A Record Sea Ice Minimum is Unlikely
The Arctic has now reached the peak of the summer melt season and scientists now predict that the 2008 sea ice extent will most likely not break the record low minimum set in 2007, but it will still end up well-below normal with a minimum sea-ice extent less than 2005, which right now stands as the second lowest extent on record.
The latest graph of the Arctic sea ice extent, courtesy of the NSIDC. Note: there has been a more sharp drop over the past several days. It will be interesting to see if that trend continues.
Scientists now give the chances of a new record sea-ice extent minimum being set in 2008 at 8%, according to the ScienceDaily article. But, a lot of the sea ice is still quite weak and thin and and a sudden, rapid melt off over the next month still cannot be totally ruled out.
The Graph below shows the latest Arctic sea ice extent forecast from the NSIDC on July 30th. Remember, this forecast was issued right before the latest downturn is sea ice extent.
The future of sea ice extent and thickness greatly depends on the weather (wind, clouds and air temperature) and scientists are studying these factors and utilizing new computer models to better predict the eventual outcome of the sea ice in the Arctic over the coming years.
