Forecasting the Future
Headline Earth's Katie Fehlinger is back this week and finds out why climate change bills are having a tough time getting through Congress. Katie also takes a look at the two presidential candidates proposals to combat climate change.



Comments (53)
People can say what they want, but rising CO2 levels have already changed the climate and will continue doing so for years to come even if emissions are stabilized.
Levels are higher than they have been for millions of years and it looks like the world is heading towards a climate that existed millions of years ago.
The only problem with that is that 6 Billion people didn't inhabit the earth back then. Instead it was a bunch of dinosaurs and every one should know what happened to them.
Look here to see what the trend has been in the NH sea ice:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.anom.jpg
The NH is where climate change will first become apparent due to the large extent of seasonal snow cover (SH doesn't have enough land mass).
Anyhow, good luck to all those people in Washington DC that like to argue and then do nothing.
Posted by Anonymous | July 11, 2008 2:13 PM
Right after they get done legislating the climate, they can take on imposing legal limits on gravity and sunspots.
And we thought the middle ages were stupid.
Posted by Patrick Henry | July 11, 2008 2:42 PM
Several weeks back when the senate took up the Lieberman-Warner cap and trade bill (later modified version known as the Boxer substitute) I watched every hour of the debate. When liberal 90 yr. old Robert Byrd, democrat from W Va. got on a wheel chair and left his hospital room and landed on the floor of the Senate and voted against even bringing the bill up for consideration Harry Reid (majority leader) got the message. Everything that followed was nothing more than rhetoric and showmanship. Lawmakers are finally waking up to the fact that climate change isn`t a high priority with their constiuents.
Posted by Jack Mclaughlin | July 11, 2008 3:29 PM
The future of Russia - wealth and power
At Friday's meeting, Putin said Russia's declining oil production meant the industry was at a "critical juncture" and proposed to cut taxes and slash bureaucracy to encourage new oil development in Arctic regions
"The Arctic zone is a guarantee of Russia's economic power. Oil, gas, gold, diamonds and phosphates -- it's all there," Artur Chilingarov, a member of parliament who is also an Arctic explorer, told AFP before the meeting.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=080711175151.j2k3z1z7&show_article=1
The future of America -
Doomed to a fatal delusion over climate change
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,23991257-25717,00.html
Posted by Patrick Henry | July 11, 2008 3:31 PM
Ms. Fehlinger says the difficulty in passing legislation "has nothing to do with the science" and all to do with the economic consequences. Technically this is correct, but there are many reputable scientists and legislators who question whether or not the science leads to the conclusion that we are headed toward climatic catastrophe if we do not agressively control carbon dioxide emissions. This is not quite the presentation of both sides.
Posted by A. Fucaloro | July 11, 2008 6:13 PM
I can't wait to see what President Obama and the Democratic Congress do about $5 per gallon gas next summer.
Posted by mrsund | July 11, 2008 9:21 PM
mrsund:
Something that GB hasn't done for the last eight years,think. U Tube has a great video of our leader,twirling and twirling around in his chair during a break in the action.At the G-8 summit. Maybe he thought that this was Grade school
and he was in day camp. President Obama will probably use diplomacy first, to heal the wounds from the Bush Fiasco. Than he will go to the middle east, and diffuse their anger towards us, leading to a reduction in Gas prices. At home he will get congress to initiate programs for alternate energy, as we are so far behind Europe.
All of his actions will renew the respect for our country that has been toosed out. Then perhaps he will lessen the economic crisis that most poor and middleclass prople are suffering through. Then he will have a glass of wine and get back to work! What a change it will be. He even believes in Global Warming. Very intellegent man.
KIPP
Posted by Kipp Alpert | July 11, 2008 10:41 PM
maybe they should put it up to $10 a gallon then take the balance of the money and buy electric cars for everyone!
Posted by paulm | July 11, 2008 11:32 PM
Hey Brett , I don't know if Katie reads the comments to her work on this Blog. But if she doesn't would you please pass a message on to her. Tell her "Thank You" for her weekly Headline Earth productions , they're muchly appreciated. And thanks to you as well for the nice work you do on this blog site. There are very few like it on the Web.Dave.
Reply: Thanks Dave, I will do that.
Posted by SAGWH | July 12, 2008 1:38 AM
Anon wrote: "People can say what they want, but rising CO2 levels have already changed the climate and will continue doing so for years to come even if emissions are stabilized.
Levels are higher than they have been for millions of years and it looks like the world is heading towards a climate that existed millions of years ago.
The only problem with that is that 6 Billion people didn't inhabit the earth back then. Instead it was a bunch of dinosaurs and every one should know what happened to them."
First, CO2 had nothing to do with the dino's demise. They lived on Earth with CO2 levels 500% to 700% higher than today. You're being disengenuous with your eco hysteria. IF and I contend it's if, IF we humans have raised CO2 some 10s of % or so there's a long way to go to reach the TYPICAL, NATURAL several times higher CO2 levels that Earth's environment itself creates.
So, let's wean ourselves off fossile fuels expeditiously for myriad reasons (national security, economy of the nation, possible far long term CO2 increases) but not so quickly that we crash the very economy that provides innovation money for wind, solar and 21st century nuclear alternatives.
