The North Pole web cam from earlier today, courtesy of NOAA. Notice the standing pools of water (snow melt) with an outside temp of 5.5 celsius (42 F).

The same North Pole web cam 5 years ago to this day. The view is a little more zoomed in toward that upside-down L shaped pole in the distance.

As many of you already know, there has been a lot of talk in the media lately about the possibility of an ice-free North Pole this summer. Andrea Thompson, a senior writer from LiveScience dug a little deeper and phone interviewed Mark Serreze of the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center. Serreze was earlier quoted by a London paper that that in his opinion it was even-odds whether the North Pole melts out at the end of the melt season.

In the interview with Thompson, Serreze cleared up some of the confusion caused by some media outlets......

1. The potential melt-out at the North Pole would not mean that all Arctic Ice would melt, but that the thin, new ice around 90 degrees north could melt away for a few days.

2. This thin, first-year ice is more susceptible to melting this summer, compared to the thicker, older ice. A substantial amount of older ice melted last year.

3. Wind patterns and ocean currents over the last few months moved the newly formed ice over the North Pole, setting up this potential situation late this summer, but the North Pole is cooler than the lower Arctic latitudes, so it could resist melting.

4. Serreze is pretty certain that the region will lose a bunch of ice this summer, but the question of just exactly where that melt will occur is "a roll of the dice". One factor in determining these factors is the somewhat higher ice extent that re-froze this winter.

5. Serreze notes that a warm spring season has put melting about on par with where it was at this point last year.

Check out this link to the current status of the sea-ice area in the Arctic Basin from the University of Illinois Polar Research group. So far it does appear that the current sea-ice area status is very close to what it was last year at this time. Also note, that the ice area in the Arctic Basin last year saw its greatest drop between the second week of July and third week of August. We may get some clues starting in the next few weeks.

By the way, there are other scientists in this field that feel that this summer's melt will be less spectacular than last year's.

No doubt, we will all find out the real answer in September!