Brett: You mention in your post that "there has been a more sharp drop over the past several days. It will be interesting to see if that trend continues." It certainly will be interesting -- in fact it will break the 2007 record if it continues for another couple of weeks. (reply: yes, I would say that is right) Do you have any idea what accounts for the accelerated decline? (Reply: No, I have not looked into it.) If so, would we have any reason to believe the trend might continue?

Most of us flat-earthers disputed the ridiculous claims of an ice-free arctic this summer. Steve Bloom, remember? (Reply: All I heard was that there was a possibility of an ice-free pole over the next 5-10 years and possibibly as early as this year. I also heard a 50% chance, but never anything saying it was most likely going to happen this summer.)

Not only will there NOT be an ice-free summer arctic, it doesn't look like the record minimum will be reached. Judging by the projected mean, we are looking at potentially 1.75 million more square km compared to 2007. The poor polar bears. Here is another good site on the arctic sea ice extent going back to 2002.

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

BTW, Maui sets COLD record:

http://www.mauinews.com/page/content.detail/id/506834.html?nav=10

With the AO heading towards positive range, we can see a return toward more normals or below normal temps in areas. So I am fairly certain that the melt will slow down significantly over the next week.

It is all just a matter of time.

With CO2 levels constantly rising, global temperatures will continue to follow and record minimum arctic sea ice will be established every few years.

That is not to say that every year will be a record, but the trend is clear enough.

What will probably push sea ice over the edge will be the next El Nino. As some may realize, the last years weather has been dominated by the exact reverse; La Nina, that is significant cooling of the Pacific. However, we know that El Ninos and La Ninas go thru cycles of every 5 to 8 years. So, when El Nino returns, as it is expected within the next 2 to 3 years, there will be very significant warming and this coulpled with higher CO2 levels and thinner sea ice to begin with will push the artic to the next record minimum.

That's not to say, we need El Nino to establish a record minimum (since there was no El Nino in 2007), but just the El Nino will provide such an extra warming that the sea ice extent may reach the so called tipping point that is feared to trigger even more significant climate changes than what we've aleady witnessed.

Very interesting running commentary of the Sea Ice situation in the comments section of:
http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3336

Andrew, thanks for the pessimism. However, you neglect to mention a few things:

Published studies showing 2007 anomalous in terms of AO, whereby much of the massive sea ice loss was due to it being pushed out to sea.

Published studies showing albedo figures significantly in snow melt rates, specifically referring to the amount of atmospheric "black" carbon.

Published studies showing that though the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation is currently in the warm phase, that will change over time, thereby affecting temperatures, melt rates in the far North Atlantic regions.

Yeah the Arctic ice is definitely weak sauce compared to 20 years ago.

One day, who knows...it'll probably be like hardened steel again.

At least I don't live on the fragile ice.

I'm sure the polar bears are smart enough to figure that one out...and if not, then they get the darwin award...just like people who live in coastal areas expected to be flooded by AGW.

The strong melt over the past week or two has been attributed to southerly winds coming off land.

Lets not forget that not 2yrs ago we were talking about the melt in 80yrs...then it was 30yrs now it looks like it may be in 5-10yrs. It wouldn't be a surprise if it did melt next year or the year after.

Last year's minimum wasn't due to El Nino or warm temperatures. It was due to unusual winds that blew the ice cross the Arctic much faster than normal. Temperatures are no warmer in the Arctic now than they were 70 years ago.

Until the smart people at NSIDC get a clue about this, they are going to keep embarrassing themselves.

Man, that's too bad. I was hoping to do some surfing up there this September.

Seriously, the MEIs for the Pacific have been very El Nino-esque this decade. Until recently, one could say El Nino and the Walker Circulation have induced a fair amount of warm ocean circulations world-wide. What goes around comes around. And I wouldn't bet just yet on another El Nino anytime soon. There has been some scuttlebutt that another La Nina may form late next Spring. That wouldn't be surprising as the PDO has gone negative. If another La Nina developes, don't expect the trend of artic sea ice melt to continue. Nothing lasts forever.

interesting read Andrew i suppose we should wait and see,although the antarctic does not seem to have any respect at the moment for rising co2.if anything it seems to be making up for ice loss in the arctic, as global sea ice over the last 30 years seems fairly steady.im not trying to be smart,but it is puzzling given predictions of warming showing up at the poles first.maybe the antarctic is next?

Question from a lurker...

So it looks like the record is two standard deviations from climatology.

Can any of you statistic savvy folks help me understand the significance of that?

Thanks.

"It is all just a matter of time."

Yes it is. Pretty unfortunate that the TIME period goes back to only 1979 when the latest warming trend started (the end of a 30-40 year cooling period). Can anyone provide the extent of the ice from 1938 through the cooling trend? I'm sure the answer is no, other than anecdotal evidence from ships logs or diaries.

It's not really much surprise that ice is at a minimum, when you essentially start from a maximum. IMO, this is too short a time period to extract any meaningful trend.

Most AGW skeptics aren't skeptical that it's gotten warmer, just skeptical about the amount of warming is attributed to man-made CO2.

kipp correct me if im wrong but i thought i read a post from you about the california fires which occurred late june early july-you remarked or someone else did that satellite photos of the smoke showed it moving out into the pacific and then streaming north to the arctic-if this is the case then could this ash settling on the arctic cause the faster melt experienced lately as was the case of the experiment in the midwest we wer shown earlier.

Andrew: RSS MSU and UAH MSU provide subsets of their data so that you can download and plot Arctic, Northern Hemisphere, and Global temperature anomalies side by side, from the start of the data sets to present. Please do so, picking either RSS or UAH, and mark up the graph to illustrate the CO2 component in the recent bout of Arctic warming. I'm interested in seeing the results.

