Arctic Summers will be Ice Free within 20 Years, according to Expert
Mark it on your Calendar......
We have been talking about Arctic sea ice fairly frequently over the past couple of years, as it is a pretty good indicator of the state of the longer term global climate. We have also seen some vague predictions about what the state of the Arctic sea ice will be in the future. New research by Peter Wadhams, who is a professor of ocean physics at the University of Cambridge and one of the world's leading experts on sea ice cover in the Arctic states that the Arctic will indeed have ice free summers within 20 years, according to the Reuters article.
According to Wadhams, most of this melting will take place within a decade, even though some experts say that global temperatures will continue to level off of fall slightly for several years before resuming a steady climb.
Wadhams compared ice thickness measurements taken by a Royal Navy submarine in 2007 with evidence gathered by the British explorer Pen Hadow earlier this year.
Hadow and his team on the Catlin Arctic Survey drilled 1,500 holes to gather evidence during a 280-mile walk across the Arctic. They found the average thickness of ice-floes was 1.8 meters, a depth considered too thin to survive the summer's ice melt, according to the article.
"The data supports the new consensus view -- based on seasonal variation of ice extent and thickness, changes in temperatures, winds and especially ice composition -- that the Arctic will be ice-free in summer within about 20 years, said Wadhams.
--------------
Some of my own backyard weather.........
Even though this is just your classic backyard weather, I had to post this picture from today looking across the street from my house and toward the west. It's October 15th in central Pennsylvania and it is snowing in the middle of the day! Just a little slush on some of the cars at this point with a temp of 34 F. This is as early as I can remember and we may see more of it tomorrow and tomorrow night. Our elevation is 1,250 feet.
About an hour later, looking out toward our back yard........







Comments (54)
Nice pics! where did fall? go we had like two weeks of fall then went to winter. Sounds like another scare tactic gloom and doom! Why will it be gone in 20 years? The last two years it has been increasing. And whats going on with the record antartic sea ice? I thought it was global warming all we ever hear about is the northern Hem not the southern.
Posted by Joe | October 15, 2009 1:03 PM
Once all the arctic sea ice melts, Al Gore will defy the laws of physics, like his theory, and walk on that water.
Posted by Anonymous | October 15, 2009 1:41 PM
"This is as early as I can remember and we may see more of it tomorrow and tomorrow night. "
You're giving global warming deniers some more talking points with those types of statements. October snow in PA isn't all that unusual. Pittsburgh has seen it as early as September. Non-urban areas are probably more likely to see sticking snow.
Reply: Give it rest Mark. It is snowing here on Oct 15th and now we have an inch, we could very well set a record early snow here in State college from what Jesse Ferrell said. I wanted to share the images with my readers. Note, I also said backyard weather. I am not trying to give anyone talking points, but if they want to complain about the cold and snow, so be it. True, snow is not unheard of in October, esp. late October, but it is only the 15th and looking out my window I am pretty amazed. Sorry I got excited, must be the weatherman in me. Brett
-------------
"October snowstorms are not unheard of in Pennsylvania. Williamsport, Erie and Harrisburg have all seen mid-October snowfalls of at least an inch in the past, according to the Northeast Regional Climate Center at Cornell University.
The earliest snowfall in Pittsburgh was on Sept. 23, 1989, when a trace was recorded, Parrish said. The earliest accumulating snow was on Oct. 18, 1972, when 1.8 inches fell. "
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/storms/2005-10-25-pa-first-flakes_x.htm
Useful report detailing renewable energy resources by type and by state:
http://www.newrules.org/sites/newrules.org/files/energyselfreliantstates.pdf
With the proper investment, renewable could supply all of our nation's energy needs. Bad news for the fossil fuel industries. I'd personally like to see more posts on low carbon technologies and approaches on this blog.
Posted by MarkB | October 15, 2009 2:23 PM
Brett - I did a quick check on Wadhams & he proclaimed the Arctic may be ice free in 2008 citing the historic lows of 2007 and yet we've seen significant increases in the summer sea ice minimum for two years in a row. I wonder if his most recent prediction is as accurate as his 2008 scare mongering. The internet is a fantastic tool for revealing the past sins of those who would deceive us!!
Reply: Do you have the link Rick?
PS nice yard but I've got you beat big time on the snow ;-)... I would bet Calgary is over 20cm in the past 4 days although it is finally warming & quickly melting.
