What's funny about all of this is that the sea ice is still significantly below average. Last year was a huge anomaly -- probably outside of 3 standard deviations. If we hadn't seen that extreme anomaly last year, we'd be talking about how this year's sea ice was shockingly below average.

AGW Deniers will now cherry-pick and start with 2007 and, for the next few years, proclaim how sea ice has been "growing" since 2007...LOL. They are so predictable.

FYI, Brett, concentration refers to coverage (area) rather than thickness.

Reply: Yes, you are correct, I made a boo boo

Considering that solar irradiation has been at an extended minimum and that there was a major La Nina (cooling along the equatorial pacific from upwelling of cold water), it is just amazing that we are as close to the record minimum sea ice concentration as we are.

This goes to show that global warming from the fantastically elevated CO2 levels in the atmosphere are continuing to keep temperatures much higher than average at a time when other natural variations (solar and ocean currents) should be able to push temperatures to way below normal. In other words CO2 is trumping all other natural cyclic variations even when they all line up together at the same time! Think about it.

Watch out for when the solar cycle and El Nino returns, we are bound to see all types of records set for minimum sea ice and global temperatures.

Also expect to see extreme precepitation events become increasingly common. Again, all from elevated CO2 levels.

Good thing the southern hemipshere doesn't have the land based seasonal snow that that north has. It's a powerful feedback mechanism that is amplyfying climate change in the northern hemisphere. If the south had the same feedback, then we'd be looking at sea levels rising that much faster than they already are.

Mark,

You are correct on saying that some will latch on to a extreme short term change in hope of avoiding guilt and its associated 'accountability'.

We all believe in silly things...some right, some wrong.

However, I doubt that you nor anyone else can, with 100% certainty...tell me the Arctic melting is only attributed by agw.

I believe that to be correct as well.

No need to put salt in the wound...you'll never have anyone agreeing with you if you continue that sort of persuasion by hubris you feel so good about.

Because it's no longer about the 'facts'...but instead...the ego and pride. You sinner!

Haha. ;o) Just playin'...man people are so bent outta shape over this stuff, it's like war.

Mark,
You are exactly right. That the sea ice is within 10% of the all time low with 3 or 4 weeks to minimum is very disturbing.

I am also concerned by the low level of sea ice on the Northeast coast of Greenland.

first of all mark its not funny,also im pleased with your prediction for an increase in ice over the next few years,as far as cherry picking is concerned i think 1979 until now ,is a very short time in climatology for agw-ists to use in promoting their somewhat fanatical agenda.talk about cherry picking?i think you guys must nearly have them all picked by now.

Mark makes a good point. A similar case is the global 'cooling trend' since 1998. The AGW camp uses this to prove that the world is 'cooling', even though it is still far warmer than the average.

Mark:
AGW Deniers will now cherry-pick and start with 2007 and, for the next few years, proclaim how sea ice has been "growing" since 2007...LOL. They are so predictable.""

You mean the exact opposite of what got us in this mess in the first place?

Who really decided what is "average" or "normal"?
Who decided where to draw that "normal" line?

Thank God the climate changes, we could still be stuck in the dust bowl of the 1930's and 40's.

mark,

your post reminds me of the griswol family vacation...first one here, first one here, first one to pontificate imminent doom!!!...its unfortunate you continue to use the AGW playbook, spinning the facts about historical arctic sea ice with words like HUGE, SHOCKINGLY, SIGNIFICANTLY whilst name calling skeptics DENIERS...i have a question for you bro...just exactly how do you reconcile that 2007 and its "3 standard deviations" (GASP) is not from a cherry picked time period of the last thirty years?....by the way, how do you account for the antarctic record extents for the same period when we are supposed to be in the middle of GLOBAL meltdown? shame, shame, mark!!!! may i suggest you read up on earth's geologic history and perhaps you may more fully appreciate the ebb and flow of historical ice extents and the context of how "2007" IS a cherry-picked time frame you seem so adamantly objected to...

Mark: 'Cherry picking'?? Sheesh! Ya gotta be kidding me. Try this for one:

'This is going to be catastrophic' - Farmers' Almanac says cold winter ahead...

http://news.mainetoday.com/updates/031815.html

And don't knock the Farmer's Almanac, it's every bit as good and accurate as the crystal ball 'models' you Hysterics swear by...:-) in fact, its track record is better don't ya think?

Mark,
Care to comment on recent trends of Antarctic sea ice?

http://global-warming.accuweather.com/2008/08/end_of_the_melt_season_is_near.html#comment-113521

Responding to Mark. This is probably due to the thin 1year old ice caused by the extreme melt of last year, remember? Alot of AGW are saying young ice are more susceptible to melting, if so, why are there still more ice this year than last year? Could it be the arctic is colder this year then the freak weather that produced last year's melt?

What you have to realize about Antarctica is that the sea ice extent in 2007 set a record for extent, not lack of ice. 2008, while less than 2007, is still well above the 20 year average.

Mark,

Sea ice in the Arctic is below the 1979 - 2000 average (I'm not sure why that particular period is used and the average is not the last 20 years). Antarctic ice extent is above average. Overall is about average to above average.

Mark: You claim that AGW skeptics are predictable. But AGW alarmists are equally, if not more, predictable in their transforming natural climate anomalies into bogus anthropogenically induced disasters. Two years ago it was a freak number of Atlantic hurricanes. That soon faded. Earlier this year it was the flooding in the Midwest. All's quiet on that front. Last year and this year it was Arctic ice extent... Well, that debate might last a bit longer.