Posted by philw1776 | July 12, 2008 10:20 AM
OSLO, Feb. 29 (Xinhua) -- The polar cap in the Arctic may well disappear this summer due to the global warming, Dr. Olav Orheim, head of the Norwegian International Polar Year Secretariat, said on Friday.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-03/01/content_7696460.htm
Posted by Patrick Henry | July 12, 2008 12:36 PM
Maybe y'all should try forecasting the past.
Posted by Larry Sheldon | July 12, 2008 12:57 PM
Kipp, how do you know what Barack Obama thinks??? He sure has you snowed and thus he is a good politician that has figured out that good speeches with nothing whatsoever to back it up are all that is needed to convince voters to believe in the next candidate. I mean really Kipp, does an intelligent man put his family on Access Hollywood??????? Are you joking???? That is trash t.v for heaven sakes. You have every right to judge Bush for his failures because they are out there to comment about, but to foolishly count on the next politician to save the day is a recipe for disaster.
This video from my perspective was short on substance. It did nothing for me and certainly didn't add anything to the debate. It was a fluff piece.
Posted by Kricki | July 12, 2008 1:49 PM
Jack Macgaugin:
CO2 is about 1/3 of one percent of air. Without CO2, the earth would be minus 18 C. Obviously CO2 is a powerful greenhouse gas.
The earth has gone through many cycles of warming and cooling. As CO2 levels shoot up, so do temperatures. Carbon is both removed from the air, and added to the air by nature.
As the earth warms, carbon sinks (like forests, the permafrost, or the sea floor) become carbon emitters big time. CO2 and methane flood the atmosphere and overwhelm the carbon eco-system. For instance, 55 million years ago a natural runaway global warming episode (nicknamed the PETM) caused mass extinctions. About 500 million years ago the global warming episode was so bad that most life died.
Mankind is triggering the same kind of severe runaway global warming episode by releasing tremendous amounts of greenhouse gas mainly by burning fossil fuels. Do we really want to trigger another "natural" episode of severe warming? Positive feedback loops (where a little warming causes carbon sinks to become carbon emitters, leading to larger warming) are not currently included in most climate models. Particularly, the melting of methane hydrate in permafrost and under the ocean. If you ever live long enough to make decisions like Byrd, then you will be the joke.
KIPP
Posted by Kipp Alpert | July 12, 2008 3:34 PM
1) I agree. Regardless of ones view of the science, the economics and potential uneven international application of "solutions" alone should make even an A-CO2-GW proponent give pause.
2) If I believed in the catastrophe of A-CO2-GW, I would conclude that the economic imbalance could create economic and national security catastrophes far outweighing climate changes and that we should focus on doing things that won't kill is in those areas.
3) We should:
a) Encourage energy efficiency (although, don't forget that the increasing price of energy does that on its own and the Gov't should only facilitate and not muck it up)
b) Review/update all laws/regs which could facilitate efficiency (ie. local zoning to allow for concentrated development, mass transit and others to reduce sprawl, telework, (I know there's a lot more..)
c) Drill in the U.S. immediately so we benefit our economy, which will provide the wealth we need to spend to encourage development of alternative energy sources (wind, solar, geo, wave, nuclear, clean coal/shale)
d) Use the energy independence "windfall" to develop long term adaptation strategies. Flooding of city areas could be a boom, because much of that infrastructure needs to be improved anyway. How about preparing large flat areas in advance of the sea level rise to act as engineered wetlands? Lots of ideas that each local area could develop and these great ideas should really inspire our young people to get into science, engineering, biology, climatology, architecture, community design (new discipline I just made up, but you read it here 1st), etc.
4) The problem I have is that I see no compelling evidence that A-CO2-GW is of any consequence. But, after thinking about (d) above, I think that I should start to follow the great lie and say A-CO2-GW is real and it's going to be even worse than we thought. Then our failing educational system will be kick started to inspire our young people to do something big because they will have to.
5) Damn if A-CO2-GW wasn't real, but the silver lining might be that we start the next ice age sooner and that will be the inspiration for the kids, but that seems more depressing.
Posted by Pete | July 12, 2008 3:37 PM
PhilW1772:
Why don't you study your science? There is no precedent for the quickness in current rise in CO2.280 ppm to 380 ppm in 150 years? And current estimates show 450 ppm in 50 years. Atlantic Upwelling, and salinity levels, is already negatively effected. There is no precedent for the quickness and severity of the current rise in CO2. Even with the meteor strike 65 million years ago. Have you read the IPCC reports? It�s not just business. Ecosystems lost 30%.Increase in hunger do to Dry regions.Deseases like malnutrition, cardio vascular due to ground level ozone. And if the water is not coming down the river from the mountains, agriculture is stressed, more floods and droughts. Welcome to your future.Wake up today!
KIPP
Posted by Anonymous | July 12, 2008 5:51 PM
Brett: This weeks topic and presentation by Katie was excellent. I think it has to do with relevancy, and how the world of climate change is being understood by people who can effect change.
