AccuWeather.com
 Your Local Forecast  
Airport Search^
Airport Weather Forecast
X
 

Enter your airport code - See Common Codes
(example: BWI for Baltimore Washington Int.)

Radar Search^
Nexrad Radar Search
X
   

Enter your zip code
(example: 16801 for State College, PA)

Back to global warming center



Senior meteorologist with 18 years of experience at AccuWeather.
[ Bio ]

Visit the new AccuWeather.com Forums, where you can talk about all sorts of topics, including Climate Change, Current Weather, and more.

Headline: Earth
Headline: Earth™:
Katie Fehlinger hosts Headline: Earth, which takes an unbiased look at all sides of the global warming debate. The weekly show features the latest headlines related to global warming, along with interviews of prominent and newsworthy guests, including global warming legislation advocate and chairman of the Environment and Public Works Committee (EPW), Senator (D) Barbara Boxer of California and global warming skeptic and former EPW chairman, Senator (R) James Inhofe of Oklahoma. Visit Headline: Earth's video page to see any or all of Katie's videos.


May 2008
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
1 2 3
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
25 26 27 28 29 30 31
We'd like to hear your questions on global warming! You can send your questions here via email.

« Hypocrisy! | Main | New Grass could cut Methane in Burps »

May 9, 2008

Gas Prices got You Down? Look at the Bright Side


Several U.S. economists have concluded that high gasoline prices could lead to a dramatic reduction in U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, according to a New Scientist release. How so?

--High gas prices are turning consumers away from gas guzzling trucks and SUVs and toward more fuel-efficient vehicles that burn less fuel and produce fewer emissions.

--Drivers are also cutting back on driving to save money. (count me as one of those!)

According to Chris Knittel, an economist at the University of California Davis, the impact will be dramatic, reducing carbon dioxide emissions by tens of millions of tons per year.

Knittel estimates that over about a decade, these changes in buying habits could cut the amount of gasoline used by U.S. drivers by around 7% for every $1 dollar increase in it's price. Something to consider, especially since some Wall Street analysts recently suggested that the cost of a barrel of crude oil could reach the $150 to $200 in the very near future!

I like the last part of the release.........

It is also possible that politics will intervene before any of these effects has a chance to kick in. Presidential hopefuls John McCain and Hillary Clinton have reacted to consumer protests over soaring fuel prices by declaring that they would suspend federal gasoline taxes. "It's a fantastically stupid idea," says Roberton Williams, an economist at the University of Texas at Austin.

"But people don't like high gas taxes, so it's popular."


Update: crude oil up to $126 a barrel as of Friday evening. Ouch!

Share this:

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://global-warming.accuweather.com/blog/mt-tb.cgi/767

Comments (77)

PaulB:

Forget reducing GHG's ........... using less fuel will reduce pollution which will have an IMMEDIATE effect on our environment !

I agree with Roberton Williams. Somehow saving $2.70 ($0.18 X 15 gals)on a tank of gas which cost $60.00 (15 gals X $4.00)seems pretty useless.......If $2.70 is enough to make a difference in your budget, then you probably can't afford to buy a tank of gas !!

Geeez, people really don't think anymore, do they?

Darren:

I for one, would like to thank every liberal, greenie, and AGWer for single handedly producing these high fuel costs. For it is in their ever present desire to limit everything that we have to endure these prices.

Reply: I think you are stretching at the truth a bit there Darren. Here is the actual definition of liberal.

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/liberal

Some of their doings:

No refineries for 30 years, multiple gas formulations (with little provable benefit) (Oh by the way, that work like crap when the weather is cooler when it is supposed to be warmer), excessive regulation and no oil drilling by the US.

I know, let's tax the windfall profits of the oil companies. That's a great idea because everyone knows that companies pay ALL of THEIR TAXES right?

Adamant:

Well, it's not as if we didn't see this coming. Seems like our brains are better wired to deal with crises as they begin to unfold than anticipate them and make the needed changes before we're really hurting. We do have to hand it to our visionary leaders - they are no flip-floppers as they continue to chant their mantras of "drill ANWR" and "subsidize Exxon". Rescinding the gas tax makes equally good sense in the land of crumbling infrastructure.

Patrick Henry:

Why would a sharp, predictable rise in a commodity price get any intelligent person down?

I invested in some options of a Canadian natural gas company and they have been going up 5-10% a day. Another year like this and I might retire.