Posted by rick | October 15, 2009 2:27 PM
Please stop giving this nonsense any credibility.
LOL The Catlin comedy tour was a farce. Their real time bio data was on a loop and thus fake. Which is what the whole expedition was.
"Hadow’s expedition encountered temperatures of -44F (-42C) along the way, and the vast majority of the trip was below 32F (0C). He didn’t encounter vast areas of water along the way, and in fact encountered ice conditions far worse than he expected." Their equipment failed, they sat in the tents letting the drifting ice take them across the arctic. The weather was snowy and ice and had trouble with frostbite and hypothermia. As for 1500 holes???? Who had time to go outside? They were sitting in their tents trying to keep warm. Finally they had to call in an airplane to rescue them far short (some 700 kilometers)of their goal. Let's hope somebody picked up all the trash they left on the ice.
There was no science in the Catlin fiasco. It was publicity show. If this is the best science folks are using for predictions, they should be ashamed of themselves.
Please read this
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/15/top-ten-reasons-why-i-think-catlin-arctic-ice-survey-data-cant-be-trusted/#more-11702
Again, There is NO science in the world of AGW, just a bunch of folks spewing their political agenda. Data? Who needs data?
Why confuse themselve with the facts when their minds are already made up????
Posted by ted | October 15, 2009 2:32 PM
I was under the impression from several past posts on this blog that the sea ice melt was due in a large part to ocean circulation and not air temperature. Anyway, with all the melting, we are still not underwater. The savings in fuel to shipping will save lots of energy and dollars.
Posted by Elliott Althouse | October 15, 2009 2:43 PM
Brett,
I'm merely pointing out that it isn't the earliest snowfall on record in your part of the country, which is what you implied. Memories can be selective (as we've seen here). A weatherman should be on top of these things.
Reply, Yes it is.......
It’s official. According to the National Weather Service in State College, the earliest local snowfall in recorded history has a new mark -- Oct. 15, 2009
Read more: http://www.centredaily.com/news/local/story/1569125.html#ixzz0U26lSub0
Posted by MarkB | October 15, 2009 2:59 PM
Why do they feel the need to lie. Their map published on the news in England tonight showed their path of 270 miles from the ice edge to the north pole. If my memory serves me correctly they didn't get within a 100 miles of the pole and all their measurements were taken on the egde of the ice sheet because they weren't walking fast enough to out pace the speed of the ice movement. Just lying little ;;;;;;.
Posted by stephen richards | October 15, 2009 3:01 PM
Hahahahaha, (me wiping the tears from my face from laughing so hard). Wow, that was perfect timing Brett. MarkB do you ever eat the eggs once you pull them off of your face? It would be the green thing to do.
mc
Posted by mc | October 15, 2009 3:28 PM
"Reply, Yes it is......."
Beating the old record by 3 days. Stunning memory. Note the "global warming" comments on that thread. Expect a few similar ones here. This blog is entitled "Global Warming Center". It seems a "Weather Center" blog is more appropriate for a post on interesting backyard weather events. Some folks are confused enough distinguishing between local weather and global climate. Reporting on such an event on a climate science blog (something Watts routinely does, although clearly more selectively) doesn't help.
Reply: Too bad.
"The earliest snowfall in Pittsburgh was on Sept. 23, 1989, when a trace was recorded, Parrish said."
Pittsburgh still has you beat by 3 weeks. I stand by my statement. Snow in mid-October isn't that unusual in your part of the country.
Reply: I would say 3-8 inches in centre county on Oct 16th with widespread power outages and downed trees is unusual Mark.
Posted by MarkB | October 15, 2009 4:07 PM
All of you folks really don't get it - global warming creates more energy in the system which causes more volatility which makes more extreme events.....so, the record early snowfall is proof that global warming is indeed happening!
Posted by rd | October 15, 2009 5:23 PM
Blog name: "Global Warming Center"
Post Category: "Effects of Global Warming"
Post content: Discusson of declining Arctic sea ice projection followed by pictures of an early snow event
For the record, I'm not implying any ill intent, Brett. As you said, you got excited about a weather event happening literally in your backyard, as opposed to searching weekly for cold or snowy weather events happening somewhere in the world to report on to provide an emotive argument against global warming (something done routinely elsewhere). Nonetheless, it should be obvious that the message it sends is the same, regardless of intent.
mc,
Your egg missed (nice toss though). My statements "it isn't the earliest snowfall on record in your [Brett's] part of the country" ("part of the country" generally meaning beyond a city) and "October snow in PA isn't all that unusual." are accurate (snow in Pittsburgh Sept. 23rd one year).
