No Surprise, GISS says October was Relatively Warm
The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) has just released their combined, global land(actual surface stations)/ocean temperature anomaly data for October 2009. To no surprise, the month was warmer than normal, with a global temperature anomaly of +0.66 C or +1.19 F. The last time GISS had a global land/ocean temperature anomaly that was colder than normal was back in February of 1994. Satellite measurements of the lower troposphere that I recently blogged about put October 2009 at +.28 C or +.50 F. Keep in mind, the satellite record only goes back to 1979, while GISS goes back to 1880.
Here is a visual look at the GISS October 2009 land/ocean anomalies. Note most of the warm anomalies were from Asia up through the Arctic region, while much of North America was chilly.
![]()
The map below shows the latest annual land/ocean temperature anomaly for the November 2008-October 2009 period.
![]()
The figure below shows the global land/ocean temperature anomaly plot (red line) going back to 1996. Looking at this alone, you can see that even though the temperatures are still clearly above normal, they pretty much leveled off between 2001 and 2009.
![]()
But, when you open up the range and go back all the way to 1880, the graph tells a different story.
![]()
All images are courtesy of GISS and updated as of 11/13/2009.







Comments (28)
A hint of sarcasm in the title....maybe Brett is already anticipating the blogosphere backlash.
"But it was cold in North America", "Hansen, GISS,...conspiracy". "not accurate(doesn't show cooling)", "Ice is bad, so this is good" etc.
Have fun coming up with 'new' excuses.......Denial away..
Posted by idecline | November 17, 2009 9:04 AM
Surprise Surprise.
GISS "Adjusted" records read warm.
Anyone remember the graphs showing how GISS "Adjusted" historical temps down while "Adjusting" recent Temps UP?
Copenhagen is coming.
Posted by Gary | November 17, 2009 10:11 AM
Anyone interested in how these clowns get & handle their data should read E.M. Smiths work at Musings From the Chiefio http://chiefio.wordpress.com/
It is most interesting how GISS has "treated" the data & the conclusions Smith is forced to arrive at regarding the data handling.
Whether you are in the alarmist or skeptic camp you should read his work ... especially the segment where he determines that all the California thermometers have moved to the beach & only 4 remain ... unbelievable stuff IMHO.
Posted by rick | November 17, 2009 10:21 AM
Took me a few minutes but here it is.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/06/28/nasa-giss-adjustments-galore-rewriting-climate-history/
Is it possible that Hansen is just a little biased in his research?
Just a little?
Posted by Gary | November 17, 2009 10:23 AM
Californian-firefighter-warns-of-increase-wildfires
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/6537436/Californian-firefighter-warns-of-increase-wildfires-due-to-climate-change.html
Posted by paulm | November 17, 2009 10:27 AM
Brett,
You're making the same mistake a few other bloggers make routinely, in comparing raw anomaly values (GISS and RSS) side by side without noting they are offset from different baselines. GISS is offset from the 1951-1980 average. RSS is offset from the 1979-1998 average. So of course GISS will generally be comparatively much higher. When doing this comparison, it's appropriate to make the necessary baseline adjustment, described here:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/notes#baselines
Reply: Mark, I am not making any mistake. I have noted the differences between the GISS and RSS (satellite) on many occasions in this blog. Brett
While adjusted monthly anomalies vary between data sets, the the satellite record matches pretty well with the surface record over the long haul.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Satellite_Temperatures.png
Posted by MarkB | November 17, 2009 1:02 PM
"To no surprise, the month was warmer than normal, with a global temperature anomaly of +0.66 C or +1.19 F"
+.66 C from what? Can someone please tell me what the temperature is supposed to be? For all we know we just steadily approaching that actual normal from a cooling trend 300 years ago. Do we accept readings from 1880 as absolute fact?
Posted by Jeremy | November 17, 2009 2:22 PM
At least there is some important research going on in Antarctica now: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/as_odd_new_zealand_antarctic_whiskey;_ylt=AiYy_Os6P7mmV_L6bR6Zs2Ss0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTNub29xamc5BGFzc2V0A2FwLzIwMDkxMTE2L2FzX29kZF9uZXdfemVhbGFuZF9hbnRhcmN0aWNfd2hpc2tleQRjcG9zAzEwBHBvcwM3BHB0A2hvbWVfY29rZQRzZWMDeW5faGVhZGxpbmVfbGlzdARzbGsDY29tcGFueXNlZWtp
Its important to some of us anyway.
Posted by rd | November 17, 2009 4:24 PM
Brett:"Reply: Mark, I am not making any mistake. I have noted the differences between the GISS and RSS (satellite) on many occasions in this blog. Brett"
You're not noting it here:
"To no surprise, the month was warmer than normal, with a global temperature anomaly of +0.66 C or +1.19 F. The last time GISS had a global land/ocean temperature anomaly that was colder than normal was back in February of 1994. Satellite measurements of the lower troposphere that I recently blogged about put October 2009 at +.28 C or +.50 F."
