So the 'anomaly' is in fact the way nature works, right?

Last time I checked, air that is compressed, warms. And, high pressure areas move air and moisture around by forcing air and it's entrained moisture to the surface from high altitudes, right?

The real thermodynamic question would be where did the air come from to sustain the exchange of mass and the air was cooled by how much, which allowed how much heat to be rejected into space?

Nice pretty picture, which I would say is great to scare the living tar out of people and can be used to promote man induced climate change.

Too bad it totally displays the thermodynamics incorrectly.

The next question would be is with the heat energy expelled from the ocean via the 'El Nino' and the blocking effect of the high pressure area over Canada, what is the new path for the energy to migrate to the north pole or is there no path and the heat and energy will just reverberate through the lower latitudes?

The satellite series tend to show more noise in general and a higher sensitivity to ENSO than the surface series. Any use of this one month to 'prove' global warming will be as foolish as those graphs reporting that all of the 20th century warming had been wiped out after the rather cold month of January 2008. Here's an example of the stupid (careful, it burns): http://www.dailytech.com/Temperature+Monitors+Report+Worldwide+Global+Cooling/article10866.htm

This maps explains much.

Although it may have been cold where many people live that also live in Blogsphere (US, Europe,Russia, etc) it was definitely not colder globally.

Joseph D Aleo sent an open letter to Washington describing the collapse of global warming (not just AGW theory) citing the above mentioned places having RECENT heavy snow and brutal winter. It's true, they did, but looking at this set of data, you can't say that warming has collapsed globally RECENTLY, especially since a record was set.

Yet another reason I have a hard time accepting ant-AGW documentation now matter how many pieces I review. Both sides fall into the same trap by looking at local events, using short time spans, and error of omission (what is the temp and winter like elsewhere?)

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/SENDING_A_MESSAGE_TO_WASHINGTON.pdf

Brett

Yep. The data don't lie.

They didn't lie about the cooling from 1998 to last year, when the published global temperatures by the AGW lobby said the earth was still warming.

And they didn't lie about the extra warm January in 2007. And they don't lie about January 2010. It's warm - very warm.

The Grumpy Old Man is in the mood for sooth-saying.

First prediction: Many of the AGW lobby will now temporarily forget their distrust of satellite-measured temperatures and insist that this result supports their belief that the earth is warming as a result of man-made CO2. They will forget that distrust, that is, until the satellite-measured temperatures fall, just as they did from 1998 to last year. If the data don't support their beliefs, then the data will be obviously wrong, and will be supplanted by carefully homogenised temperatures from an AGW-friendly source.

Second prediction: Some of the other responses to this post will provide supporting evidence of the truth of the first prediction.

First Speculation: The warmer Arctic temperatures caused by the negative Arctic Oscillation will result in thinner than usual sea-ice. Spring and Summer will therefore bring a collapse of Arctic sea-ice, similar to the one that occurred in 2007. Which will be cited as further evidence of AGW.

Second Speculation: Global temperatures will drop dramatically in the coming months, just as they did in 2007 after the record January temperatures of that year. And the AGW lobby will suddenly mistrust the satellite record once more. NASA will publish their own terrestrial records, homogenised and averaged beyond all recognition, which will diametrically contradict the satellite record.

We'll be able to assess the two predictions after reading all the responses to this post. The speculations will take the rest of the year to assess.

So global mean temperature is beyond record levels, yet with the solar activity at very low levels (a recent uptick won't effect global temps for a little while), and the el Nino strength falling short of 1998's strength, "skeptics" have to come up with some other excuses - ones of course that don't implicate human activity (God forbid the overwhelming evidence on this is ever considered).

What makes things difficult for deniers is the fact that Roy Spencer's own UAH data shows an even warmer January. So when deniers use the "it's snowing heavily in DC so global warming data is fabricated" argument, they are essentially calling their own beloved skeptic a fraud.

UAH, however, has a dubious seasonal cycle that tends to peak in winter, so RSS is perhaps closer to reality in this instance.

