European law courts now recognizes AGW!

Not guilty: the Greenpeace activists who used climate change as a legal defence Sep 11 2008:

Protesters cleared of damaging Kingsnorth power station as defence sets precedent for environmental campaigners...

Canadian Ice Service showing new ice formation:
http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS56SD/20080908180000_WIS56SD_0003962840.pdf
and
http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS55SD/20080908180000_WIS55SD_0003962872.pdf

Unless there's localized oceanic heating taking place due to delayed responses to ENSO or some other source, any recent Antarctic sea ice loss is most likely not being caused by Southern Ocean SSTs. Southern Ocean SSTs have been dropping since the mid-1980s. Click on my name.

I have read two interesting reports on sea ice recently. One was focused on the Artic and attributed much of the melt to active undersea volcanos in the region. I have no idea how to interpret that and wondered if you have comment or observations on the validity of undersea geothermal activity (if it even exist) as a factor in the Artic ice melt. Reply: I have not read anything that links this melt off with undersea volcanoes.

The other involved the significant breaks in the Antartic sea ice shelf. It attributes these breaks to the shear mass of additional ice from the recent higher than normal snowfall in the region.

I did not keep the links and apologize for not being able to point you directly to the articles.

Any thoughts on there?

In other words, global sea ice is at 90% of the 30 year mean, and slightly lower than it was in 1995. A few months ago it was 105% of the 30 year mean and close to an all time record maximum.

We now have legal precedent to destroy coal burning power plants in order to attempt to stop these one sigma fluctuations around the mean.
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/cleared-jury-decides-that-threat-of-global-warming-justifies-breaking-the-law-925561.html

Five years ago Hansen said that most Arctic warming was due to soot, but he must have been just kidding.
http://www.pnas.org/content/101/2/423.full.pdf+html

Alaska is melting down, just like Al Gore said!

The predominantly cool temperatures for much of the 2008 Alaskan summer were said to be an important factor in some poor salmon runs on principal Alaska rivers. Beekeepers in southern and Interior Alaska reported almost no production of honey.

The pack ice off Point Barrow proved to be the final obstacle to navigation between the Canadian and American Arctic. During the opening days of the month, three ships headed east to Canada were stuck in the ice off Point Barrow.

http://climate.gi.alaska.edu/Statewide/departures.html

I read about a report from the National Ice Center which is operated by the Navy & Commerce Dept. that some areas that are supposably ice-free based on satellite data are actually not. The reason is that the satellite is interpreting water laying on top of the ice as open water. Supposably some this ice is very thick old ice. Based on this report you have to wonder how accurate these ice reports actually are.

I assume there would have been even more melting if any of the IPCC models had been correct about temperatures this century.

I am trying to understand the down side to an ice-free arctic. We have been told by the alarmists that when this happens (and it is highly likely) then our planet will have reached an irreversible tipping point. This is always characterized as bad news for earth and mankind. But why?

I ran across an interesting article in Daily Tech that portrays a far more optimistic future with an ice-free arctic. From access to immense amounts of new natural resources to improved navigation routes, it seems to me that mankind will reap enormous benefits from an ice-free arctic. What are we supposed to fear?

Here is the link:
http://www.dailytech.com/A+Melting+Arctic+Happy+News+for+Mankind/article12882.htm

Those silly AGW deniers are wrong about sea ice.

They still won't listen.

Some day I'm going to have to become a skeptic...defending climate change is getting far too bothersome for me.

Come to think of it, a warmer planet sounds more pleasant anyway.

Those silly AGW deniers are wrong about sea ice.

They still won't listen.

Some day I'm going to have to become a skeptic...defending climate change is getting far too bothersome for me.

Come to think of it, a warmer planet sounds more pleasant anyway.

Interesting article about poles shifting toward Russia at an accelerating rate.

"In 2001, an international polar expedition revealed that in the recent seven years the North magnetic pole shifted around 300 km (186.4 miles). Currently, it is drifting 40 km (24.85 miles) a year from the Canadian Arctic shelf towards Russia's Severnaya Zemlya islands. Scientists predict the North Pole could eventually be found in South Atlantic. An extensive anomaly area with the magnetic field intensity at around 60% of the predicted value shows the forecast is likely to score.

In the recent 20 years, the planet's magnetic field intensity has decreased by 1.7%, and in South Atlantic by 10%. In the last two hundred years, the Earth's magnetic field has seen a 10% decrease in intensity."

http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20080905/116577165.html

An ice free Arctic doesn't sound all bad...but until the ice actually melts, I think we should chill. Interesting article John. So the earth is undergoing a magnetic reversal?