Posted by MarkB | October 15, 2009 5:35 PM
MarkB why don't you spend your time on a site that caters to the AGW propaganda.Say for instance Romm's site,you will be accepted more there than this site.Which by the way has by far a more skeptical following than most AGW sites.
Your in a minority now Mark and your rants are tiresome,due to the fact that you have no ability to accept comment from skeptics.It's insane to say ALL skeptical data and views ( as you do on a daily basis)are wrong.
Brett,although he is an AGW believer also has the intelligence and ability to view both sides of the debate and gives us all the chance to express ourselves.Why would you want it any other way?
Debate exposes the frauds,and I have a feeling your afraid of being exposed.
Posted by HarryL | October 15, 2009 5:43 PM
as you requested ... http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/peter-wadhams-every-time-i-visit-the-arctic-the-ice-gets-thinner-855407.html
Posted by rick | October 15, 2009 5:48 PM
Predictions have no credibility unless they live up to verification, in meteorology or climatology.
Only when a prediction verifies can it be deemed accurate or worth lending credence. Until then, you are rolling the dice on the craps table.
If your prediction is right, be the first to stop driving your car, heating your house, and going back to stone age. Everyone else will enjoy there electricity and internet while you bathe in the local duck pond.
Posted by cake | October 15, 2009 6:51 PM
Brett: I envy your space. I Must get out of the Northeast, where I can take some good still lifes.
I love P.A.and Virginia. You must be near the Appalachian Mountains.I know that AccuWeather is a media Company selling Weather, and if your were non-profit, maybe there wouldn,t be this blog either.
The point is that only after you posted the last month or two about the submarine findings,did it make more obvious that studying the sea ice extent
doesn,t mean so much if your not studying the depth of Ice. The fact is, all of this fresh water going into the North Atlantic, will with Greenland have an impact on the saltier gulf stream as it moves up towards us and down through the North Atlantic and Europe. The Europeans are very worried that it will eventually lead to a much colder climate for them. If you look at the latitude in France, it would get as cold as Quebec. Another sign of Global Warming is rapid climate change. Unusual Weather, more storms and floods and drought, just more extreme weather events.You once posited a question about where did fall and spring go. Well here in Connecticut as I line up jobs for the fall colors,fall seems extremely short. In fact as you probably have noticed,temps have dropped from 60,s to 35 at night in one week.. It,s good to see a trampoline in your backyard, instead of a balloon you made so your kids could find another way to get in trouble, like today's news. What a story of two nutcases in Wife Swap, the TV reality show, where they adopt a mother who is a psychic, and the new DAD put;s the lady in a copper cage than wires her head to find UFOs, while the kids let go of a helium balloon, and Police are chasing it through Colorado. That,s better than the ONION. KIPP
Posted by Kipp Alpert | October 15, 2009 7:28 PM
I believe the Germans surveyed the ice thickness using radar from an airplane during this same time period as the Catlin fiasco. They surveyed a lot more ice, and were surprised that it was a lot thicker than previously thought. Anyone got a link?
Posted by JamesD | October 15, 2009 8:39 PM
Hi Brett,
Thanks for posting these. Two things, first I hope Peter Wadhams is still around 20 years from now so we can witness him and his followers eating his words. There`ll be plenty of ice in the Arctic during summer in 20 years, I guarantee it. In fact I'll put $10 grand on the table if anyone wants to bet against me.
Second, I read the earlier posts on early autumn snowfalls - funny thing is that they all occured recently (1972, 1989, 2006). Snow in October in PA IS unusual MarkB even if not unprecedented. Just like 90 degrees in October - very unusual yes, but it has happened.
Posted by Bill | October 15, 2009 8:42 PM
Here's a snip:
"The research aircraft Polar 5 �ended today in Canada�s recent Arctic expedition. During the flight, researchers have measured the current Eisst�rke measured at the North Pole, and in areas that have never before been overflown. Result: The sea-ice in the surveyed areas is apparently thicker than the researchers had suspected.