Oiznop:

DRILL FOR MORE OIL...OFF SHORE...IN ALASKA....ON OUR MAINLAND...DRILL NOW!!!!..HOW MANY TIMES TO I HAVE TO RANT????.....THESE POLITICIANS AND ENVIRO-WACKJOBS ARE FULL OF IT!!!!....DRILL NOW AND FORGET ABOUT THE FIDDLER CRAB AND THE PLIGHT OF THE ELK AND CARIBOU!!!!!

I am sorry Brett, but I have just about had it up to my arm pits with this green/enviro propaganda. (Reply: I don't see this article as propaganda. It is showing what the positive sides are with the high gas prices and certainly less SUVs on the road is one of them, and I know you are not a fan of the SUV Oiz.) This is not the bright side. This country (idiots in Washington, mostly liberals) needs to get it's priorities straight and it's not. Our reducing our driving is going to be a great inconvenience to people and a detriment on this economy. Because we will become more dependent on Government rather than ourselves to get to work. Oil is life blood. There isn't an energy source that comes close. And less driving it will have zero, I repeat (Mark and BT) ZERO impact on the climate! Just like suspending the gas tax this summer. Again, Zero Impact. That you can take to the bank with all of that money that is (supposedly) being saved.

Save America from the lunacy. DRILL FOR MORE OIL...YESTERDAY!!!!!

Aaron:

Who would have ever thought that capitalistic economics could reduce fuel consumption, and that new federal regulation would be unnecessary? What a concept. ECON 101

Also talking about raising CAFE standards in 2015. Fat lot of good that does anyone now. Good chance that by 2015 supply and demand may have rendered CAFE standards moot.


And I'm not sure it will take much of a debater to point out that lower gas taxes translates into more highway bridge colapses. This gas tax holiday is a non-starting, pure "D" example of pandering that has come up in this election cycle so far and all three of the participants knows it.

On the subject of politics/fuel/starvation (yes, they're all one topic)..... It'll be great fun to watch the candidates in Iowa and the other corn belt states this year. And the press. It's going to be really fun when people find out that the press has been party to the "success" of the ethanol movement when the facts suggest that it's no more practical than using old french fry oil that restaurants just give away for free. Yeah, it's free alright, until the government mandates it's use for everyone and shells out hundreds of millions in tax savings to mega ag to ramp up production. And then the price of corn goes through the roof and ..... well, you know the rest.

All the best

Aaron

Steven Podhaski:

I want to see all the trade going on between the oil countries stopped until the Oil prices come down.Or let all the countries that get oil from them start a war and take over the oil fields and let it be distributed at a fair price.This can not be let to go on.I am living like a hermit.I use to drive to my sisters house from Florida to Mass and stop along the way and see the sites as I went. Know I can not afford to drive anywhere.It will cost me over $800.00 in gas alone not counting food and lodging. I do not see her and I do not travel to Disney World no more.I can not imagine how any President is letting this happen.Besides the prices of everything going up and my retirement is not going up.If my Social Security goes up ,that triggers all the merchants to raise all there prices to get the few pennies they give us.This country stinks.

When I retired after 21 years in the service from the USMC and 17 1/2 years from General Dynamics, who in there wisdom laid of thousands before we had 20 years in. Plus Social Security retirement,I thought I was sitting pretty good as far as retirement goes.That was back in 1999 . Well hello and smell the damn roses , I am getting ready to go on food stamps.I do not have Cable or satellite TV .I do not have long distance calling.I had to give up smoking because I just could not afford it anymore.Know I do not go to bars because I can not afford it and they stink from cigarette smoke .I do not go fishing anymore ,which I loved to do. Play golf ,who can afford that. The only people that are traveling are the rich and famous and they do not give a damn how high the gas prices go and that is what is hurting this country.I use to be able to enjoy myself when I moved down here in Florida from Mass back in 1999. No more.Know I am a hermit living inside my house and the only time I drive is when I go to the store.I hope that the stock market crashes so all the rich people can enjoy life the way I do and I mean that. This country is out of control.

nick paulson:

All this global warming garbage is partly to blame for driving up energy prices and now, food prices. And I'm about sick to death of hearing "green" stories. I even heard the local news tonight telling me maybe I should treat mom to an organic meal for mother's day. Please!!!!! In case anyone also hasn't noticed, it cost a lot of money to go "green." I do what I can.

Kricki Kachmar:

Even if suspending the gas tax saved consumers a considerable amount, those that support the doom and gloom scenario would still not support any effort to help the millions of Americans struggling to pay for gas. It has been many years since I had to pool my change together to pay for my gas, but I still remember those days as if they were yesterday. I remember a time when I knew that after paying all my bills, that I would have about 30 dollars to play with each month. I lived frugally at that time and so there was absolutely no fluff in my budget. Back then I didn't have a credit card either and so when the money was gone there was only the piggy bank. If a person can't come up with the money to put gas in his/her car I doubt seriously they will have enough money to buy a car that gets better gas mileage.