Global warming is projected to lead to more extreme precipitation events (observed as well). Perhaps the record atmospheric and sea surface temperatures, combined with an extreme negative Arctic Oscillation (which pushes Arctic air far south and leaves places like Greenland with shattered record high temperatures) is contributing to the major snow event in parts of the lower 48. It's certainly consistent with what is expected of global warming. Dr. Jeff Masters has a great well-referenced post on this.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1427

What's odd is global warming deniers believing not only that winter snow is evidence against global warming, but that very heavy snow events is somehow even greater evidence, as if extreme precipitation events are contrary to what is expected.

Continental U.S.: +0.040 C

So, all of the US is colored blue and the anomaly is positive? Please explain.

The planet is on fire. But let's not dwell on it. We'll find some bit of bad data and scream about it so we don't have to face reality.

If we get anymore Global Warming we will all frieze to death.

Stu,

I remember that inane DailyTech article from Asher at the height of a la Nina. It was highly popular among the denialosphere. "Century of global warming wiped out"...let's use Asher's brilliant and scientifically sound method to examine where global mean temperature has headed since:

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:2008

The "century of global warming" has been revived, and more. Even more interesting is that Asher attributed the lower January 2008 anomaly to declining solar output. Well, TSI is even lower now. Hmmm...

Dear DoctorDave, please look closely to the map, most of the half south is in black - that is normal or near normal. Most of the south east however is blue - cooler or colder (below the average) as you wish. But all of the US north is in the red (warm side). Not to say it was warm, but we're talking above the average.

And don't forget, Alaska is (still) part of the continental US - that part is either black or red - so normal to warmer. So that does count as well. All in all, maybe you felt this january as cold (or cool) at your place, the US was a small tiny bit on the warm side.

And that's the way it goes. But please , look at what is happening in the continental north east and up to Greenland and behond, it is warm and really warm. I reported rain (instead of snow) in those regions many times since december, but most of you prefered to ignore those situation. Well that's the results.

But ... this is only one month for this year and this decade. Continuous trend, or singularity? So far i see it as a continuous increasing trend - figures are demontrating it anyway.

It's warm, warmer, and warming.

sorry Brett but anything that comes out of our government sponsored agencies regarding climate issues no longer has any credibility...they have lost our trust just as the people in the U.K have lost faith in Had/Cru and other gov. climate entities.

All global warming information is controlled by the powers that be, therefore in the interest of a GLOBAL TAX SYSTEM the powers that be will continue to push false data at us. The fact is, that until we learn to cap volcanoes we will not be able to do a dang thing about CO2... if it is in fact a problem at all.... which I doubt ! This is all about making the rich richer and more powerful, there can be no doubt about that !

With all of this global satellite temperature data going against the global cooling arguments presented by the skeptics and deniers, and obvious panic sets, I anticipate yet another fabricated conspiracy scandal is already in the works in the back rooms of the purity test approved, "real-American" Heartland Institute and will be ready for the next upcoming convention.

Back in 2008 Joe D'Aleo, the self promoted "king" of the skeptics who frequents those annual Heartland Institute conventions, made this brilliant global temperature forecast: "Looking ahead, put that together with the flip of the PDO in the Pacific to cold and you have alarming signals that this cooling of the last 7 years will continue and accelerate."

from http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/2008_ends_spotless_and_with_266_spotless_days_the_2_least_active_year_since/

To Mr. D'Aleo's dismay, the acceleration he forecasted back in 2008 appears to be happening in the opposite direction. At what point do Mr. D'Aleo's continuing series of blown forecasts of accelerating cooling trends become ridiculous and when do they actually begin to affect his credibility? In know, he always has his fallback arguments about all those major snowstorms hitting DC just so he does not have to answer the questions about the more obvious global temperature increases.

Then there is Doctor Dave, who after seeing the latest global satellite temperature data (where in an earlier thread, the Grumpy Old Man declared is the most reliable global temperature data), asks the ultimate question:
"So, all of the US is colored blue and the anomaly is positive?"

never seeming to fully grasp the physical concept that the total surface area of the U.S. represents only 1.89 percent of the total surface area of the globe.

Box of Rocks-

Question #1- Answer. NO. But the 'mean' is simply that, the center of the distribution of data. Anomaly is what it describes, variation from a mid-point.

Question #2- NO. Way off base, high pressure are slowly moving masses of sinking dry air and have no moisture source.