Your moderating as usual has been overly fair, and if I didn't know better I would think that you believe in the guy upstairs. Or at least intellegent design. Only instead of ontology, our spirit is in our acts.Thanks, KIPP
Posted by Kipp Alpert | July 12, 2008 9:02 PM
Kipp,
When folks begin to think that a new President will change things, look back at all the other Presidents who promised this and that to win an election and then found out that they did not really run the show, when they got in there. Read this link. It puts it all into perspective.
http://www.newswithviews.com/Cuddy/dennis132.htm
Let us know what you think of the new President, in a couple of years.
Posted by John D. | July 12, 2008 11:13 PM
Kipp...you should address your concerns to Senator Byrd but first you should be sure your stats are accurate...as I understand the atmosphere is 78% nitrogen, 21% oxygen and about 1% argon with many trace gases including co2. I believe Your one third of 1 percent is way too high. Minus 18 degrees without co2? Can you or anyone else here guide me to the source of your information? Obviously, I can`t agree or disagree with you on what the climate was 55 and 500 million years ago.
Posted by Jack Mclaughlin | July 13, 2008 12:33 PM
Why are climate change bills are having a tough time getting through Congress?
Plain and simple, the answer is that Congress' approval rating is at what, 9%? These stupid touchee-feelee tree hugger polcies will just sink their approval ratings even further. Because they will harm an already tenuous economy. And, their constituants realize that YOU CAN'T CONTROL THE EARTHS CLIMATE OR THE WEATHER! It is the height of utter elitest arrogance to believe otherwise. The future President better realize this. Otherwise, either one may surpass Bush when it comes to disapproval! These people in Congress need to get their priorities straight and pass legislation that will allow for MORE OIL DRILLING!!!!! NOW!!!!!
DENY DENY DENY THE POLITICALLY MOTIVATED GLO-BULL WARMING LIE!!!!!!!
Posted by Oiznop | July 13, 2008 1:19 PM
I'm quite happy with my life and find a candidate who promises to "change things" quite disturbing.
Raise taxes? Make new restrictions on freedom? How does that make our lives better? Graham is right - many people are whiners who will probably get exactly what they ask for and deserve.
Posted by Patrick Henry | July 13, 2008 1:56 PM
Dear Kipp, Since this is a weather blog I will close with; Global Warming is mostly nonsense since all the facts are not being allowed into the debate. The fact that we have cooled recently which consistently goes unreported in the nightly propaganda report doesn't help your arguement any either. Paul
Posted by Paul johnson | July 13, 2008 3:31 PM
Jack M:Ice corps are gathered in Antarctica,Greenland,sedimnt layers. and mounatain tops.Using gas chromatography and mass spectrometry,dies and electricity, scientists can look back.An ice core from China 750000 years ago.
Just because Bush, who walks around like he is carrying watermelons under each arm, doesn't mean the next president will do nothing. The country is in a mood for change and the congress might be a little more functional.I work with conservative businessmen all the time and they really want this country to take advantage of new technologies and see a way of making money from this. They know that they will change. They are smarter then you think.
KIPP
Posted by Kipp Alpert | July 13, 2008 3:57 PM
Patrick:
Americans are not whiners and Grahmn was wrong for saying that. We are starting to feel a gas shortage. Because of biofuels, the price of groceries are on the rise. Sally May is going bottom up, because we neglected our banking
practices, and we have at war in Iraq and Afghanistan. We are in a recession, and the only good news is that Global Warming hasn't started in it's full glory.
OIZNUP:
Did you ever believe that there was a hole in the ozone layer? Or was that GLO BULL HOLINESS!!!!
KIPP
Posted by Anonymous | July 13, 2008 7:17 PM
KIPP:
What part of the world so you live in?
Seriously, are you up in the mountains and suffer from O2 depravation?
IN order of your July 13 post:
There is no gas shortage.
Food is going up as much due to the cost of shipping as from biofuel production. And UMMM....AGWers see biofuels as the savior of the world. Are you saying that AGWers are for driving up food prices?
Sally May who is she and why is she bottoms up? Do you mean Fannie Mae? It is going belly up because changes that liberals DEMANDED be made in the credit loan process.
Yep, someone is finally doing something about bad people across the planet. Remember, they started it. Unprovoked.
We're not in recession. We are in a slowdown, globally brought about by high fuel prices created in part by liberal, tree-hugging policies limiting drilling and refining. Reply: Do you have proof of that Darren?
Global warming will not be in full glory because it frankly is a made up thing top satisfy an agenda.
Sure there was a hole but who cares?
Posted by Darren | July 13, 2008 11:13 PM
Wow, those tree-hugging Dems started this whole ban on off-shore drilling eh Oiznop? That crazy democrat George H.W. Bush and his stupid ban... oh wait he was a Repub!
Domestic Drilling is not the solution. It won't make a dent. The main reason this congress has such a low approval rating is because of gas prices, guess what? It is not just their fault. They are just shouldering their blame, so their approval rating means little as they are being blamed for something that has been long in the making.
There is no evidence that domestic drilling will have an immediate or even near future effecto n prices.
Obama will not fix this crisis and I say that as being a person who is more than likely going to vote for him. You want to ta