Patrick Henry quoted the Alaska Climate Research Center's August 2008 Alaska Statewide Summary as follows:

"The pack ice off Point Barrow proved to be the final obstacle to navigation between the Canadian and American Arctic. During the opening days of the month, three ships headed east to Canada were stuck in the ice off Point Barrow."

Might have wanted to clarify that this was the first few days of August....not September. Had me wondering for a second or two as we all know the ice is near its record minimum and not within hundreds of miles of Barrow!

Yep.....it was a cool and rainy summer in much of Alaska. We had several similar summers during my 25 years there and there will certainly be more in the future.

PaulM, then I suppose you would have no problem if greenies trashed your vehicle because they thought it was too hard on gas, or razed your house because it's too large in their opinion. One more nail in the British coffin. Look East folks because this insanity is where we're all headed. Looks like the farther from so-called civilization the better.
Mark, you're finally starting to see the light! Warmer is better, cooling is the real catastrophe. Beware of the wolf in sheep's clothing.

What is the down side to Arctic Ice melt?

Ice reflects heat. Water reflects less heat. Replace the Arctic ice cap with water and the earth won't cool down as much due to ice reflecting heat, so it will warm up more. Other than that the melting of the ice cap will be a resource boon.

Also the Arctic ice cap is adjacent to the Greenland ice sheet. If it melts, this would increase the rate of Greenland melting, increasing sea level rise.

MK: here is an interesting site on how satellites
measure the depth of ice and how you can know the difference between Ice and Snow.
Permafrost Threatened by Rapid Retreat of Arctic Sea Ice, NCAR/NSIDC Study Finds
The rate of climate warming over northern Alaska, Canada, and Russia could more than triple during extended episodes of rapid sea ice loss, according to a new study from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The findings raise concerns about the thawing of permafrost, or permanently frozen soil, and the potential consequences for sensitive ecosystems, human infrastructure, and the release of additional greenhouse gases. KIPP
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/bathymetry/predicted/explore.HTML#grav_anom

paulm,

European court case. That was a well set up and well funded plan by the enviro's and they even planned Hansen into the equation, sweet!

Funny, how we never see them trying that in China or Russia, where the damage is really being done.
Now, there would be a court case that would take a few enviro's out of society for a long time.

Best place to be tried and found not guilty, on the planet, is a european court. Here are some laws that are still in effect in that part of the world that tells you how effective the legal thinking is:

1. It is illegal to die in the Houses of Parliament

2. It is an act of treason to place a postage stamp bearing the British monarch upside-down

3. In Liverpool, it is illegal for a woman to be topless except as a clerk in a tropical fish store

4. Mince pies cannot be eaten on Christmas Day

5. In Scotland, if someone knocks on your door and requires the use of your toilet, you must let them enter

6. A pregnant woman can legally relieve herself anywhere she wants, including in a policeman's helmet

7. The head of any dead whale found on the British coast automatically becomes the property of the king, and the tail of the queen

8. It is illegal to avoid telling the tax man anything you do not want him to know, but legal not to tell him information you do not mind him knowing

9. It is illegal to enter the Houses of Parliament in a suit of armor

10. In the city of York, it is legal to murder a Scotsman within the ancient city walls, but only if he is carrying a bow and arrow

I suspect that 2009 will have even MORE sea-ice compared to 2007 and 2008.

How is it that our moderator hasn't blogged about the Old Farmers Almanac forecasting global COOLING for the next few decades? Is the Old Farmers Almanac not established enough to be mentioned or discussed on this site?

Established in 1792 (and boasting 18.5 million readers), the Old Farmer's Almanac is North America's oldest continuously published periodical.

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/news/2008-09-09-farmers-almanac_N.htm

"We at the Almanac are among those who believe that sunspot cycles and their effects on oceans correlate with climate changes," writes meteorologist and climatologist Joseph D'Aleo. "Studying these and other factor suggests that cold, not warm, climate may be our future."

New Hampshire, home of the Almanac, saw the most snow in 134 years and missed an all-time record by 2.6 inches.

I don't get it Brett. You just posted that the reason you haven't posted any skeptic stuff recently is because you haven't found anything.

This article is 2 days old and clearly focused on the AGW target.

How did you miss it?