Since only about 30 percent of the population believes the correlation between co2 and global warming, the other 70 percent may strike a revolt only looking at their immediate crisis and not something that might or might not happen some years from now. With the price of food skyrocketing, gas doing the same, it is very hard to feel warm and fuzzy about the green movement when the pay-off causes immediate pain with very few solutions.

Assuming gas prices remain high, everybody will have to figure out a way to adjust but those adjustments will be felt by all. The selection of the family car depends on the family. Many in our area own SUVs/trucks due to weather conditions. I remember many years ago when I moved to the midwest I owned a very comfortable highway car that I bought in SC. I loved that car, if one can love a car, but holy hanna it was the worst car in the world to have in the midwest. It was meant to stay in the south where they have mild winters and not be driven on snowy, icy roads. I have owned 4 wheel vehicles ever since and especially because I own a farm and have animals to transport. There will still be a need for these gas guzzling SUVs/trucks no matter the price of gas. I should again emphasize that I own a truck that is going on 9 yrs old and only has 53,000 miles on it.

I heard today that one of the big trucking companies is requiring their trucks to reduce speed by 5 miles mph. They have calculated the savings by doing so. I must laugh about all this. I can remember when 55 was the speed limit which suited me just fine, and then it became 65 or more for reasons I am not sure of, and now people want to volunteer to bring the speed back down.

The bottomline is that we shouldn't be wasting our money or energy source like we have been. The good times are over. The Sunday drive with the family should instead be replaced by a Sunday bike ride with the family. Everybody wins there.

Bill Jones:

There is no such thing as a greenhouse gas. Are Martians driving too much as well? Why has mars warmed up recently? It couldn't be something simple like the sun...after all, politicians cannot control or tax the sun. We will be heading into an ice age soon enough. I bet cell phones and blackberries cause climate change too, in fact I have a computer model showing how cell phone radiation will cause the planet to freeze to the equator in 2012 -- something must be done about it! Quick, give me some grant money!

anonymous:

a little off topic but i live in grand forks north dakota. its may 10 and its snowing. i was supposed to go fishing today (walleye opener) and its snowing. i hate global warming for making it snow.

Chris F:

Reduction in greenhouse gasses is irrelevant to the climate according to credible scientists so the only good thing is reduction in pollution, which is laudible in it's own right. The people can only be so stupid and it's obvious that high gas prices will take precedence over any fearmongering that we'll burn up and drown sometime in the future. Rising fuel prices are real and a fact hitting us here and now. A continually rising earth temperature is not possible and has been proven to vary constantly between warm and cold periods. Sane people will choose the warm periods every time without fail if given the choice.

Don't Panic:

According to the article,
* "sales of the least fuel-efficient cars, such as SUVs and pick-up trucks, fell by 13 per cent for every $1 per gallon increase in the price of gasoline."
* "for every $1 hike in gas prices there was a corresponding 17 per cent sales boost for the most efficient vehicles, such as compact cars and hybrids."
* "projected last year that the recent doubling in fuel prices would quickly lead to a 4 per cent drop in the total mileage covered on the roads."

To get better fuel economy you have to buy a new car. Not everyone can afford that. And someone else uses the old car. So the effect is diluted.

To drive less is easier said than done. Some people would have to move -- cities and suburbs are designed around the automobile. It's written in concrete.

The US has been in a gas-tax holiday for a long time; compare prices to those in Europe. Try a "world tax level" day, that might raise awareness.

This is a problem with near-term consquences, unlike global warming.

Without cheap oil, we would never have abolished slavery.

philw1776:

As a lukewarmist AGW skeptic, I don't care a great deal about limiting CO2, but I do care about limiting US dependence on Middle East petroleum. Clearly hybrids are the interim solution until we have plugin electrics sourced by nuclear, solar, et. al. Meanwhile, a fed gas tax suspension does exactly the wrong thing except to pander to voters conditioned to depend on pols for special group favors using other people's earnings.

D Caldwell:

Strong evidence that market-driven dynamics is the real driver in our energy use - not climate alarmism.

Regardless of global temperature or sea level, CO2 based energy policy and the idiocy of carbon trading and carbon taxes will fail and, as always, reality will ultimately prevail. Why?
If Congress (having lost their collective mind entirely) actually passes carbon reduction legislation with teeth, the U.S. will see a grim combination of much higher energy prices and frequent energy shortages. When that happens the U.S. voters will come to their senses and vote the scoundrels out. With Pelosi and her ilk out, we will return to a sensible energy policy based on market forces.

