The Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station overlooking the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

A new study, published in the Geophysical Research letters by scientists from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the Ohio State University shows that computer analyses of global climate have consistently overstated the warming in Antarctica, according to the ScienceDaily article.

The group found that observed Antarctica temperatures rose only by 0.4 F (0.2 C) over the past century, while the climate models simulated increases of 1.4 F (0.75 C). The computer models may have overestimated the amount of water vapor in the Antarctic atmosphere.

"This is showing us that, over the past century, most of Antarctica has not undergone the fairly dramatic warming that has affected the rest of the globe," according to NCAR scientist Andrew Monaghan, as they can now compare computer simulations with observations of actual climate trends in Antarctica over the past 50-100 years. The computer models are accurately simulating climate for the other six continents, according to the study.

One reason why the continent has not warmed that much is due to the ozone hole over Antarctica, which is cooling the middle and upper atmosphere and altering wind patterns in a way which keeps relatively warm air from reaching the ground. Here is a neat movie of the ozone hole through March of 2008, courtesy of the British Antarctic Survey.

The research team believes that this new information about the warming of Antarctica could reduce the IPCC's estimated sea-level rise of 7-23 inches over the next century by two inches.