Chaiten Eruption Unlikely to Influence Global Climate
On May 2nd, 2008 the Chaiten Volcano, located in southern Chile erupted, sending a cloud of ash high into the sky. Here is another collection of amazing pictures.
The first image below shows the total aerosols (ash and sulfates combined) that were put into the atmosphere by the eruption.
The second image below shows the part of the plume made up of just sulphur dioxide, which in some past eruptions, such as Pinatubo in 1991, ended up circling the globe and combined with water vapor to form a screen that shielded the earth's surface for more than a year. This ended up lowering the average global temperature by 0.5 degrees celsius.
The second image, according to NASA shows that the Chaiten eruption put out relatively little sulphur dioxide, as most of the aerosols in the plume were ash. Based on this information, NASA scientists conclude that the Chaiten eruption is unlikely to have an effect on global temperatures. As fellow forecaster Jim Andrews and myself mentioned in an earlier blog, the far south location of the eruption would also limit any influence on global climate. Most of the volcanoes that have greatly influenced global climate are located much closer to the equator.



Comments (48)
The headline could have read "NASA scientists unlikely to understand global climate." They have no idea why the earth has been cooling the last ten years, and no clue what it will do the next ten years.
1984 has arrived.
Every adult in Britain should be forced to carry 'carbon ration cards'
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1021983/Every-adult-Britain-forced-carry-carbon-ration-cards-say-MPs.html
Posted by Patrick Henry | May 28, 2008 1:03 AM
Just for Travis and his former state climatologist - who dared to suggest that Cascades snow pack is not declining. SNOQUALMIE at 347% of normal snow today.
http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/snotelanom/snotelbasin
Four of the ten heaviest snow years in Washington have occurred during the last decade. More evidence that AGW politics is driven by misinformed, superstitious and dangerous people.
Posted by Patrick Henry | May 28, 2008 1:29 AM
As it is relatively close to the Antarctic, could such an erruption lead to there being further cooling of the Antarctic climate?
Posted by Greg Jenkins | May 28, 2008 5:25 AM
Ya could have fooled me!
7:47 a.m. EDT May (again, emphasis on MAY) 28, 2008...Current Temperature 47 DEGREES F!
THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS GLO-BULL WARMING!!!!!!
p.s. So much for that big warm up (gee, 2 whole days) during the last week of May, eh Brett?....Je Me Sovien, Mon Ami!
Reply: Just wait till Friday Oiz. That should make you happy. June also looks warm in PIT.
Posted by Oiznop | May 28, 2008 7:49 AM
Probably a good thing that impact is minimal. With both oceans going to cold phase and sun at rest this could have been a major tipping point towards extremely cold weather for the globe. Still believe it is to early to say it won't contribute as I understand it is still spewing.
Posted by Bob | May 28, 2008 8:21 AM
I've searched the web, I cannot find any mention of how much C02 the volcano has spewed thus far.
Does anyone know? Reply: No, I do not.
Comparitively, how much C02 is being released anthropogenically during the same time period?
Posted by alan k | May 28, 2008 9:52 AM
If the global climate with all its feedback mechanisms is as sensitive to certain forcings as the alarmists claim, why didn't Pinatubo's cooling effect push us into a little ice age?
Posted by D Caldwell | May 28, 2008 10:57 AM
UN Panel Gives Dire Warming Forecast
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/WireStory?id=3880952&page=2
"We have already committed the world to sea level rise," the panel's chairman, Rajendra Pachauri, said. But if the Greenland ice sheet melts, the scientists said, they could not predict by how many feet the seas will rise, drowning coastal cities.
Doh, Homer - Sea level has risen by 300 feet over the last 15,000 years, and has continued to rise at a much slower steady rate over the last few hundred years. Must be due to Mammoth flatulence.
Climate change is here, they said, as witnessed by melting snow and glaciers, higher average temperatures and rising sea levels.
Snowpack in the Rockies is at 130-220% of normal. The Cascades are as much as 340% of normal. Northern hemisphere snowpack set an all-time record this year. Temperatures have been declining for 10 years, and are expected to decline for at least another decade.
Remarkable that people so completely clueless can get jobs outside of the Springfield Nuclear Power Plant.
Posted by Patrick Henry | May 28, 2008 12:01 PM
Quite amazing that we can detect such small quantities of SO2 and H2SO4 and cannot use similar technology to measure how much CO2 is contributing to GW.
Anyone else find this odd?
Anyone else know about the Clean Development Mechanism FRAUD sponsored by the UN?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/may/26/climatechange.greenpolitics
This has been around for years. The Chinese, obviously a developing country even though they boast having more people living at Western Standards than the US, have profited heavily from CFC production because they artificially increased their production in the early 90's because they new the CDM was coming about.
So they increased production 10's of times higher than demand so they could get paid later to reduce their production.
AGW is SCAM.
Posted by GW Steve | May 28, 2008 2:28 PM
Brett,
Please tell us what we need to do to get a public debate scheduled. AccuWeather, while it may take a hit initially from the AGW Movement (At least a bunch of Hot Air), will gain tremendously from getting the facts out. The AGW scare is nearing an end.