Question #3- ????. This question shows your mis-understanding of the atmosphere. The 'air' doesn't come from anywhere. Thermodynamics is the problem, it DOES not explain the atmosphere because many other forces are at work. The atmosphere is not a glass box containing non-reacting gases!

Question #4- Again??? A bad question has no answer, for the flaw is in the question. There is no path.
Tao for now.

LIES, LIES, LIES, LIES, LIES. LYING LIARS AND THE LIES THEY PERPETRATE. LIARS. LIARS LIARS LIARS. FRAUD FRAUD FRAUD PERPETRATING LIARS. CRIMINALS AND LIARS. Need we say more.

THE PLANET HAS A FEEEEEE-EEEVERRRRR. YOU LIARS!

MarkB

You got it right in the first paragraph, Skeptics is the correct phrase to describe someone who is Skeptical about the claim that CO2 is causing the Earth to warm.

No one denies that it's happening, so the term Denier is mute as a description.

According to Dr. Masters, it will get warm and cold and dry and wet depending on where you are?
That pretty much covers all his bases doesn't it... and you wonder why people are skeptical?

Fascinating. How many record months have we had in recent years? These data certainly are consistent with what climate science has been telling us.

MarkB,
Thanks for your voice of reason.

Sean Hannity and Inhofe have been emoting about Al Gore and all the snow. So dumb.

Let's start calling AGW "Global Weirding"

"Global warming" is pretty much a misnomer. Our weather isn't always getting warmer, but it's getting a lot weirder...Hunter Lovins,created the term "global weirding" as a much more descriptive term for what's happening to our weather patterns than the "global warming" or even "climate change."
Washington Post

You are correct. Weird precipitation events have been part of theory for at least a decade.

Repeat after me: Global Weirding
Global Weirding
Global Weirding

The planet is on fire. But don't let facts get in the way of your opinions.

Doctor Dave:
The US west coast and Alaska was well above average in January. In fact, warmest January on record for Seattle.

Brett,
Thank you for the map. It is a very usefull picture when the crowd of Global Warming deniers is repeating their lies about the IPCC and their poor reasonning about snow in Washington as evidence of non global warming.
We are short of time to cut our CO2 emissions and all these attempts to delay action put us in a serious threat.

Doctor Dave, I think you mean "So , all of the US is colored blue [except the parts north of a line from about northern California to Baltimore, which are red to yellow ...and south of that line, the parts that are black, not blue]

So what is actually blue are the states of the old confederacy plus some of the southern rockies

The +0.4C for the continental US,[including AK I assume, since it is part of the North American continent- otherwise they would have used 'contiguous']would come from the summing of a pixel by pixel multiplication of [the area represented by a single pixel] by [the temperature anomaly for that pixel] -which apparently comes out to +0.4C

As a resident of northern NH I can attest to the fact that it has been a relatively warm and snowless winter so far.

But if you think you can do a better job of calculating the anomoly for the continental US by eyeballing the picture in the post, more power to you.

Roy Spencer is Rush's offical climatologist. Did he tell Rush?

Regarding recent weather, what's happening in Greenland is quite an amazing meteorological event (less so from a human perspective since few live there). This is brought on by a very strong negative Arctic Oscillation and the broader record January global warmth.

Greenland Narsarsuaq, for example, is running more than 30 degrees F above average and daily record highs (which run in the low to mid 40’s) are being shattered by 10 degrees. Usually daily records are broken by a degree or two – not by that much. Temperature-wise, this is far more significant than the somewhat below average temperatures in the eastern portions of the United States.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/BGBW/2010/2/9/MonthlyHistory.html

I wonder what kind of effect this anomalous event is having on the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Here are global anomalies from the past week.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/rnl/sfctmpmer_07a.rnl.html

Doctor Dave,

The positive anomalies are just that -anomalies. The AO has been pretty much in the negative since December. That means the relatively higher pressure over the Artic is advecting or pushing the air masses that form there equatorward. A block of high pressure builds (in this case in the vicinity of Greenland), and the attendent subsidence dries and warms the air beneath it. This means that the cold air the builds over the polar source regions moves out before it can settle in. Thus, the very areas where frigid polar air forms actually is enjoying a "mild" winter. Rest assured, the temperatures are anything but warm. A positive anomaly of say +6 deg C means that the average lower tropesphere temp is -28 deg C instead of -34 deg C.