Normally, ice is newly formed after two years, over two meters thick. �Here were Eisdicken up to four meters,� said a spokesman of Bremerhaven�s Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research. For scientists, this result is still in contradiction to the warming of the seawater [sic]." And here's a link: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/04/28/inconvenient-eisdicken/
(Note that ocean heat content is actually falling)
I think eisdicken is "ice thickness"
Looks like the survey was after Catlin. So maybe in that short of a time, the ice got a lot thicker? LOL Actually Catlin was more like "reality TV" like WUWT describes it, not science.
Posted by JamesD | October 15, 2009 8:51 PM
ted | October 15, 2009 2:32 PM --- You could learn the history of climatology from Dr. Weart's book. All soundly established.
Brett --- Hadley Centre, some time ago, pointed out that more and more extreme weather is in sotre. You're just seeing the beginnings of it so far.
Posted by David B. Benson | October 15, 2009 9:23 PM
MarkB at 2:59pm
HaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHa.....MarkB do you ever smile, or are alarmists devoid of humor.
Yea Brett!!!!!!!
I don't care if I burn to a crisp in 20 years due to AGW, this will last me a lifetime.
Great pictures Brett.
Posted by Mary | October 15, 2009 9:53 PM
MarkB is right -- this isn't as unheard of, Brett.
I never said snow in itself is unheard of. It is very unusual to get accumulating snow in State College PA in mid October. We just woke up to 3-8 inches across the area. I would say that is almost unheard of.
Washington, DC (which is much further south than State College) picked up measurable snow on October 10, 1979. Some of the old fogies on this blog probably remember that it snowed in Baltimore during the World Series that day.
In any case, our Deniers, in their usual predictable fashion, will be posting a lot of backyard weather over the next days, along with their usual McCarthyist paranoia.
Posted by Mark | October 15, 2009 10:07 PM
Actually, this is great news, since only last year we were told the Arctic would be ice-free not in 20 years but just four years from now.
Aussie alarmist of the Year Tim Flannery even warned of a possible ice-free Arctic this year, only to find ice cover actually increased:
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/frozen_explorer_still_claims_warming/
Anthony Watts has listed the Top 10 Reasons why Hadow�s findings cannot be trusted, from incomplete research to the publication of false data. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/15/top-ten-reasons-why-i-think-catlin-arctic-ice-survey-data-cant-be-trusted/
Posted by IanP | October 15, 2009 10:16 PM
Hey, I was sitting in the dentist office today waiting to get my teeth cleaned and picked up this magazine called "Outside". Never heard of it before, but it appears to be a magazine about the great outdoors, have no idea what political winds blow through it.
WARNING to Alarmists - don't continue to read on, you will just get your shorts in a knot.
Anyway, there was this article on Greenland which was kind of interesting because apparently the locals are looking forward to Global Warming.
http://outside.away.com/outside/culture/200908/greenland-global-warming-1.html
"Global warming isn't bad news for everybody. In Greenland, the big melt could mean a flood of new revenue from mineral and oil deposits, previously trapped under ice. Flush with prospects, the locals are talking about making a final break from their benevolent colonizer, Denmark. Call it the Thaw Revolution."
"In chemistry, there's the concept of activation energy: Add heat, get a reaction. In Greenland, there's the reality of global warming: Add heat, get an independence movement. Warming is melting Greenland's ice, which is extending its shipping season and revealing massive oil and mineral deposits, which is making possible a mining boom and the royalties that go with it, which is convincing Greenland's people that eventually they may not need the $600 million in annual subsidies they get from Denmark - more than $10,000 a person. Which is convincing Greenlanders that soon they may not need Denmark at all."
"Climate change means oil finds and zinc mines and also better fishing: cod, herring, halibut, and haddock migrating north as the ocean warms. It means disaster tourists: people coming to see glaciers slide into the sea. (Since 2004, cruise-ship arrivals have jumped 250 percent.) It means farming: potatoes and broccoli and carrots growing where they didn't grow before, more grass for more sheep. It means gushing rivers: an endless supply of freshwater that Greenland proposes to sell to a thirsty world."
"Of course, it also means doom for distant countries like Tuvalu and Bangladesh, which may go under because of Greenland's melting ice cap. The cap covers 81 percent of the island, and if it melts entirely (something that's unlikely to happen before the end of this century) global sea levels could jump 20 feet. Since 2003, the cap has shrunk by more than a million tons, so much that the underlying bedrock rises four centimeters each year, like a ship slowly unweighted of its cargo. The land is rising faster than the sea."
..................