Not all readers know that these raw anomaly values aren't remotely comparable, unless you do the baseline adjustment mentioned above in the woodfortrees link (not that hard to do). It's a helpful suggestion going forward. As it stands, your above paragraph is misleading.
Posted by MarkB | November 17, 2009 4:26 PM
You're making the same mistake a few other bloggers make routinely, in comparing raw anomaly values (GISS and RSS) side by side without noting they are offset from different baselines. GISS is offset from the 1951-1980 average. RSS is offset from the 1979-1998 average. So of course GISS will generally be comparatively much higher. When doing this comparison, it's appropriate to make the necessary baseline adjustment, described here:
There is a bigger difference. RSS does not add 0.6F to the raw numbers to get a higher figure than the 1930s.
Posted by Anonymous | November 17, 2009 5:07 PM
Using the Global-ocean temp graph as a reference,if I'm reading the graph correctly, the temp has risen .8 degrees in 120 years! Some how I just can't get as excited as Al Gore is doing, but than I'm not making millions on my excitement. For us to destroy our economy over cap and trade based on this data is just unbelievable. You do have to realize that I just hauled 3/4 of a ton of coal today. I used 3 ton last year to supplement the use of natural gas to heat my home.Thanks Brett for what you are doing!
Posted by John | November 17, 2009 5:47 PM
Gary | November 17, 2009 10:11 AM --- WUWT is sure to have it wrong. Whatever it is.
Posted by David B. Benson | November 17, 2009 5:50 PM
Now here is somthing that actually is important to the debate.
CERN has begun the much-anticipated CLOUD experiment.
Obviously the IPCC political scientists will do everything they can to discredit this important research, but the people are not all stupid and the truth Will out.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/11/16/cern_cloud_experiment/
Excerpt:
The cosmic ray effect - a factor of the background CBR bombardment itself, and the relative strength of the earth and the Sun's magnetic shields - shows a strong correlation between temperature, CBR and is extraordinary.
Posted by Gary | November 17, 2009 11:15 PM
WARNING!!!!
You NEED to read this:
http://www.oilforimmigration.org/facts/?p=4416
The Cap and Trade Bill that has passed the House of Representatives (That NOBODY READ) will force you to apply for an efficency licence to get permission from the EPA TO SEEL YOUR HOME!.
If it is not up to THEIR standard, you will have to upgrade it with Water and Energy saving add ons that could cost you many thousands of dollars.
You will not have any say or choice.
Welcome to the State controlling your life.
And kiss your standard of living good bye.
The Sheep of Europe rolled over for this.
Will the american people be as easily subjugated?
MarkB will happily bend over.
Will you?
Posted by Gary | November 18, 2009 12:00 AM
It is just so amazing that the conservative conspiratorialists have managed to jimmy the weather such that the only two places colder than normal are most of the United States and western Europe.
Dick Cheney must still be behind this.
Jeremy: the anomalies are relative to the 1951-1980 mean. But regarding "recovery" from the Little Ice Age (which I presume is what you meant), the Maunder sunspot minimum ended ~1750 and the Dalton ~1830-1840, so when the Sun went back to "normal", this is a marker for the modern climate record. Since the instrumental record starts nearly 40 years later, any residual "cold" was pretty much over.
Posted by Oakden Wolf | November 18, 2009 12:25 AM
Rick, that takes an understanding of math and AGWers don't have it. After all, they have been following Hansen and Gore.....
Posted by kamatu | November 18, 2009 8:54 AM
Can I encourage you to purchase some EUAs. (I think there might be a UK organization also, but havent found it yet).
Its about 12E per ton at the moment. Visit ...
TheCompensators* » What we do
If we can get a few thousand, dear I say million, to purchase a few, then this will have an immediate direct big impact on reducing CO2 emissions and making a big splash in the media.
BTW this is also a better mechanism for offsetting personal emissions than say purchasing airline offsets. It is more direct, transparent and immediate.
Please pass on the link to anyone who you think might be interested (or not:),
Posted by paulm | November 18, 2009 1:40 PM
"Gary:
WARNING!!!!
You NEED to read this:
http://www.oilforimmigration.org/facts/?p=4416
The Cap and Trade Bill that has passed the House of Representatives (That NOBODY READ) will force you to apply for an efficency licence to get permission from the EPA TO SEEL YOUR HOME!.
If it is not up to THEIR standard, you will have to upgrade it with Water and Energy saving add ons that could cost you many thousands of dollars.
You will not have any say or choice.
Welcome to the State controlling your life.
And kiss your standard of living good bye.
The Sheep of Europe rolled over for this.
Will the american people be as easily subjugated?
Will you?"
