I am tired. Good night.

Siberian permafrost and shallow lakes.

The Chicago Tribune ran a good article Monday about a Russian scientist who is studying the release of greenhouse gases, especially methane from the thawing permafrost underneath Siberian Lakes.

Methane, a greenhouse gas that is 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide, has been coming out from the ice like small geysers, according to Sergei Zimov, a long-time Russian scientist who has been doing much of the research in the cold, inhospitable region of northern Russia.

"Sometimes a big explosion happens, because the gas comes out like a bomb," Zimov said. "There are a million lakes like this in northern Siberia." The concern from Zimov and some U.S. scientists is that this thawing of the permafrost could accelerate global warming.

Sergei Zimov's outdoor lab is a large area of tundra and larch forest along the East Siberian Sea. Many of his collegues in Russia are not concerned about global warming, but Zimov's lonely work (28 years worth) has certainly drawn the attention from the U.S. as some of his work has been published in American Science Journals. Today, millions of dollars in grants from the West and from the Russian Science Foundation have turned Zimov's station into a hive of science. Zimov also has been receiving funding for his work through the Soros Foundation-Russia.

In Siberia, permafrost contains billions of tons of organic matter from the Ice Age. As the climate warms, permafrost on the banks of Siberian lakes collapses into the water, supplying bacteria with more organic material to consume and further raising the level of methane released into the air. This is a good example of positive feedback.

Zimov believes that the melting can be slowed, but not stopped. He has reintroduced certain grasses and herbivores which dominated northern Siberian steppes over 10,000 years ago. Zimov believes that steppe terrain inhibits permafrost thaw because it retains less heat than forests and lakes.

Fellow meteorologist and South American weather expert Jim Andrews showed me these unbelievable photos (my favorite is the second one) of the Chaiten volcano eruption down in southern Chili. I saw some great shots yesterday, but these just blew me away. You can see the large ash cloud and the glow of the volcano, then you have all this lightning. This is not unusual during an eruption and we saw some of this with Mt. St. Helen in Washington back in 1980.

The volcano began erupting on Friday with a 12-mile high plume. Many areas downwind, including parts of Argentina were covered with ash.

Large volcanic eruptions can easily influence the world's climate (cooling) for a period of time, causing a decrease in solar energy reaching the earth, as the tiny particles of ash remain in the high atmosphere and reflect the sunlight. I talked with Jim, who is also well versed in geology and geography, and he also feels that this particular eruption will probably be too small in size to have a large scale impact on the climate. The far southern location might also argue against it as well. Keep in mind, this eruption is still very new and neither of us are experts when it comes to volcanic eruptions, so our quick opinions could easily be out to lunch.

Jim Andrews also takes a close look at the volcano in his blog.

By the way, I had another post all lined up for today, but this particular server was down all afternoon and I couldn't do a thing with this blog. The volcano story was a quick one to post. I will get to the comments later this afternoon.

The Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station overlooking the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

A new study, published in the Geophysical Research letters by scientists from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the Ohio State University shows that computer analyses of global climate have consistently overstated the warming in Antarctica, according to the ScienceDaily article.

The group found that observed Antarctica temperatures rose only by 0.4 F (0.2 C) over the past century, while the climate models simulated increases of 1.4 F (0.75 C). The computer models may have overestimated the amount of water vapor in the Antarctic atmosphere.

"This is showing us that, over the past century, most of Antarctica has not undergone the fairly dramatic warming that has affected the rest of the globe," according to NCAR scientist Andrew Monaghan, as they can now compare computer simulations with observations of actual climate trends in Antarctica over the past 50-100 years. The computer models are accurately simulating climate for the other six continents, according to the study.

One reason why the continent has not warmed that much is due to the ozone hole over Antarctica, which is cooling the middle and upper atmosphere and altering wind patterns in a way which keeps relatively warm air from reaching the ground. Here is a neat movie of the ozone hole through March of 2008, courtesy of the British Antarctic Survey.

The research team believes that this new information about the warming of Antarctica could reduce the IPCC's estimated sea-level rise of 7-23 inches over the next century by two inches.

On a much lighter note............

The Daily Mail (yea, I know it's a British tabloid) had a "shocking" post the other day (thanks Laura!) about the climate change hypocrisy of certain famous celebrities. Just looking at their list I would say that Mr. Travolta is the worst offender of the bunch (a boeing 707 and a private runway. Are you kidding me!). Leo and Charles probably could have been left off the list. Sorry folks, Al Gore did not qualify. Here is the link to the story by Tom Sykes.

Congratulations Paul!

Paul Yeager, who is a forecaster and managing editor of AccuWeather.com has on several occasions graciously filled in for me on this blog just just released his first book Literally, the Best Language Book Ever. The book is a compilation and analysis of words, phrases and expressions that we should never use again. Paul has more about his book right here on his AccuWeather.com blog. Here is the link to Paul's book on Amazon.com.