"Peering into a bay full of icebergs at sunset, I hear one of them chat up an attractive blonde by rattling off facts about the coming doomsday. His tone is solemn, his voice almost a whisper. "I don't mean to scare you," he murmurs. It's the first time I've heard someone try to use climate change to get someone else into bed. "
Posted by Mary | October 15, 2009 10:34 PM
Separately from anything whatsoever to do with climate change, I want to say to Brett that you live in a gorgeous setting. The top image, of the barn that is apparently across from your driveway, is picture postcard material.
I hope that from time to time you have a chance to simply stand (or sit) and savor the beauty of where you live. Life gives us too-few pleasures, and I strongly encourage you to enjoy and celebrate joys like this.
Sorry to be so sentimental -- something about that picture captures what I love so much about the Pennsylvania mountains.
Reply: Thanks Tom. Unfortunately this freak snowstorm is going to ruin a spectacular peak of fall color. It was going to be the best in years.
Posted by BrooklineTom | October 15, 2009 11:34 PM
So this is fun..
One bunch of scientists say the arctic will be ice free in less than 20 years.
Just coincidentally the ones supporting the IPCC's efforts to get a Kyoto II agreement in December.
hmmmmmm. who to believe.
Posted by Gary | October 16, 2009 12:02 AM
A slightly different perspective:
http://www.climatechangefraud.com/home/33-enviro-extremists/5370-frozen-explorer-still-claims-warming
Excerpt:
Actually, this is great news, since only last year we were told the Arctic would be ice-free not in 20 years but just four years from now:
Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years.:
Posted by Anonymous | October 16, 2009 12:27 AM
I guess H.Leighton Steward theroy holds a lot of water.
The site just posted his comments on this site a few days ago.
Wander how much he has investagate the arctic.
Yeah Co2 is good for the environment.
I just wish he was 8 years old.
So he could tell about it, when he's adult
Posted by Mike | October 16, 2009 3:57 AM
Hi Brett
You're damned if you do and damned if you don't, nice photos anyway.
20 years seems ambitious to me and the Met are giving it til 2060...
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2009/pr20091015b.html
Then again, there seasonal forecast didn't see the cold that has descended over central Europe this October, so who knows.
David
Posted by DavidS | October 16, 2009 6:22 AM
Member of the Fraud Perpetrating Club Mark B says:
You're giving global warming deniers some more talking points with those types of statements.
(WAH WAH WAH, PEOPLE DON'T AGREE WITH ME! THEY MUST BE SILENCED).
October snow in PA isn't all that unusual. Pittsburgh has seen it as early as September. Non-urban areas are probably more likely to see sticking snow.
Brett Says:
Reply: Give it rest Mark. It is snowing here on Oct 15th and now we have an inch, we could very well set a record early snow here in State college from what Jesse Ferrell said. I wanted to share the images with my readers. Note, I also said backyard weather. I am not trying to give anyone talking points, but if they want to complain about the cold and snow,
(WHICH I WILL)
so be it. True, snow is not unheard of in October, esp. late October, but it is only the 15th and looking out my window I am pretty amazed. Sorry I got excited, must be the weatherman in me. Brett
REPLY FROM KNUCKlES:
GIVE IT TO 'EM, BRETT!!!!..LOL!!!! Time to put these LIERS in their place. WITH THE TRUTH!!!! THERE IS NO GLO-BULL WARMING. YOU LYING FRAUD PERPETRATING LIERS!!!! What's the matter MarkB, Can't handle the TRUTH???? Giving the deniers talking points. Yeah, you bet, buddy. And we are NOT GOING AWAY, EITHER!!!! Even beyond when your precious CRAP AND TRADE get's shot down.
MARK B AGAIN SAYS (to cover his backside): I'm merely pointing out that it isn't the earliest snowfall on record in your part of the country, which is what you implied. Memories can be selective (as we've seen here). A weatherman should be on top of these things.
REPLY FROM KNUCKLES: Hey MarkB. No. You are pointing out that just because it's snowing in State College, PA this early doesn't mean that the earth isn't baking hot. So you can further your lies and your agenda driven fraud. So you can't say "this is back yard weather." Yet you still haven't proven that CO2 is the culprit for ANY FORM OF CHANGES IN THE WEATHER. You are a lier, MarkB. You are full of it. And we are not buying your crap anymore. Got it?
Remember. Unless you have a melting glacier in your neighborhood, it's all back yard weather.
Love and Kisses,
Knuckles. Proud member of the MOB.