Also, you discuss El Ninos, saying that a future El Nino will amplify the CO2 effect and cause more sea ice to melt. Do you know if there is a cumulative effect of El Ninos that is not countered by La Ninas? Did the 97/98 El Nino cause any step changes in global temperatures or in any of the subsets? If so, would that have contributed to the acceleration of Arctic sea ice loss?

Steve M: There's a long-term data set at the Cryosphere Today website. It's linked near the top of their main page. Anywhere else, I'd give you a link, but the spam filter here throws comments in the trash bin if it doesn't like the link. Sorry.

Reply: Bob, just let me know you posted a link, I will recover it if it was trashed by the filter. Brett

Andrew:
Good post. I have heard that the Enso could become stronger or more frequent as we get warmer. They say that even when the PDO is occurring, that the water in the mid Pacific stays warm. I am curious as to how the PDO,AMO,and Arctic oscillations will change while The world overall is changing.
As you said the tipping point is coming faster then we thought, and only God knows what methane in bogs, which has already begun to emit, and clathrates, will add to Global Warming. I think we should start rationing gas because we are in an energy crisis. Most "Americans" don't even want to talk about this.
Thanks;KIPP

At the site http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

page 28 shows that current predictions guess that neither a El Nino nor La Nina will form, but that the recovery from the recent La Nina will flatten out before achieving El Nino status.

page 24 is of interest. It shows that during the period 1949-1976 La Ninas often flattened out before achieving El Nino status, and that El Ninos were more rare, leading to cooler times.

Eventually this effected the icecap, and ice thickened, however Dr. Gray noted a link between the cooling and a fading warm-stage of the AMO. The fading warm-stage of the AMO tends to pool warm water in the NW Atlantic, which delays the cooling of the arctic.

Therefore you who are politically-minded should not expect much of a sign of arctic cooling before the election.

However Gray's work didn't include a failure of sunspot cycle 24 to manifest. A big chill could result. Unfortunately it will likely begin twenty-seven minutes after the polls close.

a/k/a Oiznop:

A 30-40 year cooling trend???...You mean I have to put up with this crappy weather and non-existant summers for another 30-40 years???? I will slit my wrists (much to the delight of our fradulant/cool weather loving/Al Gore worshiping/panic mongering/non-political/free thinking friends, I am sure).

And Gosh Whiz! Record ice melt unlikely. Well I'll be. Can't imagine why. Could it be because THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS GLO-BULL WARMING!?!?!?!?! I WANT MY SUMMER BACK!!!! NOW!!!!!! AAAAUUUUGGGGGHHHHH!!!!!!!!

(Forgive me Brett, but I am in white hot boiling anger this morning because it's 56 degrees outside (at 7:30 am) and I am in my office with a space heater turned on in the middle of August! And there are no warming trends, it appears, for the rest of this jip of a summer!!! I am sick of this!!!!).

Reply: I forgive you Oiznop. Stay warm!

Hey Oiznop, I'm probably about 1 1/2 southeast of you and here at 3 p.m after a passing shower we have a temp of 59.....started out at 49 this morning. Today is August 8th! A very fall like feel to the air today.

Reply: Josh, I am guessing you live in Somerset county, right on top of the Allegheny plateau.

From The Desk of The Denial Machine:

Speak for yourself, says James of 98 degree Colorado, who still thinks GW is BS as he has to tromp through three feet of snow in the midle of april to get to work

Looking at the graph of July RSS temperatures easily explains the differences in the sea ice coverage from last year.

The RSS temperatures for the far north latitudes (north of 60N) were 1.226C for July 2007 and 0.354C for July 2008. The July 2007 reading was the second highest peak of 1.256C for July 1998. Despite the drop in the July 2008 reading from last year, it is still the 10th highest July temperature over the 30-year period.

The overall 30-year RSS July temperature plot for the far north latitudes has been essentially nearly linear with an increase of 1.1C for the entire 30-year period. This still correlates well with the sea ice extent over the last 30 years:
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/n_plot_tmb.png

Speak for yourself, says James of 98 degree Colorado, who still thinks GW is BS as he has to tromp through three feet of snow in the midle of april to get to work.

REPLY: I feel your pain Brother (Gee, where have we heard that before?). I just wish I felt some of that warmth that you guys have had and we don't here anymore (like we used to) in the land of the lousiest weather in the U.S.& A.

Hey Oiznop, I'm probably about 1 1/2 southeast of you and here at 3 p.m after a passing shower we have a temp of 59.....started out at 49 this morning. Today is August 8th! A very fall like feel to the air today.

REPLY: Some (weak excuse for a) summer, eh Josh? I am telling you, if this is the trend for the next 20 years, I will leave the area (like many have in the past for more reasons other than the lousy weather here). Again, I am sick of this! I WANT MY SUMMER BACK!!!!!

Again off topic other than the fact that if there was an ocean here it wouldn't be long until sea ice formed, anyhow 42 degrees to start the morning with the afternoon in the upper 60's, feels like Steeler season already!

Caleb,
I went through the PP slides and I could not find any indication of a forecasted El Nino in 2009. Slide 28 shows Nino 3.4 and points east being neutral to a negative anomaly through Summer 2009.

Josh.The beggining of global warming and it's pattern is just what you and Oiznup are describing. Same weather for you, that I have experienced in Connecticut. The easiest way to explain theses anomalies is that Global Warming indicators are strange weather occurring but always increasing warmth. It is the same when spring becomes summer and and fall becomes winter. A lot of cold meeting hot weath