Sorry Paul, I did not mean to lump you with the "high" journalistic quality of the Daily Mail, just bad timing. LOL.

Several U.S. economists have concluded that high gasoline prices could lead to a dramatic reduction in U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, according to a New Scientist release. How so?

--High gas prices are turning consumers away from gas guzzling trucks and SUVs and toward more fuel-efficient vehicles that burn less fuel and produce fewer emissions.

--Drivers are also cutting back on driving to save money. (count me as one of those!)

According to Chris Knittel, an economist at the University of California Davis, the impact will be dramatic, reducing carbon dioxide emissions by tens of millions of tons per year.

Knittel estimates that over about a decade, these changes in buying habits could cut the amount of gasoline used by U.S. drivers by around 7% for every $1 dollar increase in it's price. Something to consider, especially since some Wall Street analysts recently suggested that the cost of a barrel of crude oil could reach the $150 to $200 in the very near future!

I like the last part of the release.........

It is also possible that politics will intervene before any of these effects has a chance to kick in. Presidential hopefuls John McCain and Hillary Clinton have reacted to consumer protests over soaring fuel prices by declaring that they would suspend federal gasoline taxes. "It's a fantastically stupid idea," says Roberton Williams, an economist at the University of Texas at Austin.

"But people don't like high gas taxes, so it's popular."

Update: crude oil up to $126 a barrel as of Friday evening. Ouch!

Image courtesy of Wikipedia.

I remember doing a post last year about the surprisingly high amount of methane (greenhouse gas) that is being expelled by cattle in the UK. Well, scientists in Australia and New Zealand have developed a new type of grass that will cut the amount of methane cows burp up when chewing the cud. The new grass can also grow in hotter climates.

This means that farmers should be able to maintain dairy herds’ productivity and profitability in the face of a changing climate, while cutting down their gaseous burps and reducing their contribution to global warming, according to the Science Daily report.

According to the IPCC, methane makes up 14.5% of humanity's contribution to global warming. Also, NOAA data, which I just recently blogged about, shows that atmospheric methane levels may be rising again after a 10-year period of stability.

In the UK alone, methane from cattle could account for as much as 3% of the country's total greenhouse gas emissions.

But.........

This new grass, which is more digestible, could actually increase a cow's absolute methane emissions, since according to Alistair Macrae, a lecturer in farm animal health and production a diet too rich in highly digestible carbs can actually increase the amount of methane a cow belches out. However, productivity gains would actually mean less methane per unit of milk, says Ian Givens, an animal science professor.

Observation.........

By the way, it's May 12th and it was snowing on my drive into work this morning, here in central Pennsylvania. Reports of an inch of slushy snow nearby. Hopefully, this brief comeback of winter will take out some of those horrible gypsy moth caterpillars which seem to be taking over this region. Last year was bad, but from what I am seeing this year it will probably be the worst outbreak in memory.

Kind of a slow day today in the global warming department. Most of what is out there the past couple of days is about John McCain and his stance on global warming, which we covered in the past and will do so again later this year as we get close to the general election. Anyway, I figure today is as good as any day to check out some of the latest global temperature anomalies.

Here is the link to the latest Remote Sensing Systems MSU global temperature anomaly for the month of April. Note: You NEED to click the Anomaly button at the top to see the anomalies for April. I have not seen the GISS data yet.

The biggest things that stick out on this map are.....

1. Strong positive (warm) anomalies over eastern Europe.
2. Strong negative (cold) anomalies over the northwestern U.S. and western Canada.
3. Strong negative anomaly over eastern Australia.
4. Strong positive anomaly over the northern/northwestern Pacific, which is one of the signatures of a switch to the cool phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

Time to compare the latest global sea-surface temperature anomaly as of May 12th with the one from last year at around the same time in May.

May 12th, 2008

1. Note the strong negative (cool) anomalies from south of Alaska down along the West Coast of the U.S. (Again, this is another signature of a cool phase PDO.) I suspect we may see cooler and wetter-than-normal conditions across the Pacific Northwest into the Fall if this holds.

2. Eastern Atlantic waters (Cape Verde Hurricane development area) are slightly warmer than normal, but the Caribbean is slightly cooler than normal.

3. Strong positive anomalies in the waters around northern Europe.

4. La Nina continues to slowly fade. Most of the negative anomalies are now out into the central equatorial Pacific, while the eastern equatorial Pacific,close to South America is close to normal now.

5. Much of the Indian Ocean is slightly cooler than normal.

Below is May 13th, 2007......

1. Note the narrow band of strong negative (cool) anomalies extending west from South America along the equator.

2. Most of the North Pacific was not to far from normal a year ago.

3. The Indian Ocean was close to normal.