For me, what I find interesting is the warmer subtropics. El Nino can exaplain the Pacific, but look at North Africa and into East Asia.

Hello.
I live in Northwest Spain,in Asturias. I work here as tourist guide. Since 5 or 10 years ago some seagulls from Delaware, this the name of the specie, come here to spend the winter, just a few. But this year the number increased in a level never since before.
I thought that the birds knew that the winter was going to be so cold in the east of the USA, so they flew to avoid it, and I told it to my tourists.
Here in Asturias we use the holy tree to know how will be the winter.
I just wanted to tell this
Thank you.

All of the US is not blue. The PNW set records for consistent warmth, and Alaska is still a part of the US.

For the most part, the warmth where I live in the PNW and the storms in the east are due to El Nino. It's unclear whether AGW plays a role in El Nino, but consider this. El Nino consists of a warming ranging from a half degree to maybe 2 degrees for a strong one, in one part of one ocean, thousands of miles away. Clearly small temperature changes, even in just one area, can cause enormous impacts.

So even if AGW sensitivity is on the low end of scientific calculations, the impact could be enormous.

"The planet is on fire."

Yep, no question about it. It's "reality".

Snow up to our eyeballs and more than has been seen in the mid-atlantic in over 100 years, yet the planet is on fire. Do you guys ever stop, even for a second, and actually THINK about what you're saying, what you're relying on?

The planet might, in fact, be warming some, but a few years of data measured against the eons of time of earth's existence is hardly conclusive of anything.

Right now, it's DANG COLD outside and has been for weeks and weeks...this coming summer, it will get DANG HOT...those living in actual reality will continue to understand why this is....

Joe h:

"All global warming information is controlled by the powers that be, therefore in the interest of a GLOBAL TAX SYSTEM the powers that be will continue to push false data at us. The fact is, that until we learn to cap volcanoes we will not be able to do a dang thing about CO2... if it is in fact a problem at all.... which I doubt ! This is all about making the rich richer and more powerful, there can be no doubt about that !"

Is this a parody? I recommend Denial Depot, you'll fit right in!

So idecline what is a 'hadley cell' and why is heat transported from the equator to the poles?

Box'o'rox

Your initial questions and response to idecline is a string of logical non-sequitors.

The 'Anomoly' being studied is the difference of the measured temperature, in one geographic location, to the average temperature of that location, over the specified time span.

So if the average temperature in Frostbite Falls MN in January is -15F and this January, the average temperature was all the way up to -10F, the anomoly is +5F (or +5 Rankine if you want to be precise)and it will show up as a red or yellow dot on the map

This post has nothing to do with transport of heat or moisture thru the Hadley Cell cirulation process, it is a comparison of the most recent temperature to historical averages (all measured by satellite- not tree rings or ice cores)

But yes, compressing air will warm it up (that is how you get ignition in your diesel engine), but I would like you to tell me how much 1 lb of air would heat up if you increased the pressure from 28"Hg to 30"hg. And explain your assumptions. And what does this have to do with the TLT temperature anomaly?

"...Note the incredible warmth over the eastern and northern half of Canada."

Hi Brett,

That warming is in K, which equates to 1.01953 F. Not a really big anomaly for one month. A pretty picture,but no data for huge areas (the Poles, the Himalayas, South America...). Also the TLT (lower troposphere) measurements depicted in this image are highly experimental IMHO, based on weighted averages for near-limb and Nadir images. I see all kinds of issues with those kind of measurements.

Bottom line, no news...

Jose

Reply: Sorry Jose, you are not converting properly. It actually ends up to at least 8 F or more above normal. That is news, even for one month.

Moosonee, Ont was 8.3 F above normal for the month, for instance. That's even real surface data.

Will someone please explain how satellites gather this data from 200 miles up in orbit? Are computer programs used back on earth to interpret "raw" Sat data? Who designs the programs, how are the programs told to interpret the data the receive?

Jim,

read this:

http://www.remss.com/data/msu/support/Mears_and_Wentz_TMT_TTS_TLS_submitted.pdf

for an explanition on how it works. Please let Carl Mears and Frank Wentz know if you have any criticisms or upgrades of the remote sensing systems they describe in the paper.