Nobody will let that happen. If it does you can say you told me so. I am sure there will be a grandfather clause or the issue will be addressed in some other way. As for homes built from now on, thats probably a different story. The Republicans will fillibuster that issue in the Senate if it has not already been resolved. I have the highest confidence in that.
I wouldn't worry about it too much.
Posted by Ryan | November 18, 2009 4:56 PM
"http://www.oilforimmigration.org/facts/?p=4416"
LOL...I think the real question we have for people like you, Gary, is about what you're doing on extremist, right-wing fringe websites such as this one.
It's always fascinating to watch the 'freedom and liberty' teabaggers use fear-mongering tactics -- far worse than any tactics employed by, in their words, 'The State' -- to scare the public into supporting their crackpot fantasies.
Posted by Mark | November 18, 2009 7:47 PM
Ryan;
I cencerly hope you are right.
But I fear that you are not.
Read the link.
These idiots are egar to sell you down the drain.
And many on this blog will happily push the flush lever.
Scarry indeed.
Posted by GAry | November 18, 2009 8:09 PM
PaulM:
I admire your devotion to the religeon.
Really.
But just so you know.
The more you advocate carbon credit SCAMS and silly CO2 reduction schemes, the more I will drive around needlesly and turn the heat up.
Since I honestly believe CO2 is good for the planet (as most scientists do) I feel it is my responsibility to offset the damage you and your cult are doing.
Just saying.
Posted by Gary | November 18, 2009 8:20 PM
One Tiny Little Problem...
All that Very Dark Red up at the North Pole:
There are no thermometers of record there for GIStemp. They base those far north temperature anomalies on "ice estimates"...
So what you have here is a nice dark red "polar ice estimate" vs a really cold dark blue North America.
I'll take the real data over the "ice estimate", thanks...
Posted by E.M.Smith | November 18, 2009 11:10 PM
Gary | November 17, 2009 11:15 PM
Thanks for the link to the Cern cloud experiment. Your right, it is an important investigation and could shift our climate paradigm. Some interesting graphs, which again, point to a lack of correlation of CO2 driving temps.
Most of us will be on the same page once CO2 is removed from the "driver" hierarchy.
That is not the only exciting development at the Cern, as the LHC will be returned to service, any day now.
Considering AGW hypothesis relies on the quantum problem of photonic heating and generation, work at the LHC is relevant to climate forces also. GK
Posted by G. Karst | November 19, 2009 9:44 AM
so Mark?
Do you support having to pass an efficience test before you can sell your house?
Its no fantasy, it is written into the Bill.
Just because the link was from a "right wing" site does not alter the FACTS.
Posted by Gary | November 19, 2009 4:20 PM
It's always fascinating to watch the 'freedom and liberty' teabaggers use fear-mongering tactics -- far worse than any tactics employed by, in their words, 'The State' -- to scare the public into supporting their crackpot fantasies.
REPLY: Oh, you mean like "WE HAVE TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT GL0-BULL WARMING NOW!!!!! (TAX TAX TAX) OR THE PLANET WILL EXPLODE!!!!! AND THE POLAR BEARS WILL DIE!!!! AND THE RAIN FORREST WILL CEASE TO EXIST!!!!, ETC. ETC. ETC.....WE MUST SAVE THE PLANET FROM OURSELVES!!!!!!!1
...
Posted by From The Desk Of The Knuckle Dragging Flat Earth Philistine | November 20, 2009 7:36 AM
The upslope in the curve from 1920-1945 might parallel with the increased burning of gasoline.
The upslope in the curve from 1980-present might parallel the rise in wealth and cars and coal burning power plants in China...
Or not! Guess most of the bloggers above figure not.
Posted by RP | November 20, 2009 11:30 AM
"Just because the link was from a "right wing" site does not alter the FACTS."
Sure it does. Right-wing sites twist the 'facts' all the time, such that they becomes lies.
"Oh, you mean like "WE HAVE TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT GL0-BULL WARMING NOW!!!!! (TAX TAX TAX) OR THE PLANET WILL EXPLODE!!!!!"
I don't recall any scientific studies stating the planet will explode. There is a need, however, to act now, simply because this country has a habit of kicking the can down the road in tackling problems.
Posted by Mark | November 20, 2009 12:30 PM
This global warming issue is like a many-sided object that can be viewed from many angles. Unfortunately no one knows the correct angle to look along to come up with the right answer. I find it alarming how defensive the UK people are when asked to show the data they used to arrive at their results... very suspicious. I also found it interesting when one of the top dogs used the term "trick" to describe the handling of data. Being a physicist I recall using the term trick to mean a clever method for solving a complex problem...never a method for massaging data. There is too much money involved here to expect honest dealings of this issue. Using the NYT as the ultimate news source is also biased as we know the NYT is an activist newspaper that has agenda written all over it.
Posted by Glenn | November 30, 2009 4:01 PM