A previous Jakarta flood.

I saw this story about a serious flooding situation setting up for Jakarta, Indonesia on MSNBC.com Thursday. According to the report, abnormally high astronomical high tides are expected Tuesday and Wednesday. This is an 18-year semi-annual tide cycle and is caused by the alignment and the closeness of the sun and moon.

The World Bank says this particular high tide period will be enhanced due to slowly rising seas from global warming, which will cause higher swells. More importantly, in my opinion, Jarkarta, which is the Capital, is sinking at an annual rate of two inches per year, mainly due to excessive ground water extraction. Over the past three decades Jakarta has sunk a total of seven feet! That cannot be good.

Officials predict homes as far as a mile inland will be impacted by the high tides. Previous exceptional high tides brought the water up to the rooftops in some areas.

I couldn't pass this one up........

NASA's own Inspector General has concluded that NASA studies on global warming between 2004 and 2006 were deliberately "marginalized; or mischaracterized" by political appointees in NASA's Office of Public Affairs (press office).

From the report via the USA Today article........

While we could not substantiate that Administration officials employed outside NASA approved or disapproved or edited specific news releases, we do, however, find by a preponderance of the evidence that the claims of inappropriate political interference made by the climate change scientists and career Public Affairs Officers were more persuasive than the arguments of the senior Public Affairs officials that their actions were due to the volume and poor quality of the draft news releases.

Climate change scientists and a majority of career public affairs officers strongly believe the alleged actions taken by senior NASA Headquarters Office of Public Affairs officials (those political appointees) intended to portray NASA in a light most favorable to administration policies at the expence of reporting unfiltered research results. Those same political appointees deny those actions.

The IG report also found no evidence that senior NASA officials directed the Office of Public Affairs to minimize information regarding climate change.

Here is the link to the full IG investigative report.

Maybe Dr. Hansen will have something to say about this in the near future.

Arctic sea ice coverage May 2008, courtesy of the NSIDC.

The National Snow and Ice Data Center has just released their latest update (month of May) on the sea ice situation up in the Arctic. Here are some of the main highlights from their report.....

Arctic sea-ice situation

--Sea ice extent is below the long-term average.
--Sea ice extent is very close to the low levels seen in May 2007. (May 2008 extent was 0.11 million sq. miles greater than May 2007).
--Spring ice cover is thin.
--The average decline rate this May was 3000 sq. miles per day faster than May 2007.
--The average Arctic Ocean surface air temperatures in May were 1 to 3 degrees celsius (2 to 5 degrees F) above normal.
--Thin ice that covers the Arctic Ocean is showing signs of early breakup.
--There is a distinct lack of thick, resilient multi-year ice, but the thin ice is farther north than normal, which may make it less vunerable than if it was in its normal position.

Also, one particular scientist from my alma mater (Rutgers U.) has linked an increase in springtime clouds and water vapor over the Arctic during the past three decades to the retreat of the ice edge northwest of Alaska in the spring (clouds and water vapor act like a blanket). In the summer, this would have the opposite effect.

USDA led report says that we may see more pictures like this in the near future.

The United States Climate Change Science Program, lead by the USDA released their final report, which is titled " The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources and Biodiversity in the U.S." last week.

The peer-reviewed (I knew some of you wanted to hear that) report written by 38 authors from Universities, national Labs, non-gov't and government organizations stated that climate change is already impacting many U.S. resources. Here is a quick summary, courtesy of the USDA news release.

--Growing season on average across the temperate zones of the U.S. has increased 10-14 days over the last 19 years.

--Grain and oilseed crops mature more quickly, but are more prone to crop failure.

--Higher mortality of livestock during the hotter summers will offset the lower mortalities expected in the cold season.

--Lower productivity of livestock. (Higher milk prices?)

--More widespread fire and insect damage to forests.

--Weeds will grow more rapidly (might want to invest in Chemlawn!) and will migrate northward.

--Trend toward reduced mountain snowpack and earlier runoff. (Not the case this year out West).

--Invasion of exotic grasses into more arid regions.

If you want to read the full report (full pot of coffee needed!)........

Here is the link to the full USDA report (several pdf's).

The carbon cycle

I remember blogging about something similar to this last year, but the subject has come up again...........

Scientists have devised a new type of CO2 scrubber that will capture one ton of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the air every day, but it will take two years to contruct the prototype, so don't get too excited yet!

Also, as you may have already guessed, it is going to take an awful lot of these devices to have any type of measurable impact globally, so we are talking millions.

Physicist Klaus Lackner from Columbia University, says that the CO2 could be removed from the atmosphere by absorbing it in various chemical filters and using a newly discovered property of absorbent plastic sheets, which would be used to clean those filters so they can be reused. The captured CO2 would then be pumped into greenhouses to enhance plant growth, according to the Telegraph article.

"I’d rather have a technology that allows us to use fossil fuels without destroying the planet, because people are going to use them anyway", said Lackner.

By the way, there are other types of scrubbers already available on the market. If you would like to purchase one for your backyard you can get it here. It will only cost $5457.67. Shipping not included. Oh, you also need to purchase an initial supply of CO2 absorbent material for $80.

Headline Earth's Katie Fehlinger shows you how Seattle, Washington is taking major steps to lower it's greenhouse gas emissions.