TO THE HOUSE AND SENATE:
NO! TO CAP AND TRADE. NO! TO GOVERNMENT RUN HEALTH CARE, WHERE YOU WILL BE PROPERTY OF THE STATE. OR YOU ARE FIRED!!!!!! F-I-R-E-D FIRED!!!!!!!
Posted by From The Desk Of The Knuckle Dragging Flat Earth Philistine | October 16, 2009 6:31 AM
Perhaps in 20 years we won't have to be subjected to these stupid forecasts. I guess it won't matter anyway unless some of us manage to survive December 2012! :)
Someone on what used to be one of my favorite cable channels stated last evening that these unusual cold events are characteristic of AGW. OK, and a high pregnancy rate is characteristic of a community where celibacy is generally practiced!
As was said a long time ago "You can fool some of the people.......etc."
Posted by Rick Fanning | October 16, 2009 8:41 AM
It looks to me like there were only 39 data points used for the result of 1.8 meters. If they drilled and I assume measured 1500 holes why only use 39? http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/assets/downloads/CAS%20Snow%20Ice%20measurements%20-%20Final.xls
Another odd thing is that Canadian news is reporting that Pen Hadlow indicates that the ice he was on will not make it through next summer. They were ther last spring so I wonder why that ice survived summer 2009 and what is so special about summer 2010.
On the funny side they have video of the expedition removing an ice auger and it must be 5 meters long. No body asks how they turned handle when it was so far up in the air. I guess they just kept adding and drilling thought the water to make sure there wasn't sunken ice down there. You never know what an ice expert can find north of 60.
Posted by Dandy | October 16, 2009 8:50 AM
Nice yard Brett. I like the big sky myself. We just murdered about 20 tress ourselves to open up the yard a bit, and to cut down on the amount of yard work.
Up here at 43 degrees north latitude, New Hampshire, we too are freezing our baggettes off, despite being closer to the equator than the north pole. The snow is flying as I type this.
Like many, you are paying more to heat your home due to the cold. The alarmists want you to pay even more to get you to stop heating your home, in order to stop the supposed manmade global warming hyperbole.
Does this make sense to you? Are you willing to pay more to heat your home, despite already paying more to heat your home, based on junk science?
How does Brett feel about cap and trade?
Posted by RICH | October 16, 2009 9:27 AM
It's a shame that you would post this without injecting the facts of the findings....
The data sampling was collected in 2007 which any weather hobbyist knows was a anomalous year for Arctic ice loss, which like one poster stated above, was caused by wind currents...not warming. Why isn't the current recovery of +/- 10/12% also being noted? Looks like we just want hits on the website. You would get just as many if you said fact or fiction and throw both sides of the arguement out. At the least, it would inform the public instead to both sides of the arguement. The way the article is writtne, can misinform many...and that is dangerous.
Posted by Erik | October 16, 2009 9:39 AM
I am quite happy with decreasing ice. It is growing ice that concerns me. Unfortunately, ice is presently growing. Hopefully warming will resume before we hit some cooling "tipping" point and fall into ice. Sweating requires less energy than shivering and eating has become an addiction for me.
Crops can be grown in the heat, but nothing can thrive when spring is late and fall early. Brett is right to be concerned with early winters. Cold can destroy an otherwise healthy plant. Healthy, comfortable plants are what makes this planet viable. They labor for us and deserve a little warmth in return. It is their needs that must be addressed, not ours. GK
Posted by G. Karst | October 16, 2009 1:07 PM
"Penn State National Canceled! (LRC Boards) Half a foot of snow in mid October was apparently too much. "
http://www.letsrun.com/
Posted by Elmer | October 16, 2009 3:29 PM
Erik,
Brett does a decent job of being even handed. But I must confess, I come here mainly to read the entertaining comments. Much of the material is gleaned from other sites. I do appreciate the time Accuwx people spend on updating the material.
Posted by JP | October 16, 2009 3:35 PM
I believe I'll keep this article for a few years, and we'll let history judge what kind of "expert" Wadhams is.
I'll just add it here to the top of the growing pile of alarmist predictions ... whoa, I had to stand on my tiptoes. Almost couldn't reach.
Posted by Journalista | October 16, 2009 9:27 PM
"Wadhams compared ice thickness measurements taken by a Royal Navy submarine in 2007 with evidence gathered by the British explorer Pen Hadow earlier this year."
Ain't "peer review" grand? Let's hear it from all the defenders of climate science how only "peer reviewed science" matters.