MarkB.
Coincidentally, my best friend was an Intellegence Officer in the Marines, in desert storm, and I asked him what he did, and he said he was a forward and even went into Iraq, and he wouldn't say more. He fixes Cameras, and other digital equipment. He's one of these guys who's IQ would go's through the roof. Unbelievable mind. Yes, I agree with most of what you said, and I will work on explaining myself more clearly. Good advice. I don't like cling ons, and others who go with the flow. That is what is embarrasing from my side. Hansen going to this protest in England was so out of line, he should get thrown in the dumpster. Ya' I believe in personal freedom with responsibility. Jerks are Jerks. God didn't give me a brain to act like an Idiot. The more I speak to skeptics, the more respect I have for most of them. CO2 and GHG"s are not that far out to me. But the hole in the ozone shows that man causes havoc with nature. Ozone is higher up and filters ultraviolet, but CO2 absorbs in the IR, in the troposphere. That is not hard for me to understand. But Science beets Philosophy hands down. I want to learn as much as I can, and it's so infinite. Honesty is a good quality.
KIPP

I know I've mentioned this once but this bears repeating: Deniers reject scientific publications, mock the peer-review process, and completely dismiss rigorous scientific studies in their ongoing War on Science. However, they'll be quick to reference the Farmers Almanac.

The Farmers Almanac? Are you kidding me?

Who needs peer review or the scientific method. Better yet, who even needs meteorologists? We have the Farmers Almanac! LOL

I'm sure you guys also believe Nostradamus was a scientist. Heck, if the groundhog predicted global cooling, you'd start citing that, too. Anything to promote your agenda.

What happens during an Ice Free ( further reduced) arctic ocean?

Here's my take:

The atmospheric pressure will be much higher above the arctic than average, compared to an ice covered arctic.

This will result in a shift to a stronger AO (Arctic Oscillation). See Cool Phase in link:

http://jisao.washington.edu/ao/

So.. one might ask themselves, is this not a netagive feedback? I think yes.

If we ponder a little further.... one might ask what happens when the arctic is subjected to even less ice cover than what we have seen.

Could this mean that we would see a notibly sronger AO cool phase? Could this cool phase be strong enough to create a winter so cold, that the next summer doesn't melt all of that nasty snow that falls?

And yes... this could plunge us into an ice age with just one good, well timmed, NATURAL sequence of events, first the arctic ice melt, then the winter that didn't melt.

has anybody else attempted to digitize Cryosphere Today�s graphs for each individual Arctic sea?

I just did and the results are not exactly identical to the values reported for the whole Northern Hemisphere. What's going on?

KW,

Reversal? Sure looks that way. If the Canadian Arctic has been shifting 30 miles south every year and is now 150 miles closer to where the equator was, and the equator is now 150 miles south of where it south of where it was 7 years ago, the Sun positioning to the continents and weather patterns would certainly be affected.

If it continues on the same course, in 50 years, the Arctic will be 1,500 miles south of it's present position placing Greenland where Labrador is at the present time and the magnetic pole will be in Siberia.

The magnetic pole has already wandered out of Canada's 200 mile nautical border.

Carbon is not causing the warming.

Once again, the predictions for the intensity of the latest hurricane were way off the mark. People were forecasting Ike to be a category 4 as recently as yesterday - ignoring the cooler water in the northern Gulf of Mexico which is getting dragged in front of the Hurricane's path. Fool me once .....

Kipp, The article that you linked on satellites doesn't explain anything at all about measurements of ice and snow. The paragraph explains the use of satellites to determine bathymetry (water depth) and magnetic variances to assist in bottom mapping.
The problem that was reported this summer with using satellites to measure ice extent is that the onboard tool to measure ice extent is a spaceborne radar (what satellite,frequency and resolution they use, I don't know). Generically speaking, radar does not penetrate water -- it's reflected back immediately. It's the same reason that we don't use radar to detect submerged subs or mines. So if there is any measure of meltwater on the ice, it registers as water, not ice.
I suspect, but don't know, that solid ice-cap with pools of meltwater are being reported as pack-ice. It would look the same or similar.
Perhaps some organization can pay for electro-optical services or multi-spectral imaging that might be effective (I don't know). It's a lot cheaper to ask PH's Brit who's stuck in the ice to give us an eye-witness weather report.

