Cooler 2008, Blame it on La Nina
I saw this article a few days ago from the BBC. The article " World heading towards cooler 2008" talks about how temperatures the first half of this have run about 0.1 degrees Celsius cooler than any year this century. Why is that?
Well, scientists from the UK Met office say that the main reason for this cooling is La Nina. If you do not know, La Nina is the cool phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is the unusual cooling of the sea surface water out in the equatorial Pacific.
But for those who are rooting for an ice age, don't get too excited. La Nina has faded for now and the ENSO is fairly neutral, so global temperatures will be rising again, according to Met office scientists.
Even though 2008 may indeed end up as the coolest year this century, the century is only eight years old and 2008 is predicted by the UK Met to be about the 10th warmest on record since 1850.
The article also mentioned the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and how some scientists earlier this year predicted that the current phase would hold temperatures in check for the next decade followed by renewed warming as the oscillation reverses.
Here is the latest update on the current status of the ENSO.
The graph below shows the latest model ENSO forecasts through early 2009. The consensus seems to go with near-neutral conditions into next spring.