Personally, I'll be happy to put solar cells on my roof when they are economically competitive. I will also be very happy to drive a decent electric (when they are available at reasonable cost) that recharges every night on the domestically produced power grid. I'll be very happy, indeed, to cease sending $ overseas to the idiots who happen to have a lot of oil.

DC

RICH:

First of all they wouldn't cut gas taxes permanently. It'd be done in the short term to help invigorate economic growth.

Secondly, record PROFITS for big oil means record TAX revenue for the government. How exactly is cutting record taxes stupid? I didn't see Williams explain why.

People need to realize that government can be just-as-greedy as "evil" corporations.

It also sounds like the FREE MARKET is NATURALLY helping to correct a non-existant problem (co2). Obviously supplies are always going down and demand is always going up* especially as the population increases and countries develop. Do the math. People will have no choice but to find more efficient ways of getting around on a gallon of gasoline, and it has nothing to do with AGW!

I for one have a motorcycle. I am sure we will see more bikes on the road as the years go by. I am also noticing more of those Nano-type cars driving around.

Kipp Alpert:

Darren:
Why are you afraid to name the real men who caused this gas shortage and spike in groceries.It was two very dumb people. Your George Bush and Dick Cheney. Look at how they ruined our economy. They put a federal mandate on corn, to get more ethanol and look at the price of groceries. Bush didn't build one refinery or nuclear power plant. (Reply: I was not aware that the President could order the construction of nuclear plants or refinerys.) His deregulation of the banking Industry was brilliant. And you have the nerve to blame greenies,who didn't do a damn thing. We are in a recession, and you elected the guy who screwed us. Congratulations.
Paul B. GHG'S and pollution are not mutually exclusive. Or is this another liberal plot to start another war for oil.
KIPP

Steve Bloom:

It's been pointed out that the oil corporations and the oil-exporting countries have had every reason to lie about the looming shortfall in the supply of oil. Let's all recall that the same U.S. leadership that refused to believe this has also failed to act to deal with climate change. Of course, according to Patrick they're making him rich, so he'll want our continued support. Anyway, here's a little dose of reality:


Saudi King's Quiet Bombshell
By Steven Andrews & Randy Udall

Reprinted from the April 21, 2008 edition of Peak Oil Review, the weekly newsletter of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil, USA.

Eight oil industry experts give their views on
King Abdullah's 'keep 'em capped' announcement

On April 13, Reuters reported the following from Riyadh:

Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah said he had ordered some new oil discoveries left untapped to preserve oil wealth in the world's top exporter for future generations...

"When there were some new finds, I told them, 'no, leave it in the ground, with grace from god, our children need it'," King Abdullah aid...

Saudi production capacity stands at around 11.3 million bpd, and is scheduled to rise to 12.5 million bpd next year.

The King's remarks seem to confirm a statement made last year by Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi who, when asked "How high can your production go?" replied, "We'll get to 12.5 million barrels a day and then we'll see."

If the Saudi announcement was a bombshell, American nearly newspapers ignored it. We decided to canvass experts we respect to see what they thought. Excerpts follow:

Tom Petrie, vice president, Merrill Lynch:

"King Abdullah's quote speaks to the fast-emerging reality of what I call 'practical peak oil.' The Saudis and other exporters are placing a new emphasis on elongating the petroleum exploitation and depletion cycle. This stems from a growing awareness of the challenges of conventional resource maturity, as well as rising resource nationalism. This is likely to result in an earlier occurrence of global peak oil output than many consumers yet recognize."

Charles T. Maxwell, senior energy analyst, Weeden & Co:

"If Saudi Arabia's oil reserves are not going to be made available to the world in future years, beyond the expansion they have already signaled (to 12.5 million barrels/day), then the geologic oil supply constraints that we are feeling in many other parts of the world are going to close in on us earlier and more severely than we previously thought. It's a major change in policy. It's a powerful message. It makes the geologic message that much more decisive."

Chris Skrebowski, editor of Petroleum Review:

"King Abdullah's statement represents the final seal of approval on an emerging Saudi policy of restricting output to save oil for future generations. In recent years the Saudis have been managing expectations of future capacity steadily downwards. No one now talks of their reaching 15mn b/d. If they reach 12.5mn b/d, while maintaining 1-2mn b/d of 'spare' capacity, we should plan for Saudi production to be 9-11mn b/d for the foreseeable future.