The sun is still showing that blank face......

The current period of solar inactivity has now become unusually long in duration, according to some scientists at a recent international solar conference, which was held at Montana State University.

About 100 scientists attended the conference which focused on solar variability, earth's climate and space environment.

The solar cycle.........

The sun usually runs on an 11-year cycle, with maximum sunspot activity during the middle of the cycle and a minimum of activity as the cycles change. According to the MSU press release, periods of inactivity are normal for the sun, but the current period has gone on longer than usual, and scientists are not sure why and they do not know how long it will continue to be inactive.

The last cycle (#23) peaked in 2001 and is ending now, while the new cycle (#24) should peak around 2012.

Previously, some much longer periods of inactivity have coincided with global cooling.

The Maunder Minimum examined

Simulations by global climate models show that when sea ice is in rapid decline, the rate of predicted Arctic warming over land can more than triple. The image above at left shows simulated autumn temperature trends during periods of rapid sea-ice loss, which can last for 5 to 10 years. The accelerated warming signal (ranging from red to dark red) reaches nearly 1,000 miles inland. In contrast, the image at right shows the comparatively milder but still substantial warming rates associated with rising amounts of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere and moderate sea-ice retreat that is expected during the 21st century. Most other parts of the globe (in white) still experience warming, but at a lower rate of less than 1 degree Fahrenheit (0.5 Celsius) per decade. (Image and text credit to Steve Deyo at UCAR).

Periods rapid sea-ice loss could greatly accelerate the warming in the far north

A study by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and funded by the U.S. department of Energy and the National Science Foundation has determined that climate warming over Alaska and northern regions of Canada and Russia could more than triple during periods of rapid sea-ice loss. The rapid loss of sea-ice will also lead to an acceleration of permafrost thaw, which will release additional greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. It is believed that Arctic soils contain 30% or more of the world's carbon that is stored in soils.

The NCAR team performed simulations using the NCAR-based community climate system model. From to the UCAR press release........The team found that during episodes of rapid sea-ice loss, the rate of Arctic land warming is 3.5 times greater than the average 21st century warming rates predicted in global climate models. While this warming is largest over the ocean, the simulations suggest that it can penetrate as far as 900 miles inland. The simulations also indicate that the warming acceleration during such events is especially pronounced in autumn. The decade during which a rapid sea-ice loss event occurs could see autumn temperatures warm by as much as 9 degrees F (5 degrees C) along the Arctic coasts of Russia, Alaska, and Canada.

Here is the link to the latest northern hemispheric sea-ice area and anomaly from the
University of Illinois Polar Research Group.

The Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) website has a nice chunk of global temperature data on it, going back about 30 years. The RSS processes microwave data collected by satellite microwave sensors. RSS temperature data is one of several sources that are used to study global temperature data.

The first image below shows the RSS global temperature anomalies of the lower troposphere for May 2008. A couple of things that stick out........

--Note the warm anomaly just north of Labrador. This is most likely a reflection of the persistent blocking (upper level ridge of high pressure with relatively warmer air aloft) over the region during the month of May.

--After a moderate to strong La Nina (cooler-than-normal sea-surface temperatures along the equatorial Pacific), the ENSO has trended back closer to neutral.

--This same blocking high ended up forcing unusually cool air down into the Great Lakes region of the U.S. as its normal easterly escape route was blocked by that ridge just north of Labrador.

--Much of the southern hemisphere was close to or below normal for temperatures in May. This has been going on for quite a while now.

--Two pockets of notable warmth over Asia.

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Just for fun, let's go back exactly 10 years to May of 1998. The overall ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) phase at that time was trending toward neutral after many months of strong el nino conditions (well above-normal sea-surface temperatures along the equatorial Pacific).

--Note that much of the globe was near to well above-normal for temperatures that month. Very little blue, especially compared this past May.

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How about 20 years back (I was still having a great time at college) to May of 1988.......

--In May of 1988 the ENSO was entering a weak La Nina phase.
--Overall, the map looks fairly close to normal in many regions.

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Finally, Here is a neat image showing the RSS temperature anomalies going back to 1979, taking into account the full data from 70S latitude to 80N latitude......

--Note the significant warming in the mid-latitudes during late 1997 and into 1998. Much of that is probably a reflection of the strong El Nino.

--Notice the warm anomalies north of 40N latitude beginning in the late 1990s and continuing up to present time.

--Very recent cooling of the equatorial region and a large part of the southern hemisphere.

Acknowledgement

MSU data are produced by Remote Sensing Systems and sponsored by the NOAA Climate and Global Change Program. Data are available at www.remss.com.

Katie Fehlinger of Headline Earth takes you back to Seattle, Washington and shows you some of the eco-friendly local government buildings with help from Mayor Greg Nickels.

The National Climatic Data Center just released their global temperature data for May and also for meteorological spring/fall (March, April, May). Here is a summary.....

--May 2008 (combined land and ocean) was the eighth warmest on record.

--The Mar/Apr/May combined period was seventh warmest on record.

--May 2008 was cooler-than-average over eastern Australia and most of the northern
half of the continental U.S.

--Mean snow cover extent across the northern hemisphere during the spring of 2008 was below normal and the third least during the 1967-2008 period of record.

--Snow cover during the spring of 2008 in