While everyone else is still clinging to a bad theory, AccuWeather can show how a level headed Mission Statement can be beneficial and wise in times of uncertainty.
And you can get your viewers and posters here to do the legwork for you all.
It is very easy to show that Data is adjusted to fit Theory rather than the other way around.
It is very easy to show that CO2's value in models is a guess that is derived from attributing an unknown source of warming to CO2. It just so happens that 1.4 W/m^2 (value attributed to CO2) is also equivalent to .1% of Current TSI.
NASA states that TSI has gone up by about .05% every decade since 1970. Odd how it goes down recently during the last decade and the planet cools even though CO2 levels went up.
We can show how much energy it would take to keep the planet from cooling a certain amount and apply that energy to CO2 and show that it is impossible for CO2 to absorb and emit IR energy from Earth to produce the reduction in Cooling without Air temps being several times (10's to 100's of degrees C) hotter than they are.
It is very easy to take Peer Reviewed Studies and conduct a Thorough Review to show the shortcomings that the AGW Peer's missed.
It is very easy to show all the SCAMS that are taking place to make money off of scaring dumb people and taxing others whether they are dumb or not.
AGW Advocates, if any of you have the stones/knowledge to publicly defend your AGW is caused by CO2 hypothesis then speak up, this is a chance to silence your critics.
Cbmclean, care to join? Your recent efforts in school certainly qualify you as a worthy opponent in my opinion.
In any event, let us know if you all (AccuWeather) are seriously pondering a debate. Otherwise I'll keep asking :)
Reply: Steve, I will mention your comment to my AccuWeather.com supervisor.
Thanks,
Steve
Posted by GW Steve | May 28, 2008 2:29 PM
Reply: Just wait till Friday Oiz. That should make you happy. June also looks warm in PIT.
REPLY REPLY: Like I said before, Brett. I will believe it when I believe it...:-DDDD..... Reply: Fair enough.
Still believe it is to early to say it won't contribute as I understand it is still spewing.
REPLY: That's not good. And brother, I hope you're wrong about that. Cauz Pinatubo ruined everything in the summer of 92. Brrrrrr. And probably in 93 in the Midwest too, with those floods. I hope that never happens again.
Posted by Oiznop | May 28, 2008 3:45 PM
And once again for PH: above average snowpacks and global warming are not mutually exclusive events.
Posted by Travis | May 28, 2008 3:56 PM
Oiznop,
"Je me sovien." I remember myself?
PatricK Henry,
Increased snowfall is not necessarily connected to below average temperatures. So why do you keep mentioning it. Were there prominent AGW advocates saying that the snow would disappear?
Posted by cbmclean | May 28, 2008 8:41 PM
PRESS CONFERANCE:
Media:Josh..Josh
Josh:One at a time, right there go ahead
Media: Do you feel this will have any affect on global temps?
Josh: Yes, historically volcanoes have. Alot of ash and sulphur have been put in the atmosphere and that cools us, last week a nut global warmer scientist had stated we need to put sulphur in the atmosphere to cool us and this does it naturally. So some global warmers believe him, well they should also believe then this could cool the earth, but won't want to admit it because there heart is set on this happening.
Media: What about the co2 it has put out?
Josh: First off Alan, Co2 is way overestimated in warmth, the earth atmosphere contains currently 0.?? of co2 while on Mars there atmosphere is 95% co2 and after all that temps on Mars have been something like -100 degrees, so with all that co2 it still is mighty cold there. Makes you think alittle..huh..There go ahead
Media: The report states that this will not affect the climate?
Josh: All my...like I previously have said this comes from people who like global warming. Right now with the way things have gone global cooling maybe should start to be of concern.
Media: Are you going to start a global cooling scam?
Josh: I could use the money, I could make a documentary on ice bergs flattening buildings, people freezing, crop failure, boats being flash froze in the oceans, I could walk through towns and paint an ice line mark..hmm. I'll have to think on this. Mr.Gore won't have nothing on me.
Media: Any solutions to the continuing gas price rises?
Josh: Yeh, like I state everytime.JUST DRILL and forget about the purple eyed 3 eared, 6 legged poka dotted leaping spider hopper. Guys its been a pleasure to bring you this valuable information. Please use it to improve your knowledge, thanks for a pleasant evening and till next time. So long.
Posted by Josh Brenneman | May 28, 2008 8:46 PM
It seems the same people who believe that automobiles,coal plants and airplanes cause global warming, just can't understand how something that is not man made can change the earth's climate.These people make me laugh!
Posted by Brian | May 28, 2008 9:05 PM
Four of the ten heaviest snow years in Washington have occurred during the last decade.
BTW PH, would you care to substantiate the above claim with a link? Also, does this claim reference snow depth, water content, or snow accumulation? There's a big difference between the three.
I know where you got the other one (Snoqualmie Pass is now 352% of normal). It references water content, not accumulation or depth. Note that the accumulation is right at normal for this time of year. Depth is above average because we have had a cooler-than-normal spring following pretty normal winter temperatures.