Posted by John M | October 17, 2009 9:46 AM
MarkB,
You just lost any credibility you had on this site. What a childish stance you took in stating that this snow event in State College, PA is not rare. As proof you cite some article in which Pittsburgh and other areas in PA recorded snow in late September or early October. The most amount of snow recorded, by your own admission, was 1.8". State College's previous record for snow on that same day in October was 0.1". That means in the past 100+ years of record keeping, State College had never had more than 0.1" of snow on that date. Yet, you say the 7" is not rare? What absolute foolishness.
By your ignorant logic, 7" of rain in any area within a 24 hour period is not rare as long as there was 0.1" of rain in that same area in the past.
You were rightly lambasted on this site for your puerile behavior. Your lone defender was Mark. That speaks volumes.
Posted by ToddC | October 17, 2009 11:58 AM
***"All of you folks really don't get it - global warming creates more energy in the system which causes more volatility which makes more extreme events.....so, the record early snowfall is proof that global warming is indeed happening!"***
Amazing mentality! Now cold weather record events are being claimed on GW???
We got 68-84" of snow @ 10K feet and above last week here in the Eastern Sierra. A record setter no less.
But of course, it is all due to, you guessed it, GW!
If that is the case, than I say "Gentlemen, Start your engines!" I was 1000" of snow this season as it will end any possible drought and most assuredly give Los Angeles and all of California the water that it needs.
Unbelievable!
Posted by Rick from the Sierra | October 18, 2009 8:53 AM
October snow in PA, especially the central highlands, is definitely not unheard of. In fact, flurries/dustings in the Appalachians typically happens in most Octobers. This even was more intense, but all things considered, it's not jaw-dropping.
Reply: I did not say that dustings or flurries are unheard of in October. That happens plenty of times, esp. the second half of the month. But what happened around State College late last week was almost unheard of and set a new record for earliest snowfall.
People need to be looking at the long term climate, not short term weather events. Look the evidence and statistics and decide for yourself weather Global Warming is real or false. This writer remains undecided.
Posted by Quasar | October 18, 2009 1:27 PM
again nothing but speculation,global warming zelots were saying 20 years ago we would have already lost cape cod, florida, etc to all the do godders out there set your sites on something to help man kind,there are children and family;s on the street and others who cant pay there heating bills or rents, focus on helping them instaed of scaring (lying ) about global warming.
Dan B mansfield , ma
Posted by Dan B | October 18, 2009 5:14 PM
ToddC writes:
"You just lost any credibility you had on this site. What a childish stance you took in stating that this snow event in State College, PA is not rare."
Strawmen arguments are childish. My quotes:
"October snow in PA isn't all that unusual."
"it isn't the earliest snowfall on record in your part of the country"
Both are accurate statements. I understand the urge for some individuals to distort the arguments of others and then attach them, but credibility is lost in doing so.
"You were rightly lambasted on this site"
I'm attacked personally by deniers routinely on this site. Such fervent behavior (echoed in much of the blogosphere) often says more about the character of the attackers than the target.
HarryL writes:
"Which by the way has by far a more skeptical following than most AGW sites."
Deniers troll nearly all blogs on climate science. This site isn't that unusual in that regard. Their irrational views have a home on blogs where there are no requirements to support such views and where they feed off of other like-minded individuals. I wouldn't hold up the number of skeptical folks in the blogosphere as a badge of honor. Related...
http://deepclimate.files.wordpress.com/2009/08/climate-science-research.gif
Posted by MarkB | October 18, 2009 6:29 PM
So-Called 'Experts' strike again...
ted:
"Please stop giving this nonsense any credibility."
stephen richards:
"Why do they feel the need to lie."
rd:
"All of you folks really don't get it - global warming creates more energy in the system which causes more volatility which makes more extreme events.....so, the record early snowfall is proof that global warming is indeed happening!"
Mary:
"Hey, I was sitting in the dentist office today..."
Rick Fanning:
"Perhaps in 20 years we won't have to be subjected to these stupid forecasts."
Journalista:
"I believe I'll keep this article for a few years, and we'll let history judge what kind of "expert" Wadhams is."
Deniers and their drivel, or sarcasm (rd) that others may not get, and Mary-TMI The dentist...?!
Very convincing folks!
Posted by idecline | October 19, 2009 3:21 AM
GKarst-
Get off it... are you a plant or what? Plants will survive when humans are gone. Your priorities (and delusions) are confused. We need plants, they DON'T need us !