"High oil prices and bulging treasuries are giving producing countries the option of maximizing plateau production. We may never know if these decisions are being dictated by geology or driven by a political imperative of 'saving oil for later generations.' I suspect it's a mixture of the two.

"In any case, there is now a broad-based move by energy exporters, including Russia, Angola, Azerbaijan, and Norway, to restrict expansion to maximize plateau flows. If this takes hold, then global supplies will reach a peak rather earlier than analysis of future projects would indicate."

Matt Simmons, chairman of Simmons & Co. International:

"This statement by the Supreme Ruler of Saudi Arabia has far-reaching implications. That King Addullah would now instruct his servants to conserve the oil they pump and save some for the kids and grandkids of today's Saudi citizens is most profound.

"King Abdullah has exhibited a sense of wisdom not seen since his brother, King Faisal ruled the Kingdom until his tragic assassination. Assuming his health continues, he might lead Saudi Arabia successfully into a post-peak world and create sustainable middle class wealth for the 90% of Saudi Arabia who had accidentally been left behind.

"The world should bless this intelligent pronouncement. It is a reflection that Twilight set in on the oilfields of Arabia a few years ago."

Richard Nehring, president of Nerhingdatabase.com

"This development is part of what I've called the 'Prudential Plateau.' Some key countries with large reserves and resources have decided to maintain production at current levels-but not increase it. This is a two-edged sword: you can no longer count on these countries for increases, but you can count on them for the base. The United Arab Emirates and Qatar will probably join in this shift."

Jeffrey Rubin, chief economist, CIBC World markets

"A far more plausible explanation for faltering growth in Saudi production and exports is that they are rapidly approaching maximum production. Given soaring rates of internal consumption for oil, they will soon be exporting less not more crude to world oil markets.

"Russian Natural Resource Minister Yuri Trutnev's has said that Russian production and exports will fall this year, for the first time in a decade. We forecast that exports from OPEC, Russia and Mexico will actually decline by 2.5 million barrels per day between now and 2012. It's far from obvious who is going to fill this supply gap, let alone meet the need of future global crude demand growth." Jeremy Gilbert, BP's retired chief petroleum engineer

"I have no idea whether there was a real choice for the Saudis to make. Perhaps it's all 'spin'; perhaps there were discoveries, but there was some property of the reservoirs which made them very difficult to develop, and it made sense to delay development until improved technology or much higher prices arrived; perhaps it's the plain basic truth - a very rare commodity.

"What I do know is that several countries in the Gulf have long chosen to operate their fields withdepletion rates far below those that a Western company would consider optimal, or even sensible. Depletion rates of between 1 and 2%/ per year are not uncommon in the United Arab Emirates. Local leaders have repeatedly said that they feel an obligation to preserve some of their natural resources. These feelings must be intensified when their recent production has been sold for US dollars which have depreciated by 25% or more against other strong world currencies over the last four years.

"The countries around the Gulf, which would once have come to the aid of a faltering U.S., now are either delighted about the U.S. plight or just don't care. They are not going to do anything to reduce world oil prices. Instead, they are going to maximize their economic take while minimizing depletion of their sole natural resource."

Herman Franssen, president of International Energy Associates

"King Abdullah's remarks reflect the new thinking in the Middle East, where the Kuwaiti parliament has also expressed a need to stabilize oil exports. Higher oil prices enable producers to focus more on domestic investments than on increasing exports. All Gulf countries have seen huge growth in domestic demand for power and fuel. By 2015, Iran may consume as much of its crude oil as they export. The King's remarks mean that we in the industrialized countries better start looking for other solutions."

Kipp Alpert:

Listen to the pathetic cries and outlandish statements about the Greenies,the liberals,the enviro-wacko's. Well Oiznup,and PaulB. You can't have your cake and eat it too. Your elected people, that ruined our economy,built no nuclear plants or refineries, started a war with the second greatest oil producing nation, and let them keep the oil. You voted for a war that is unsustainable, killing hundreds of thousand of young patriots, against a power that had nothing to do with nine-eleven. You let your greed get in the way of human evolution and regard for your home EARTH! I hope you enjoy every last penny you can squeeze out of your pocket for gas. Finally after all your rhetoric and hate filled slander you will pay big time! Yes! There is a God.
KIPP

saly:

All I can remember is them telling us that bio-fuel was not profitable as long as petroleum prices were so low.

And now, petroleum prices are high and bio-fuel is profitable.

Gee, how did that happen?

There must be a lot of traders that invested heavy in bio-fuel that are real happy right now.