Posted by Travis | May 28, 2008 10:08 PM
alan K,
I am also curious about how much CO2 is involved in volcano eruptions. Apparently they vary quite a bit, depending what sort of geology they are venting through. If limestone gets involved the CO2 released likely is greater. (Think about vinegar on limestone, fizzing and producing CO2, and then replace vinegar with superheated steam containing sulfuric acid under pressure.)
I was recently reading about an eruption which might have "caused" the Dark Ages, greater even than Tambora, which blew the channel between Java and Sumatra, (as they originally were connected?) It seems such eruptions must inject a huge amount of CO2 into the atmosphere. It would be interesting to know how this amount compares to the amount humans produce, and also how the ecosystem handled it. Was there any CO2-caused warming (after the ash was washed from the atmosphere and stopped cooling?) Was there any acidification of the oceans?
If anyone has any good links to studies about this volcanic stuff, I'd greatly appreciate learning more. I'm a curious cat
Posted by Caleb | May 28, 2008 10:18 PM
Now this I've been wondering: If scientists said that Mt. St. Helens did more in ten minutes than humanity has done in a thousand years to influence the climate, what is the difference between that and what was done by the Chile Volcano? Was there something diff. about the two eruptions, like rock composition, ferocity, ash plume etc? I'd actually like to know. If you find anything interesting comparing the two, I'd love to read it!
-JC
Posted by James Caine | May 28, 2008 10:35 PM
Travis,
If precipitation is 100% of normal, but snowpack is 352% of normal, doesn't it suggest that the "normal" precipitation which ordinarily falls as rain has fallen as snow? And doesn't that in turn suggest it has been colder?
Or are you suggesting 352% of normal is "normal?"
I'm going to bed. Once you fellows start to twist numbers like this I'd say its time to call in Steve McIntyre.
Posted by Caleb | May 28, 2008 11:21 PM
Hi Travis,
Depth is above average because we have had a cooler-than-normal spring following pretty normal winter temperatures.
Sounds like you have reached a tipping point. No wonder they fired the state climatologist.
Our December and January snowfall totals combined were the highest since 1971, and April's was the highest since 1984. Check out the stats below to see just how unbelievable this season was.
http://www.summit-at-snoqualmie.com/info/winter/historic_snow.asp
Posted by Anonymous | May 29, 2008 12:25 AM
As Patrick Henry has so eloquently described, you who choose to look the other way must soon look into your own soul. This farce has gone far enough! Nearly every legitimate scientific source has shown the manmade warming theory just that, a theory! In fact, the evidence shows otherwise. Now one must understand that the global alarmists have an invested interest in the public believing this lie. The truth may in fact not be enough to overide their concerted effort to block the truth. Accuweather alone turns a blind eye to the facts! Emphamsizing ice melt stories etc when in fact ice is increasing. Reply: What type of ice and where Paul? OK Brett, go ahead and post this and debate its accuracy!
Posted by Paul Johnson | May 29, 2008 12:34 AM
So when are you going to become "up to date" and rename this blog? Global Warming is a proven falsehood.
Posted by Paul Johnson | May 29, 2008 12:47 AM
from a friend of the AGW modelers we now have this
http://rankexploits.com/musings/2008/the-88-month-trend-whether-you-like-it-or-not/
judge for yourselves LOL
Posted by Rex | May 29, 2008 1:23 AM
In response to the questions about how much carbon is emitted by volcanoes relative to anthropogenic contribution, I am attaching a web link that discusses past volcano impact:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/05/current-volcanic-activity-and-climate/
Here is a quote from that web link:
"One point that is also worth making is that although volcanoes release some CO2 into the atmosphere, this is completely negligible compared to anthropogenic emissions (about 0.15 Gt/year of carbon, compared to about 7 Gt/year of human related sources)."
7 Gt = 7 billion metric tons
Obviously volcanoes are not continuous sources of CO2 and the short-term rate of any individual volcano is larger than the annual rate would indicate. However, on a relative annual basis, total volcanic activity contributes about 2% of the total atmospheric carbon.
Brett, I sent this message around 7PM this evening that contained other material and links, but your filters must have eliminated it. I will send the second portion of my message in another posting.
Posted by Dennis Hlinka | May 29, 2008 1:30 AM
Hi cmbclean,
I live in the west and am quite certain that it was both very cold and snowy this winter.
The Washington State Climatologist was let go for disputing the Seattle Mayor's claim that the Cascades were dramatically losing snow. In 1999, the Oregon Cascades set the record for the most snow ever recorded on earth, and 2008 was not far behind.
Posted by Patrick Henry | May 29, 2008 1:46 AM
The following volcanic aerosol information and it effects in the atmosphere comes from the May 19, 2008 wunderground blog site:
"Above the tropics, the stratosphere's circulation features rising air, which pulls the sulfur-containing volcanic aerosols high into the stratosphere, where the upper-level winds circulate them all around the globe. These aerosol particles take a year or two to settle back down to earth, since there is no rain in the stratosphere to help remove them. However, if a major volcanic eruption occurs in the mid-latitudes or polar regions, the circulation of the stratosphere in those regio