Posted by idecline | October 19, 2009 3:24 AM
So I guess that record early snowfall is important.....BUT record high global temperatures, oceans and land are just anomalies?
The deniers are really reaching today, defending 'backyard weather' records and yet denying volumes of climatological records in regards to 'Global Warming'.
You can't have it both ways, if 'backyard weather' records are valid, then invariably 'climate' records are more accurate. This is a statistical fact.
p.s.- The snowstorm was caused by...A- Weather manipulation (Russians,CIA, or aliens), B- cosmic rays, C- El Nino(he drives all weather according to Bob Tisdale), or D- Siberian high has shifted to North America side of Arctic this year.
rd- nice sarcastic remark, but actually it is true. See Chaos theory.. also basic Physics, more energy in a system allows for more possible permutations(energy levels); i.e.- Global Warming can and will contribute to 'Climate Change' meaning more extreme weather is a direct result of more heat(energy) in the system. Yin/Yang... look it up...Neils Bohr did !
Posted by idecline | October 19, 2009 4:51 AM
idecline | October 19, 2009 3:24 AM
Thanks for re-iterating my point... We NEED plants. Therefore their needs supersede ours. Warming increases plant mass, our food source, whether it is meat or vegetables.
I cannot correct your inverted model of the universe. It must be trashed by yourself and rebuilt using what we know of reality.
It is not about plant survival! It is about plant life (food) thriving, hence animal life thriving.
A predators survival depends on it's prey. If the prey is flourishing... then so will the predator. These are basic and understood relationships... I wonder why you cannot seem to grasp them? Are you that ideologically inflexible?
BTW: Much of plant DNA is incorporated into human DNA. We are very much what we eat. The real problem is some humans seem to have minds that are comfortable remaining in a 'vegetative state'. GK
Posted by G. Karst | October 19, 2009 12:21 PM
Idecline:
Nice Rants! Very entertaining.
I am guessing you are one of the few that buy into the Last Ditch, Hail Mary, argument that Global Warming Causes Global Cooling.
There has to be a few I guess.
Can you reconcile all of these as well?
over 4500 new snowfall, low temp, and lowest max temp records set in the USA this last week
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/18/a-cold-start-to-fall-over-4500-new-snowfall-low-temp-and-lowest-max-temp-records-set-in-the-usa-this-last-week/
Posted by Gary | October 19, 2009 2:09 PM
idecline wrote, "...El Nino(he drives all weather according to Bob Tisdale)..."
For the generalized impacts of ENSO on the weather patterns of the U.S., refer to the NOAA website:
www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats2/enso/elnino/
Of course they don't differenciate between traditional El Nino events and El Nino Modoki.
Have a nice day.
Posted by Bob Tisdale | October 19, 2009 5:57 PM
Mark B.,
What is the problem with me keeping the story and seeing if the guy's right or wrong?
Shouldn't somebody check up on things?
Posted by Journalista | October 19, 2009 8:13 PM
Gary-
You are talking 'Backyard Weather' , I'm talking about long term influence. There is a difference!
Posted by idecline | October 21, 2009 2:19 AM
"Warming increases plant mass, our food source, whether it is meat or vegetables."
To a point, estimated to be around 450ppm CO2. After that, plants are no longer able to take in more CO2. Same thing happens with oceans.
Let's consider the whole process rather than cherry picking parts of it to support some ideology.
'Knuckle' is worried about snowfall in PA in October, that it somehow disproves climate change. Big deal, that's not highly unusual at all, nor is it news. Knuckle consistently makes the fatal error in assuming that what's happening in his backyard is similar to what's happening worldwide and that each successive year MUST be warmer than the last (especially in his backyard). He also makes the fatal error in assuming that putting greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere results in ONLY warming, not fundamental climate disruptions that result in warming AND cooling, with a LONG term warming signature. It's never been about ONLY warming to those of us formally educated in the science...but maybe it has been to the media and pop culture, and that's too bad.
Posted by SteveH | October 27, 2009 10:48 AM
SteveH | October 27, 2009 10:48 AM
"To a point, estimated to be around 450ppm CO2. After that, plants are no longer able to take in more CO2."
I can't begin to say how wrong that statement is! I can only recommend that you start here GK:
http://www.co2science.org/subject/g/summaries/temp+co2ag.php
Posted by G. Karst | October 27, 2009 6:24 PM