PH-maybe Hansen was right about the soot causing the arctic warming or at least the late arctic ice melt kipp observed in satellite photos the smoke from the california wildfires pluming west into the pacific and then northward to the arctic this soot from the fires would have been falling mid to late july with the accelerated melt following shortly therafter

these fires were started by lightning so im not sure that this qualifies as an AGW event

Howdy Tribe! As I remember The Farmers Almanac was one of the first books my mother ever showed me and it was fun and a good learning experience.
The Farmers Almanac is an American tradition like Norman Rockwell paintings. These are art's, and should be considered one of those things we like to call Americana. If you need to dissect every forecast then you don't get it. People's relied on the Almanac for centuries. We need American Traditions. It's part of our American Heritage.
KIPP

MarkB:Good points.I'll fact check my answer and get back to you. I think they have a way now to detect the difference of ice and water, but i'll check it out. I would think they must know the difference, to make such declarations, but with Hansen at the helm, God only knows, and he's not talking. KIPP

JohnD:
From 1950!!!!
Twice daily for nearly fifty years since, scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration�s Mauna Loa Observatory have been measuring atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, a by-product of fossil fuel combustion and the chief greenhouse gas responsible for global warming. Beginning in 1958, their continuous record, known as the Keeling Curve, documents an average annual increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide of 0.44 percent.
For the first couple of years, it seemed that Keeling�s hypothesis might be mistaken; his data initially produced a graph with a serrated pattern, showing wide yearly fluctuations in the levels of CO2. �He immediately saw that there was an annual biological cycle,� says Dr. John Barnes, director of NOAA�s Earth System Research Laboratory, Mauna Loa Observatory. �Plants grow in the spring and summer, so CO2 gets sucked out of the air and then returned in the fall and winter. That in itself was a significant discovery. But it turned out that these serrations are only small variations in CO2 levels; the more troubling long-term increase is starkly represented by a steadily rising curve, proving Keeling�s theory true. Considering temperature rise; it was an exact match. Even with the smallest serrations".Real Science.
KIPP

Besides the Farmer's Almanac, the arthropods also seem to be predicting a harsh winter!! My girlfriend informed me that she found a pure black whooly worm the otehr day, which supposedly presages a harsh winter.

MK,

If melt-water pooling atop thick ice shows up as "no ice" in certain statistics, then I imagine there will be a definite jog seen, as ice re-freezes, for this melt-water will abruptly show up as solid ice.

Barry L,

I recall reading somewhere that some think ice ages involved an ice-free Arctic Ocean. This would fit in with your idea of a changed AO. I suppose one could see it as negative feedback reaching a "tipping point."

Kipp,

The Farmer's Almanac makes the mistake of trying to predict storms to the day, or at least week. I remember one year they got the pattern right, but were about a week off, so every time they said it would be clear it was stormy, and every time they said it would be stormy it was clear. Therefore they got 0% on their forecast even though they got the pattern right.

However one year they produced an almanac which was amazingly accurate. It happened over a hundred years ago, and may be legendary. The story is that the editor, working against a deadline, produced the weather forecast while delirious due to a high fever. After the fever subsided he was embarrassed, and changed the forecast in later copies. However it turned out the first forecast was nearly 100% accurate, including the forecast of the biggest storm of the decade.

It goes to show you long-range forecasting involves parts of the brain we don't fully understand. Although some will debate this, I feel Accuweather's Joe Bastardi is the best long range forecaster I've come across. Even when he's wrong on specific details he nails the general trends. And sometimes he jokes, "Others are just jealous they can't hear the voices I hear."

Kipp,

Where did I mention 1950 or anything else you were talking about?

Kipp,

Now that you bring it up:

You said: " carbon dioxide, a by-product of fossil fuel combustion and the chief greenhouse gas responsible for global warming"

Theory, at best!

More evidence that the media is in the tank for man-made global warming. In an AP report today entitled, "Arctic Ice Reaches Second Lowest Seasonal Minimum," data from the NSIDC in Boulder, CO stated that 1.74 million square miles were ice covered. This was then compared to 1.59 million square miles of ice cover from 2007.

Instead of reporting the 9.4% increase in ice cover from 2007 to 2008, the article went on to state, "Given recent trends, triggered by man-made global warming, scientists warn that within five to 10 years the Arctic could be free of sea ice in the summer." Well, the "recent trend" is up so how did they reach their conclusion?

Then this: "Even though the sea ice didn't retreat this year as much as last summer, "there was no real sign of recovery," said Walt Meier of the snow and ice data center." The fact is that it didn't retreat at all! I guess a 9.4% increase representing 150,000 square miles isn't enough to qualify as an expansion. For reference, the state of California has land area totaling 155,973 square miles. Now, that's a lot of ice!

The article could have more honestly been entitled, "Arctic Sea Ice Up 9.4% from 2007." Or, "Arctic Sea Ice Recovers Easing Fears Of Global Warming." Or, "Arctic Ice Cover Grows By Size of California." But no, they chose to report this fact as bad news, prediciting dire consequences for the future.

Here is a link to the article:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,423581,00.html