If global temperatures continue to decline, high-latitude Northern Hemisphere and Arctic temperatures will drop as well, except at a higher rate, which is the basis for the term polar amplification. But since much of the sea ice decline has nothing to do with temperature, attributing future increases or decreases in sea ice extent to the proper causes will be just as difficult as it is today. That debate would most likely continue, regardless of the direction nature chooses.

No one can predict what natural variation AGW crusaders will latch onto next and wrongly elevate to catastrophe status. Rest assured, climate skeptics will find the realistic faults in any claims that have no basis in scientific fact, just as we do now.

Regards.

The alarmist said ice free Artic. Nope!!! It is not going to happen this year. First year ice did very well for such a very hot planet. Global warming is dead!!! Please pray for Global warming.

Mark, I'm pretty sure your side cherry-picks as well. Don't act like you don't. As I said in the climate change forum. The accuser is just as biased as the accused.

Mark: It's great to be predictable. You don' want to loose your job. You must conform to get ahead. Unless your company tells you to believe in warming! Wait! Am I in China. Sounds like commie behavior to me. Well, to bad people are made to believe in something because it is politically correct. I rather believe in what I find true. This is like Custards last stand, where all the deniers gather to find oil, in a shrinking concentric circle. Even Pat Boone Pickens sees the picture and he's 80. What an opportunity you young guys are giving up. Looks like the big money is on sustainables not exxon mobil. I guess there is a calling for plastic bags and walmart?
Just think small, and you will be rewarded. Just not in Heaven.
KIPP

Andrew,

"it is just amazing that we are as close to the record minimum sea ice concentration as we are."

Not when you consider 'why', which is, at least according to NASA a change in currents in the Arctic that brought warmer water further north than 'normal'. It had absolutely nothing to do with atmospheric temperature change. Considering that Antarctic ice extent has set records for amount the last two years (30% ABOVE normal) and that overall ice extent for the planet is pretty much normal, I'd say it is pretty much in line with the solar minimum and the PDO shift and AGW has failed utterly to explain or predict it.

"we'd be looking at sea levels rising that much faster than they already are."

Sea levels are not rising at a rate faster than they have for the last few hundred years. the rise is pretty much the same as has been happening since the end of the last interglacial 11,000 years ago (when sea levels were 400 ft lower than they are today - mostly because there was a LOT more ice around - like a block a mile thick extending as far south as Chicago.

Boy talk about clutching at straws ... the arctic was to be ice free according to the chief alarmists (reply: No, they predicted that there was a chance that it could be ice free within the next several years, and perhaps as early as this year) & now you are all high fiving each other for getting close to 2007 ice levels.
Andrew you raise a great point about the SH and glo-BULL warming being less than cooperative at being global. Oh well you will just switch to climate change alarmism if you can get a hurricane or a drought or any other weather event that deviates slightly from normal ... whatever that may be ... but the alarmists will tell use all what is normal and what is caused by the CO2 boogey man!!

Cherry pickers!! try this:

If we are talking about "global" warming.
Why not ask what "global" sea ice is doing???

See: http://www.businessandmedia.org/printer/2008/20080506084437.aspx

Increasing? hmmmm

What about those darn unknown underwater arctic volcanoes:

http://www.livescience.com/environment/080627-sea-volcanoes.html

Mabey an experiment with putting an ice cube in a pot of boiling water and watching it melt would clear things up a little.

Speaking of cherry picking...try telling Australian and New Zealand ski field operators about global warming! Mt Ruapehu is claiming the biggest snow base EVER recorded for the New Zealand ski field with over 4.5m of snow on the ground. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/story.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10527882

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/snow_graph_19_August_Turoa.jpg

Thick cover of snow on the Australian hills too and more coming over the next few days!

What so many people likes to joke about the wrong conclusions of others that nmake an effort to understand and study things?
It just makes em think how such bad-intended some people are.
A cooling trend over the last 10 years may be due to natural variation. However I dont think that the excess of CO2 due to our cars and industry is good. We should stop it and invest in alternatives, cause at least makes my lungs hurt!!

It appears that the melt season is over. The NOAA Arctic camera was showing -8 C Thurs Aug 21. It has been below 0 C for the last week now. Prior to last week it was at or above 0 C for quite a while. Reply: We will soon see if you are correct.

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/latest/noaa1.jpg

I'm sure the 79-00 baseline is used for two reasons:
Decent satellite coverage of the area and a bit of separation from the most recent years data to show trends more clearly. Hardly cherrypicking.

Mark,
You are exactly right. That the sea ice is within 10% of the all time low with 3 or 4 weeks to minimum is very disturbing.

I am also concerned by the low level of sea ice on the Northeast coast of Greenland. (and do tell, what are you two super hero champions of the environment (barf) going to do about it?).

REPLY: oooh, yes yes...Very disturbing....why just last night I had a nightmare that the low level of sea ice in nothern Greenland was flooding the entire East Coast corridor. All this while it was 54 degrees in August. Yep, better call Al to go send his army of tax and cap chicken littles out to defraud hard working Americans out of their pay for the common good. Better do it now, for the children, I say!

Deja Moo. The Feeling I've Heard This BULL Before!!!